Place your bets here - Electoral College and Senate

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

I knew it could be possible but I didn't know there are 64 possible combinations according to this.
The newly-elected U.S House of Representatives would choose the president from among the top three electoral vote-getters. If Biden and Trump were the only two to receive votes, the choice would be between just those two candidates. In the 1824 election, the last time the House voted for president, the House chose among Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, and William Crawford (the sitting treasury secretary). Presidential candidate Henry Clay, the speaker of the House, finished fourth and thus didn’t make the top-three cut. He helped Adams win the House vote, and Adams made Clay secretary of state. The resentment over what Jackson and his supporters called a “corrupt bargain” fueled Jackson’s victory over Adams in 1828.

At first blush, a House tiebreaker would seem to favor Biden and the Democrats, who currently hold a House majority and are likely to keep it even in the event of a presidential vote close enough to produce this hypothetical tied scenario. However, even if they are still in the House minority, Republicans likely would be able to win the tiebreaker vote. That’s because each state House delegation gets a single vote, with majority support — 26 out of 50 — required for the House to elect a president. The Senate elects the vice president, with each member getting a single vote. (The District of Columbia has three electoral votes but no voting representation in the House and the Senate, so it has no vote in this process.)

Presumably, whichever party holds a majority in a state U.S. House delegation would determine how to cast that state’s vote. In some states with single members, such as Vermont and Wyoming, it would be up to that single member which way to vote. Some states might split — for instance, swing state Pennsylvania currently has nine Democratic U.S. House representatives and nine Republicans. It is possible that a tied state would deadlock and not cast a vote.

Still, Republicans currently hold a bare majority of U.S. House delegations, and we continue to favor them to keep that edge.

In other words, if the election is close enough to produce a 269-269 Electoral College tie, Republicans likely will retain their advantage in the tiebreaker vote.

So there is good news after all.

[/LEFT]

64 combinations! More than you'd think. Thanks for posting the explanation of what happens if neither candidate can come up with an electoral majority. I knew Republicans would be likely to win this year if that happens, but didn't know how it works.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Swap Michigan, Wisconsin and Virgina.

Biden 275

Dump 246

I was kind of expecting you to come up with 336 for Biden, one more than SpeedRacer and me, but that's probably a good guess too. If it's a squeaker you'll probably win.

Will add your vote along with Jacuzzme's and WTF's change later today or tomorrow.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I was kind of expecting you to come up with 336 for Biden, one more than SpeedRacer and me, but that's probably a good guess too. If it's a squeaker you'll probably win.

Will add your vote along with Jacuzzme's and WTF's change later today or tomorrow.

[eccieuser9500]

Here we go!

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

The Republicans will hold the Senate, possibly pick up a seat.
President Trump will probably loose.

The biggest looser in this fiasco will be Special Prosecutor Durham. 10 minutes after Biden is Sworn in, He will fire Durham.

Biden will turn him loose on Trump!

[WTF]

Originally Posted by lustylad

From what I've read, HF has methodically eviscerated your arguments on more than one occasion. But that's no biggie. You're hardly a challenge in any debate. The best I can say is you rank slightly higher than tsmokies, matchingmole and assup rider, and that's because they are 100% trolls incapable of any serious forensic engagement.

Instead of badmouthing HF, why don't you consider the possibility that in blowing apart your arguments he is doing you a big favor if it forces you to figure out how to defend yourself with more persuasive counter-points instead of whining helplessly whenever your lame DNC talking points are demolished.

Have you and bambino weighed in on this prediction?

[WTF]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

I'm sure none of you recall...well of course I do, but as they say, "back in the day"

I was trumpeting the thought that trump would win in 2016
my posts were mostly ignored ...a few times laughed at

but no matter....

in the face of the polls, and the punditry, I intuitively "knew" he would win

when there was a two hour wait to vote in a small town like floresville

when obama had thoroughly pushed racism and divided the nation

because the economy was lethargic and obama and the dimocrats were pusihing the idea that the american dream was over

obama's vision was that all that was left was to manage the decline,

the fact was, his actual goal was to diminish American wealth and power because we just had too much you know, just another globalist and leftist idea

Obama called trump crazy and said about bringing back jobs, “Well, how exactly are you going to do that? What exactly are you going to do? There’s no answer to it," Obama said."He just says, 'Well, I’m going to negotiate a better deal.' Well, what, how exactly are you going to negotiate that? What magic wand do you have? And usually the answer is, he doesn’t have an answer.”

the wealth of the nation was flowing steadily to silcon valley from other states, either there or to the several counties around washington d c

and hellary and obama's prescription for miners and the oil patch and guys working in manufacturing and the rest of america was "learn to code"

obama's aca had priced small businesses and proprietors out of health insurance where once individual policies designed for catastrophic coverage could be had without tax penalties, the only good thing about the aca was pre existing condition coverage

and then of course there was all of hellary's lies and corruption

yeah trump was going to win

the only surprising thing to me was how close it was and the popular vote outcome

which leads me to the feeling that america isn't the america it was once by an even greater scale than in 2016

its certainly not the America that gave Reagan his landslide against a "liberal"

in 2016 trump won narrowly in key states, and that was even with all the baggage of hellary and the dims

social media is an even bigger destructive force, socialism is a siren's song, alluring the naïve and fools

and thus my feeling is that trump will lose as the America we once learned about and loved is in its death throes

