IHME COVID-19 Model

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Today is April 4th.

April 5th 20 (deaths per day)
April 6th 22
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[HoeHummer]

Yous keeping score there, big shooter?

LOLLING!

[Tiny]

You might want to keep track of total predicted Texas deaths too, which right now they have at 6392.

I disagree with this,

"Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay."

Their forecast comes up with 93,000 deaths in the USA and assumes this will mostly be gone by the end of May. The models that are destroying trillions are the ones that predict a couple of million deaths if we do nothing. And yes they're probably pessimistic as to the fatality rate so the numbers are too high.

We could have gotten away with much, much less in terms of damage to the economy if we had our act together like South Korea. I'm not trying to piss you off here, because I know you don't like him, but if someone like Bill Gates had been running the pandemic response from the start and Trump had acted as cheerleader and quartermaster and added a few key decisions like shutting off travel from China, we'd be looking a lot better. And Trump would be a shoo in at election time.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Tiny

if someone like Bill Gates had been running the pandemic response from the start and Trump had acted as cheerleader and quartermaster and added a few key decisions like shutting off travel from China, we'd be looking a lot better. And Trump would be a shoo in at election time.

great irony, but spot on. the longer Republicans argue about how well Trump's response has been, while failing to be as serious as Gates, the worse Trump's chances are in November.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

great irony, but spot on. the longer Republicans argue about how well Trump's response has been, while failing to be as serious as Gates, the worse Trump's chances are in November.

You put it better than I did.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

Yous keeping score there, big shooter?

LOLLING!

You know I like to keep score.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

You might want to keep track of total predicted Texas deaths too, which right now they have at 6392.

I disagree with this,

"Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay."

Their forecast comes up with 93,000 deaths in the USA and assumes this will mostly be gone by the end of May. The models that are destroying trillions are the ones that predict a couple of million deaths if we do nothing. And yes they're probably pessimistic as to the fatality rate so the numbers are too high.

We could have gotten away with much, much less in terms of damage to the economy if we had our act together like South Korea. I'm not trying to piss you off here, because I know you don't like him, but if someone like Bill Gates had been running the pandemic response from the start and Trump had acted as cheerleader and quartermaster and added a few key decisions like shutting off travel from China, we'd be looking a lot better. And Trump would be a shoo in at election time.

What I have never understood as well as Gates is how inferior Microsoft software could beat the better product Steve Jobs put out.

I guess distribution trumped quality.

I suppose if it didn't create a civil war, locking down the country and not allowing human contact for 10 weeks could have prevented the disease from killing as many old and sick people as it did.

However, in life we must weigh the inevitable tradeoffs, or the cruel realities of life will do it for us.

I feel like their model is biased toward the NYC numbers and like many at the upper end of academia and government, they don't think too much about flyover country and just don't understand it. Texas is different and I believe our outcome will be less tragic than NY.

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

great irony, but spot on. the longer Republicans argue about how well Trump's response has been, while failing to be as serious as Gates, the worse Trump's chances are in November.

Gates is a fucking moron (and a thief). His suggestions would destroy the country for a generation and cause far greater suffering than covid could ever dream of.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

What I have never understood as well as Gates is how inferior Microsoft software could beat the better product Steve Jobs put out.

I guess distribution trumped quality.

I suppose if it didn't create a civil war, locking down the country and not allowing human contact for 10 weeks could have prevented the disease from killing as many old and sick people as it did.

However, in life we must weigh the inevitable tradeoffs, or the cruel realities of life will do it for us.

I feel like their model is biased toward the NYC numbers and like many at the upper end of academia and government, they don't think too much about flyover country and just don't understand it. Texas is different and I believe our outcome will be less tragic than NY.

Their heaviest weighting is towards Wuhan. Does that make it biased towards New York? Yes, in the sense that NYC is a lot more like Wuhan than Texas in the way people are crowded together. On the other hand the Chinese may have lied and said fewer died than really did. And their police state swung into action to keep people home. So New York may turn out worse than Wuhan. Will Texas? Probably not, for reasons you’ve highlighted. I’ve got no idea whether IHME takes those reasons into account in their model. I suspect they do, because they show Texas and California getting hit a lot less than New York

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Their heaviest weighting is towards Wuhan. Does that make it biased towards New York? Yes, in the sense that NYC is a lot more like Wuhan than Texas in the way people are crowded together. On the other hand the Chinese may have lied and said fewer died than really did. And their police state swung into action to keep people home. So New York may turn out worse than Wuhan. Will Texas? Probably not, for reasons you’ve highlighted. I’ve got no idea whether IHME takes those reasons into account in their model. I suspect they do, because they show Texas and California getting hit a lot less than New York

Yes, they do show Texas getting hit less. They were right on the first day 22 deaths yesterday.

[friendly fred]

They got the first one right.

April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 22
April 6th 22
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[Tiny]

IHME last updated their forecast on April 1st. I've combined their forecast from the 2nd to the 4th with actual Texas deaths from your post in another thread:

April 2nd 13 (actual 12)
April 3rd 15 (actual 20)
April 4th 17 (actual 15)

Originally Posted by friendly fred

They got the first one right.

April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 22
April 6th 22
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

They got the first one right.

April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 22
April 6th 22
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

Am I missing something? Isn't today the 5th and it's not over yet?

[dilbert firestorm]

are they counting the deaths the day before as todays official number?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

are they counting the deaths the day before as todays official number?

We may be off by one day. FF, is 22 the actual deaths on the 4th or the 5th?

Originally Posted by eccielover

Am I missing something? Isn't today the 5th and it's not over yet?

For each day, the first number is the forecast, prepared on April 1, and the second number is actual deaths on that day.