US Navy to blockade the Strait....?

[VitaMan]

This is interesting. Instead of Iran blocking the Strait, Trump is talking about the US Navy
blockading it, preventing any vessel from going in or out.


Wasn't it Trump who was writing profanities a short time ago, demanding the Strait be opened ?
Wasn't opening the Strait a condition for a cease fire ?


If this proceeds, it will be the US preventing oil shipments, causing oil prices to rise even higher than they are. Oil was around $ 69 when Trump launched his attack. Now around $ 96.


Countries around the globe are already suffering. Many only have a 30 to 45 day emergency fuel supply.

[offshoredrilling]

seems ok. Whats left of Iran navy giving US navy hard time about clearing mines. Iran wanted to charge and control who can use. China wants to ship Iran new weapons. Fuck it close it

[Unique_Carpenter]

More like floating anti-missle, anti drone, anti anything and also toll booths. Seriously, some one should pay for the munitions the US uses to maintain a clear route

[pxmcc]

a blockade is dumb af. time to invoke the 25th..

only Trump could come up with something so patently absurd. are none of his yes men going to tell him?

open the damn Strait, Orange Clown..

that's why we spend billions on destroyers and cruisers, so we can tell Iran eff you..

stand down and hand the op to Cent Com, b/c it's obvious you haven't the slightest clue..

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by pxmcc

open the damn Strait, Orange Clown...

that's why we spend billions on destroyers and cruisers, so we can tell Iran eff you..

Isn't that what he is doing - telling Iran to fuck off? A blockade makes sense to me at this point. If we take control of the Strait, it prevents Iran from implementing an alternate route/toll system. It allows us to decide which civilian vessels go in/out. I assume we'll be escorting/protecting them. We can also halt Iranian oil exports without bombing or seizing Kharg Island.

But hey, I'm not a military expert. Tell me where I'm wrong.

[royamcr]

Charge ships 3 million $ to get in. We'll pay the $2 million to get out.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by royamcr

Charge ships 3 million $ to get in. We'll pay the $2 million to get out.

Lol! Good to see you thinking outside the box, royamcr. But I don't think we want to pay the current powers-that-be in Tehran a dime. Maybe we can put it in a lockbox for the next regime.

[Unique_Carpenter]

I think the US Navy should take down the Iranian flag and put up a UAE flag on Abu Musa Island. It has a nicely critical location off the coast of Dubai.

The Island was originally UAE's (Emirate of Sharjah) until Iran occupied it in 1971. In the early 1900's the Sharjah had control and Iranians started being cute in 1904 but the British took care of that. Note that British held a protectorate on behalf of Sharjah back to 1819. Iran's very weak claims are based upon the Parthian and Sasanian Empires 200BC to 600AD. But both of those empires collapsed after war defeats. Amusingly, these folks are still always at war with their neighbors.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

This is interesting. Instead of Iran blocking the Strait, Trump is talking about the US Navy
blockading it, preventing any vessel from going in or out.


Wasn't it Trump who was writing profanities a short time ago, demanding the Strait be opened ?
Wasn't opening the Strait a condition for a cease fire ?


If this proceeds, it will be the US preventing oil shipments, causing oil prices to rise even higher than they are. Oil was around $ 69 when Trump launched his attack. Now around $ 96.


Countries around the globe are already suffering. Many only have a 30 to 45 day emergency fuel supply.

That's flipping the script.
If you can't take complete control of the ground, air, or water while waging war and the other guy is waving his gonads in your face, than claim *you* closed it down.

Childish.

Originally Posted by royamcr

Charge ships 3 million $ to get in. We'll pay the $2 million to get out.

*THIS* makes the most sense if true. I wonder what off shore grift account donny is gonna want those funds sent to?

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

I think the US Navy should take down the Iranian flag and put up a UAE flag on Abu Musa Island. It has a nicely critical location off the coast of Dubai.

The Island was originally UAE's (Emirate of Sharjah) until Iran occupied it in 1971. In the early 1900's the Sharjah had control and Iranians started being cute in 1904 but the British took care of that. Note that British held a protectorate on behalf of Sharjah back to 1819. Iran's very weak claims are based upon the Parthian and Sasanian Empires 200BC to 600AD. But both of those empires collapsed after war defeats. Amusingly, these folks are still always at war with their neighbors.

That'll be for the Central Treaty Organization to work out.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by lustylad

...Maybe we can put it in a lockbox for the next regime.

... Al Gore to keep a watchful eye on it.

Seriously though, I've always appreciated our Texas road crews for closing the bridge while they work to fix it. Same at play here, close it until they can remove the dangers.

But I hope we can reopen it in time for the fireworks show that is about to happen in a little over a week. Maybe charge a small admission fee to sail by it.