I hope I'm wrong

it may be i'll be surprised and Hispanics will be America's salvation along with an increased number of blacks but I fear not

That sure was a whole lot of horse shit to finally say Trump will be dumped.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by WTF

That sure was a whole lot of horse shit to finally say Trump will be dumped.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Indeed. For example, while you were gone I posted a link to a piece in VICE on donkey sex in a coastal part of Colombia. It was done from a cultural or anthropological point of view, and I didn't post anything like Encounter Reviews of burros. But still several posters kindly advised I needed to be careful because it could run astray of forum rules and get me points.

In any event, this is what separates a 3/4 Libertarian like you from an 85% Libertarian like me. I believe it's the God given right for man and burro to get it on, as long as both parties are of legal age, they both consent, and they both enjoy it. The idea actually makes me want to throw up, but as an 85% Libertarian I must accept it.

Welcome back!

Lol....and I believe you too are a 75% as you want to restrict my ability to hire that act and bring it over to the States with your anti libertarian immigration stance.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Welcome back WTF. You had a long vacation. Trump talked about 4,5 or even 6% GDP growth after cutting corporate taxes. But the best Trump could do was sniff 3.0%

With Trump hitting 3.0% is setting a record, with Obama hitting 3.1% it's considered under performing.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

They gave me a vacation for talking about some posters mom when I actually believed the SOB had two gay Dads. So I took a little extra time off after it expired.

Did Wacko and bambino get banned too?

Where are all the Trump bootlickers?

I only came back to run their nose in the 2020 election!

They seem to have headed to Argentina like their ancestors right before the end of WWII��

[Texas Contrarian]

.


Earlier this weekend, I saw an Electoral College forecast map that broke out states' results just about the way I'd expect. (I don't remember where I saw it, so can't post it.) Florida was blue, which is not the way I would have guessed it would go until recently. I thought the state might lean (slightly) toward Trump. But last week, one of the fairly well respected econ bloggers put out a note saying that Donald was rapidly losing elderly support because of covid-19. If true, that would surprise no one.



The map indicated:


D-319
R-219


My estimate for the Senate in 2021:


D-51
R-49
.

[DesWad]

Originally Posted by Tiny

OK, there will be no actual money on the line. But here's your chance to prove you're the best prognosticator in the eccie political forum.

Question 1: After the elections this year have all been decided, how many Senators will be Democrats and how many will be Republicans?

Question 2: How many electoral votes will Trump win? And how many will Biden win?

Rules: Only entries submitted before midnight, Sunday, October 11 will be accepted. You may not change your estimate after submission. Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two independent Senators who caucus with Democrats, will be counted as Democrats. There will be one winner for the Senate question and one winner for the Electoral College question. Your predictions for Democratic and Republican Senators should total 100. And your prediction for number of electoral votes received by Trump plus electoral votes received by Biden should total 538. In the event of a tie, the winners will share the glory.

My entry -

Question 1: 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats

Question 2: 203 electoral votes for Trump and 335 electoral votes for Biden.

Question1: 48 Dems 52 GOP

Question2: 278 Trump 260 Biden

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

.


Earlier this weekend, I saw an Electoral College forecast map that broke out states' results just about the way I'd expect. (I don't remember where I saw it, so can't post it.) Florida was blue, which is not the way I would have guessed it would go until recently. I thought the state might lean (slightly) toward Trump. But last week, one of the fairly well respected econ bloggers put out a note saying that Donald was rapidly losing elderly support because of covid-19. If true, that would surprise no one.



The map indicated:


D-319
R-219


My estimate for the Senate in 2021:


D-51
R-49
.

Since Captain Midnight, one of the two shining lights of economic theory on this board, is participating, I'll calculate averages when we're done with this. We can test the "Wisdom of the Crowd" hypothesis. Supposedly when a group of people forecast an outcome, often the average guess is as good or better a prediction than any of the individual guesses.

[eccieuser9500]

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by WTF

Lol....and I believe you too are a 75% as you want to restrict my ability to hire that act and bring it over to the States with your anti libertarian immigration stance.

I've consistently advocated no immigration restrictions on good looking Latinas. We need all the Cuban, Colombian and Venezuelan strippers we can get. But that's correct, because I don't think Colombian donkeys are attractive, I wouldn't allow you to bring one in just for the hell of it. However you could probably hire her and bring her over with my very liberal H-1B visa policy. You'd just need to show there's a shortage of American donkeys, or she's more skilled in whatever it is that she does than your average American donkey.