A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data By John P.A. Ioannidis March 17, 2020

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

He did take the correct action. He didn't take your advice, did he?

Yes, he did. You should shut things down when the number of cases is spiking. The restaurants and bars should not have been reopened. Abbott fixed his mistake by putting in the new restrictions on bars and restaurants.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

As usual you show no proof of your "Data".

The data is from post #105. Post #105 was posted by little "e". How many times do you need to see the same calculation?

Death Rate = 120,000/20,000,000

Death Rate = .006

.006 = Number of deaths/(.70 * 329,000,000)

.006 = Number of deaths / 230,300,000

Number of deaths = .006 * 230,300,000

Number of deaths = 1,380,000

Iovannidis calculation is in post #1. His calculation does not synch up with real data.

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

What "law requires them to do so"?

The generally accepted principles involving creating "a law" (which has a constitutional foundation) have not been suspended because of a virus .... and hopefully you agree that they have not been.

Hopefully, you are not getting your "law" from the media.

No law or regulation or executive order or city ordinance requires them to do so, and none of the local businesses require them to do so, so they don't do it. Included among them are the fat, the diabetic, the hypertensive, and the aged. And they all love our President.

Also, sorry, I forgot, there's something in the constitution or the Ten Commandments or somewhere that says something like "Thou shalt not be required to wear a mask unless thou art a chink."

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

The data is from post #105. Post #105 was posted by little "e". How many times do you need to see the same calculation?

Death Rate = 120,000/20,000,000

Death Rate = .006

.006 = Number of deaths/(.70 * 329,000,000)

.006 = Number of deaths / 230,300,000

Number of deaths = .006 * 230,300,000

Number of deaths = 1,380,000

Iovannidis calculation is in post #1. His calculation does not synch up with real data.

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.

your calc is wrong because your number is wrong. if you are using 230 million as your base of 18 and over adults that's wrong. are you trying to exclude about 25 million 18 to 30 adults because their mortality risk factor is already known to be very low?

where did you get 230m? i say it's 331 - 74 = 257 million 18+ plus adults.

so let's use 255 m on your rate of 0.006

that's slightly higher given the large data set. you get 1,530.000 and for this you need at least 75% total expose as a general min level of herd immunity.

i still think this is way too high. my guesstimate of 0.05 now seems off by an order of magnitude and nearly identical to yours. 0.005 vs 0.006.


my number is 1,275,000 at .005 is lower than your original number and now i'm going to cut mine basically in half, twice.

i make the assumption that half at a mid/low point of the deaths had a cofactor of many known kinds and the other half over did not. so i;m going to cut 1.275 in half and call the death toll about 630,000 now i'm factoring put 25% for over reporting and allowing for some under reporting. so now it's about 478,000 total deaths directly linked to this China bat soup virus.


this time next year i predict a real death rate of < 450,000 US total. and that's if this virus does come back knowing what we know now and how to handle it.


now i'm going to cut it in half again. < 250,000 this time next year the real death rate for this so-called pandemic. that factors out or in the numbers and the bullshit
.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

your calc is wrong because your number is wrong. if you are using 230 million as your base of 18 and over adults that's wrong. are you trying to exclude about 25 million 18 to 30 adults because their mortality risk factor is already known to be very low?

where did you get 230m? i say it's 331 - 74 = 257 million 18+ plus adults.

.

Where did I get the 230 million from? Which is total number of people infected. To reach herd immunity in the USA, you need 70% of the population to become infected. The total population in the USA is 329,000,000 people.

Tot Number infected to reach herd immunity is (.70 * 329,000,000)

# infected = 230,300,000. This is the denominator in the death rate equation.

I don't think you can make the manual adjustments that you are making. That is just guessing. I don't have a problem with Iovannidis equation. I have a problem when he uses a death rate of .003 which has been proven to be to low.

You say you estimate 450,000 deaths this year. We already have 125,000 deaths and that is with just 7% of the USA population being infected - about 20,000,000 people.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

A dumbass is a dumbass. Doesn't matter their political or social status.

On second thought you've got a point. You've got 20 and 30 year olds partying like it's 1999, and there's not much you can do about it, other than shutting the bars.

[oeb11]

Does anyone have any good evidence that shutting bars will change anything?
Folks will get together and party/drink regardless.
we should protect the at-risk - and accept the inevitable.

Stop destroying our economy - while Putin and Xi laugh at our follies.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Does anyone have any good evidence that shutting bars will change anything?
Folks will get together and party/drink regardless.
we should protect the at-risk - and accept the inevitable.

Stop destroying our economy - while Putin and Xi laugh at our follies.

See my reply in the Abbott thread. Having grown up in a dry city, where you could only buy liquor from package stores and you had to drive 20 miles to do that, this doesn't seem like an issue to me. If you can make an argument for making marijuana illegal, you should have a much bigger concern about bars, where not only are you dealing with a substance that's arguably more dangerous to health, but also encouraging people to drink and drive. (I don't think bars should be closed permanently btw.)

Any part of Russia and certainly China with an outbreak comparable to what we're seeing in the major Texas cities right now would have closed the bars. I don't know about Putin, but Xi must be laughing at our response to Covid-19, including the socializing in bars in Texas and Florida, and trying to use it to promote Chinese interests at the expense of the USA.

[oeb11]

i agree that Putin and Xi are laughing at the mess our nation is in now - they likely have already met to divvy up america after they take over - likely the Continental Divide - but Xi will likely want it to be the Mississippi river.

However - Xi would inherit kalifornia and Seattle, as well as Texas.

Maybe too much trouble to be worth it.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

we should protect the at-risk - and accept the inevitable.

No president wants 1 million plus dead citizens on their watch. Which is what you will get with this virus by ignoring it. You have 125,000 dead already with just 7% (20 million) of the population being infected. The best way to protect the at-risk is to contain the spread. Abbott did the right thing with the bars and restaurants. Like he said Bars and Restaurants don't mix with a pandemic.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

No president wants 1 million plus dead citizens on their watch. Which is what you will get with this virus by ignoring it. You have 125,000 dead already with just 7% (20 million) of the population being infected. The best way to protect the at-risk is to contain the spread. Abbott did the right thing with the bars and restaurants. Like he said Bars and Restaurants don't mix with a pandemic.

President Trump said his administration has saved at least a million lives, and possibly 2 to 2-1/2 million lives, by closing the country down.

Closing bars and cutting restaurants to 50% of capacity from 75% of capacity aren't exactly radical steps compared to what we had before, or compared to what we may have again if we don't get this under control. The fines on businesses imposed by Texas counties and cities to get people to mask up aren't radical steps either. No, this isn't going to destroy the very fabric of Texas.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

No president wants 1 million plus dead citizens on their watch. Which is what you will get with this virus by ignoring it. You have 125,000 dead already with just 7% (20 million) of the population being infected. The best way to protect the at-risk is to contain the spread. Abbott did the right thing with the bars and restaurants. Like he said Bars and Restaurants don't mix with a pandemic.

LBJ had 1.5 million dead on his watch.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

u are not a physician or epidemiologist.

Neither are you.

[oeb11]

Thank U little 'a' - for your attempt at 'outing'!
U know nothing of me - or the consequences of your socialism .
typical DPST projection of their fantasies and "know-it-allism" .

Since u are so well informed - please produce my educational record - as U claim to do of others.
and prove me incorrect - U are not a physician or epidemiologist.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Since u are so well informed

I do my homework.