Tariff Man and his tariff plan cause market plunges

[Green_Mountain]

Can anybody remind me when that big scary inflation spike from tariffs is coming?

Core CPI in May came in lower than all 73 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted.

CPI MoM: 0.1% vs 0.2% exp.
CPI Core MoM: 0.1% vs 0.3% exp.

CPI YoY: 2.4% vs 2.4% exp.
CPI Core YoY: 2.8% vs 2.9% exp.

[tommy156]

When TACO don stops chickening out and actually applies the tariffs. He hasn't done that yet. Because even he knows he can't win a trade war vs. the rest of the world.

[HDGristle]

You mean the mostly paused tariffs?

The ones that already have made a lot of toys more expensive if you're buying anywhere other than big box?

The ones that are crushing some small businesses as they hold and hope and wait for these "deals" to emerge?

They're feeling it even if the drop in gas prices helped hide some of the impact

[Green_Mountain]

Originally Posted by tommy156

When TACO don stops chickening out and actually applies the tariffs. He hasn't done that yet. Because even he knows he can't win a trade war vs. the rest of the world.

Is that right?

2025 YTD tariff revenue as of May 28: $68.23 billion, a 78% increase over the same period in 2024. This surge is attributed to new tariffs implemented in 2025, including a 10% blanket tariff on all imports starting April 2, 2025, and higher tariffs on specific countries like China

[HDGristle]

And most of the higher tariffs were paused. Many deliveries have been delayed.

You did hear about how little was coming into the ports, as imports dropped. From China AND elsewhere.

Overall U.S. imports dropped 16.3% in April. Imports from China dropped 28.5% as the 145% kicked in. Overall U.S. seaborne imports dropped 7.2% YoY in May. New car imports dropped 70% in May.

The port of Long Beach saw a 31.6% drop in Chinese container deliveries. That also means trucks weren't out moving product and supply chains slowed, some grinding to a temporary halt.

Boats were stopped, some on the water, to try to time delivery and avoid the 145%

You'll want to keep watching rather than looking for immediate impact.

[Green_Mountain]

Sorry not exactly. Tariff revenue is accelerating and it didn’t make its way to impact the May CPI reading. I know it’s not the narrative many of you want but it is what it is so far.

January 2025: ~$8.95 billion (estimated, based on year-to-date totals and assuming lower pre-tariff rates before major policy changes in February/March). No specific monthly breakdown is available, but this is inferred from the $68.23 billion YTD total through May 30, 2025, minus reported figures for later months.

February 2025: ~$8.95 billion (estimated, based on a reported $23 billion surge from February to May, suggesting lower collections before the April tariff hikes).

March 2025: $8.8 billion (reported as a baseline before the significant April increase).

April 2025: $16.3 billion (a record, up 86% from March 2025 and 135% from April 2024, driven by the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs, including a 10% universal tariff and higher rates on specific countries).

May 2025: $22.3 billion (a new record, up 168% from February 2025, reflecting the full impact of new tariffs, though some were reduced or paused by late May due to a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling).

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Green_Mountain

Sorry not exactly. Tariff revenue is accelerating and it didn’t make its way to impact the May CPI reading. I know it’s not the narrative many of you want but it is what it is so far.

January 2025: ~$8.95 billion (estimated, based on year-to-date totals and assuming lower pre-tariff rates before major policy changes in February/March). No specific monthly breakdown is available, but this is inferred from the $68.23 billion YTD total through May 30, 2025, minus reported figures for later months.

February 2025: ~$8.95 billion (estimated, based on a reported $23 billion surge from February to May, suggesting lower collections before the April tariff hikes).

March 2025: $8.8 billion (reported as a baseline before the significant April increase).

April 2025: $16.3 billion (a record, up 86% from March 2025 and 135% from April 2024, driven by the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs, including a 10% universal tariff and higher rates on specific countries).

May 2025: $22.3 billion (a new record, up 168% from February 2025, reflecting the full impact of new tariffs, though some were reduced or paused by late May due to a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling).

Tarrifs will continue to break records going forward.

[HDGristle]

I'm aware that tariff revenue is accelerating. That's not the only metric to follow, though. Especially not when you're asking about inflation and especially timing. And with so much attention on the "trade deficit" But, ok. Ignore as you wish

[HDGristle]

Another one of those "deals" where the administration is going to try to take credit for a deal that's still being worked on and hasn't been finalized.

At least there's progress and a framework. Hopefully Xi agrees. And hopefully Trump doesn't violate his "dealgreement in principle"

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/0...-hold-00400288

[bambino]

BREAKING: President Trump announces that a federal appeals court has just ruled the U.S. has the authority to impose tariffs on foreign nations.

@GeneralMCNews

[HDGristle]

The court didn’t rule they were legal and the appeal is still in process. They extended an existing pause on the injunction from a lower court.

That's not the same thing

[bambino]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...64632971715644

BOOM

[bambino]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...64867178522750

Double BOOM

[bambino]

Automaker GM now plans to invest $4 BILLION in the United States to move additional production out of Mexico.

This will result in the reopening of an assembly plant in DETROIT, MICHIGAN.

[HDGristle]

That $4 billion covers 3 plants over 2 years and includes EV's, including shifting a lot of EV production from Orion to Factory Zero.

Won't see most of the gas powered SUV's out of Orion until 2027