How we got here and what comes next?

[ICU 812]

There is a history that goes back to WW-II and earlier with Iran and the major powers including Britain, the USA and even Russia. Let's not stir up that septic tank of recrimination. Lets n ot even go back as far s last year.

What I am looking at is the credibly high probability that Iran had or has the ability to enrich enough Uranium (U-235) to create as many as 10 or 12 atomic bombs. There is discussion about just how quickly that could have b been done before, or how quickly it can be done now. No one really disputes that Iran had that capability. No one disputes that Iran intended to do it. No one disputes that Iran actually would us a nuclear weapon as soon as one was available.

So then, given that, what would have been the appropriate action on the part of any nation or leader? I don't know ow. Having worked with radioactive materials in a commercial setting and later on in a medical setting, I have had training in radiation safety and the health effects of ionizing radiation. We really do want to keep that Genie in the bottle.

Again, I ask myself what should or could have been done to foerstall and prevent Iran from blowing us all to kingdom come . . . . . .and I just don't know.

[trey32]

Iran could have purchased, or borrowed a few nukes from North Korea.

[Brot]

Sounds like after the fact justification for an ill planned invasion.


We have a highly competent and motivated ally and proxy in Israel. It is not too hard to imagine their handling the matter in a more strategic manner if our support was mapped to that end.

[sand247]

Originally Posted by trey32

Iran could have purchased, or borrowed a few nukes from North Korea.

I've seen that, and other suggestions like it. But I don't think they could have. Norht Korea threatens and postures, and has nukes for retaliation, not first strike. Same with Russia and a dozen other countries that hate us. Iranians are fanatics that would use a nuke as a first strike. And when we found out where it came from, that country would have also been turned to glowing slag along with Iran.

They can't get a nuke from an ally, because the world knows they'll use it as soon as they get it.

Meaning, they're too fucking nuts for ANYBODY to give them a nuke, they had to make one in house.

That being said, i got no clue if they could or couldn't, depends on whos propaganda you read. I don't agree with this war/offensive, orange man has my support on a lot of things, not this. Getting us into another god damned war was not on the menu.

[pxmcc]

they already got a nuke. it's called the Strait of Hormuz..

[rooster]

What I laugh at is all of the people concerned with the missile programs of both Iran and North Korea.

You don't need a capable, long-range missile to deliver a nuke, and you don't need a small warhead that will fit on top of it.

DHL will deliver a big, heavy, crude one anywhere in the world for a very reasonable price!

It just has to fit in a shipping container and make it through whatever shitty inspection program is in place at the destination. It needs good radiation shielding, of course, to evade detection equipment. But figuring that out is much easier than going the missile route.

.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by ICU 812

There is a history that goes back to WW-II and earlier with r.

What I am looking at is the credibly high probability that Iran had or has the ability to enrich enough Uranium (U-235) to create as many as 10 or 12 atomic bombs.

Again, I ask myself what should or could have been done to foerstall and prevent Iran from blowing us all to kingdom come . . . . . .and I just don't know.

The enriched Uranium(U-235) that Iran still has is enriched to 60%. You need 90% to get an Atomic Bomb explosion like with the "Fat Man" bombs used in WWII on Japan.


The nuke plants at Natanaz and Fedow were destroyed in the 2025 bombings. The third nuke plant that was severely damaged but not destroyed has the enriched 60% Uranium that Iran hid. It's save to say Iran does not have 20,000 high speed centrifuges spinning Uranium to enrich further the 60% that they still have. It will be several years before Iran can get a Nuclear bomb.


To answer your second question, Trump should not have taken the USA out of the JPCOA agreement signed by Obama. In that agreement Iran could not enrich Uranium past 3.67%. Trump was foolish to take the USA out of that deal. There was an abundance of technology that was installed to detect cheating plus 150 inspectors conducting inspections. Once this last conflict is over the USA needs to get Iran to give up most of the 60% enriched uranium that they still have. It will take Iran years to rebuild the Natanez and Ferdow nuke plants.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by ICU 812

Again, I ask myself what should or could have been done to foerstall and prevent Iran from blowing us all to kingdom come . . . . . .and I just don't know.

What stops anyone from using a nuclear weapon? The very real danger of nuclear retaliation. The question to ask is will the aftermath of the current hostilities make a nuclear first strike more or less likely in the future?

[ICU 812]

So here we are. The current situation: Two week cease fire with a shitstorm pending.

[Unique_Carpenter]

OMG, I'm gonna agree with Rooster. (without sarcastic font markers)

Yes a shipping container, which is why NYC has radiation detectors at the Verrazano bridge.
Or, just load a nuke onto a small boat and float it over to UAE.

And, of course Iran continues to play in their labs.
Regardless of any "agreements" or the prior bombings of Natanz and Fordow.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

...And, of course Iran continues to play in their labs...

Apparently, not so much so now. Word on the street is Muh Russia, Russia, Russia just ferried out around 175 Nuclear Scientists from Iran - to Russia.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by ICU 812

So here we are. The current situation: Two week cease fire with a shitstorm pending.

Wayne Allyn Root came up with a brilliant two-step plan if Iran reneges on a "temporary" cease fire.

Day 1: Pick 1 small city. Bomb out their infrastructure and wait for the surrender call.

Day 2: Pick 1 small city. Bomb out their infrastructure and wait for the surrender call.

Day 3: Pick 1 medium sized city. Bomb out their infrastructure and wait for the surrender call.

Day 4: Pick 1 medium sized . Bomb out their infrastructure and wait for the surrender call.

Day 5: Pick 1 large city. Bomb out their infrastructure and wait for the surrender call.

Rinse and repeat.

I'll call it: The One-a-Day Solution.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Apparently, not so much so now. Word on the street is Muh Russia, Russia, Russia just ferried out around 175 Nuclear Scientists from Iran - to Russia.

Thought some of ya'll would have found the Easter Egg in the above by now.
To be fair; it likely was not on CNN-LoL, NYT, NPR or even WSJ.

The Conversation (loosely translated):

Putin: Could you pause bombing, so I can safely ferry the scientists, from RoseAtom, through Armenia?

Trump: You got it Vlad. Lemme know when you're done.

Putin: Thx