Regardless, Trump's plan seems targeted to let nothing in or out of Iran, by all routes - IMMHO.

[pxmcc]

blockading is the wrong way to go. it's cutting off your nose just to spite your face.

a blockade means no ships in or out. ships trying to leave will be seized by the U.S. Navy.

problem is we have 3 ships a day leaving the Strait. how is Asia supposed to get their oil? they can't. more constricted supply, prices go up. simple economics.

here is what should happen. tell Iran eff you. finish removing the mines. start destroyer escorts across the Strait, backed up by 3 carrier strike groups and 2 amphibious ready groups-the Tripoli and the Boxer-A-10s, and whatever else. that's the only way oil supplies will start normalizing. a blockade will make the supply problem worse, not better.

may have to offer the tankers' owners U.S. government insurance. we're banking on our Navy, the best in the world by far.

if destroyers/cruisers can protect a carrier from hostile fire, they can protect a tanker too. carriers are offensive weapons; their defense is crappy af. basically some deck guns.

the cease fire is the perfect time to push the envelope. if Iran shoots first, all bets are off and Trump can go commit some war crimes to bring Iran to heel. he started this shit; let him finish it as he sees fit.

but a blockade makes absolutely zero sense.

Originally Posted by lustylad

Isn't that what he is doing - telling Iran to fuck off? A blockade makes sense to me at this point. If we take control of the Strait, it prevents Iran from implementing an alternate route/toll system. It allows us to decide which civilian vessels go in/out. I assume we'll be escorting/protecting them. We can also halt Iranian oil exports without bombing or seizing Kharg Island.

But hey, I'm not a military expert. Tell me where I'm wrong.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by pxmcc

blockading is the wrong way to go. it's cutting off your nose just to spite your face.

a blockade means no ships in or out. ships trying to leave will be seized by the U.S. Navy.

problem is we have 3 ships a day leaving the Strait. how is Asia supposed to get their oil? they can't. more constricted supply, prices go up. simple economics.

here is what should happen. tell Iran eff you. finish removing the mines. start destroyer escorts across the Strait, backed up by 3 carrier strike groups and 2 amphibious ready groups-the Tripoli and the Boxer-A-10s, and whatever else. that's the only way oil supplies will start normalizing. a blockade will make the supply problem worse, not better.

may have to offer the tankers' owners U.S. government insurance. we're banking on our Navy, the best in the world by far.

if destroyers/cruisers can protect a carrier from hostile fire, they can protect a tanker too. carriers are offensive weapons; their defense is crappy af. basically some deck guns.

the cease fire is the perfect time to push the envelope. if Iran shoots first, all bets are off and Trump can go commit some war crimes to bring Iran to heel. he started this shit; let him finish it as he sees fit.

but a blockade makes absolutely zero sense.

Good post.

I think calling it a "blockade" forces every ship to seek permission from us (not from Iran) to transit the Strait. In practice, it won't be a blockade in the traditional sense if we allow generous exemptions, which we will since our end-goal is to normalize traffic, not suppress it.

Here's an article about how Iran can still harass Persian Gulf shipping using small fast-attack speedboats, now that its traditional Navy is destroyed.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-eas...ormuz-98ea16ff

[pxmcc]

your model is more like seizing control of the Strait from Iran. that's harder to do than a simple blockade. i agree with you that that would be a desirable goal if it could be achieved. it's certainly plausible, but not super practical in the short term. i would put a full seizure of the Strait on the order of some weeks at least, not days. maybe some military experts can weigh in. (like you, i don't pretend to be a military expert.)

but we don't need to capture the entire Strait to begin escorting tankers through. we just need a corridor that is well defended and enough destroyers and cruisers to make a dent in the huge backlog of tankers and cargo ships on both sides of the Strait.

guaranteed, gas prices will go up again if Trump follows through on his "blockade" threat. (i'm assuming he knows what a blockade is.)

the 2 destroyer transit was a huge statement and momentum builder. we need to expand on that approach and start getting traffic moving through the Strait sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by lustylad

Good post.

I think calling it a "blockade" forces every ship to seek permission from us (not from Iran) to transit the Strait. In practice, it won't be a blockade in the traditional sense if we allow generous exemptions, which we will since our end-goal is to normalize traffic, not suppress it.

Here's an article about how Iran can still harass Persian Gulf shipping using small fast-attack speedboats, now that its traditional Navy is destroyed.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-eas...ormuz-98ea16ff

[Yssup Rider]

I don’t know what’s more absurd, that Trump is threatening to do this or that yall are discussing it like it’s legit.

[VitaMan]

I don't know, Trump said a short time ago US activities there would be finished in 2 to 3 weeks. And now ?

Oil prices started to skyrocket first week of March. Now no end in sight.