Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiny
You're right about the gerrymandering. But that's something Democrats have done a lot better than the Republicans, at least at the federal level. They've managed to get more than their fair share of Congressional seats most of the time since at least Truman. Furthermore the Democrats will probably come out on top in the redistricting game this year. California may now be more heavily gerrymandered than Texas. Virginia is looking at going really medieval, in a way that would cut representation from 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans to 10 Democrats and 1 Republican.
Otherwise claims that Republican moves to "restrict voting" will hurt Democrats in Texas are bogus, certainly for 2026. Some of the changes are designed to save money. And IF they do make voting harder, it will work to Democrats' advantage. Here's the ratio of Republican to Democratic Primary voters in each election going back to 2010, according to ChatGPT.
2010 2.2:1
2012 2.5:1
2014 2.4:1
2016 2.0:1
2018 1.5:1
2020 1.0:1
2022 1.9:1
2024 1.6:1
2026 estimate 0.96:1
Please note that during the Trump era, from 2018 forward, Democrats were more engaged than they were before Trump. Democrats are mad as hell this year, as reflected in marginally more Democrats showing up to vote in the primaries than Republicans. If you did have to jump through hoops to go vote (and you don't -- that's just propaganda spread by the Democratic Party and Democrat-backed MSM) then the Democrat is more likely to jump.
Perhaps you could help me understand this. Is the argument that many Democrats are too lazy or uninterested to go to the effort to vote so you have to hand it to them on a silver platter? I sure don't believe that. Many Democrats appear to though if you take them at face value.
I note that Turner believes there are a lot more Democrat voters in Texas than Republican voters, which isn't reflected in the numbers above. I didn't look at his links, but don't believe his numbers. They don't agree with actual election results or the number of people voting in the primaries.
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I was out picking up lawn fertilizer when it hit me that I wrote about Texas Independent voters incorrectly in the post referenced above. I should have said only Presidential and US Senate elections may very well be determined by Independent voters. Texas is one of the states completely gerrymandered by Republicans, so US Representatives, State Senators, and State Representatives will remain largely Republican.
According to ChatGPT, in Texas, Democrat votes increased from 2016 to 2020, but
fell from 2020 to 2024.
Texas Presidential Vote Share (Democrats)
Election Year Democratic Candidate Democratic Vote % Votes
2016 Hillary Clinton ≈43.2–43.3% ~3.87 million
2020 Joe Biden ≈46.4–46.5% ~5.21 million
2024 Kamala Harris ≈42.4% ~4.81 million
Here’s how the Republican share of the vote in Texas presidential elections compares across 2016, 2020, and 2024. Republican engagement increased each year.
Year Republican Candidate Republican Vote % (Texas) Votes
2016 Donald Trump ≈52.2% ~4.68 million
2020 Donald Trump ≈52.2% ~5.86 million
2024 Donald Trump ≈56.2% ~6.38 million
At a national level, according to ChatGPT, Democrats also voted more in 2020 than 2016, but
voted less in 2024. Had they turned out to vote in the same numbers as 2020, Trump would have lost at least the popular vote.
According to ChatGPT here’s how the Democratic share of the national popular vote compares across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
Year Democratic Candidate Democratic Vote % (U.S.) Votes
2016 Hillary Clinton 48.2% ~65.9 million
2020 Joe Biden 51.3% ~81.3 million
2024 Kamala Harris ≈48.3% ~75.0 million
In contrast to Democrats, Republican engagement increased from 2016 in the 2020 and then again in the 2024 elections.
Here is how the Republican share of the national popular vote compares across the same presidential elections you asked about.
Year Republican Candidate Republican Vote % (U.S.) Votes
2016 Donald Trump ≈46.1% ~63.0 million
2020 Donald Trump ≈46.8% ~74.2 million
2024 Donald Trump ≈49.8% ~77.3 million
According to ChatGPT, the breakdown of voters in Texas by Democrat, Republican, and Unaffiliated is as follows:
As of early 2026, estimates of Texas voters by party affiliation look roughly like this:
Party
Affiliation Voters Percentage
Democratic ~8,133,683 46.5%
Republican ~6,601,189 37.8%
Unaffiliated ~2,750,830 15.7%
Total
registered voter ~17.5 million 100%
As to why fewer Democrats vote than Republicans, ChatGPT list multiple reasons, ranging from Republican voters averaging older while older voters tend to vote more, to political competitiveness, when some voters don't turnout to vote because they feel the outcome is predictable, so their votes won't matter. Gerrymandering certainly supports this idea.
As noted above, the ratio of Republicans to Democrats voting in the 2026 primaries decreased by 40%, which is substantial. This does not mean a guaranteed Democrat win, but does indicate a great deal more engagement by Democrats than in previous years. Recent perception of Republicans making voting more difficult for Democrats after the changes made in March 2026 may increase this engagement in November.
ChatGPT also confirms that multiple Latino-majority counties had more Democrats vote during the recent primary than voted for Harris in 2024, which may to be a good indication that Hispanic sentiment is shifting back to Democrat from the increased Republican leaning from 2020 to 2024.
Independent voters very well may be key in November. According to ChatGPT, there's no data for the average age of unaffiliated voters in Texas, but at the National level, independents skew younger, particularly among Millennials and Gen Z.
Millennials tend to favor Democrats on climate change, healthcare, and social issues, but Republicans get more support on economy, small business, and taxes from some subgroups.
Gen Z is more socially liberal than Millennials on issues like LGBTQ+ rights, racial justice, and climate policy, but economic concerns and a more skeptical attitude toward government sometimes push some Gen Z voters toward Republicans or libertarian-leaning independents.
According to ChatGPT, Independent voters as of early March 2026 generally:
--View the economy as challenging or problematic, especially in terms of inflation and cost of living.
--Rate personal finances more negatively than many Republican voters.
--Are skeptical of claims that the economy is booming, even if some foresee moderate growth ahead.
--Care deeply about economic issues when deciding how to vote, making economic messaging critical for candidates seeking their support.
We will just have to see what happens in November.
