Place your bets here - Electoral College and Senate

[dilbert firestorm]

just for kicks. will someone post an entry with 269 electoral votes. lol.

[Jacuzzme]

President Trump will receive 330 electoral votes.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Q) What is Joe-mentia's "official" party stance on the Electoral college?

A) Ask me after I get elected.

[WTF]

I've changed mine if allowed....I think Biden will win Florida. So let's go with Biden and 320.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

does the pro camp look right?

ok guys, you need to fix your senate results.

2 independents are not running this year, they will in 2024. so the total is 98 senate seats instead of 100. btw, 2 of the independents caucus with the democrats.

The pro camp does not look right. I am anti-Biden. And anti-Trump. And I probably want the Republicans to win the Senate more than you day. And have probably contributed more to Republican senatorial campaigns.

Please note from contest rules, below, that the two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, are counted as Democrats since they do indeed caucus with Democrats. So no changes are needed.

About your other post, I wonder if there's a combination of states that would make it possible to end up with a 269/269 tie. I suspect there is, but probably pretty unlikely that will happen this year.

Originally Posted by Tiny

Rules: Only entries submitted before midnight, Sunday, October 11 will be accepted. You may not change your estimate after submission. Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two independent Senators who caucus with Democrats, will be counted as Democrats. There will be one winner for the Senate question and one winner for the Electoral College question. Your predictions for Democratic and Republican Senators should total 100. And your prediction for number of electoral votes received by Trump plus electoral votes received by Biden should total 538. In the event of a tie, the winners will share the glory.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by WTF

I've changed mine if allowed....I think Biden will win Florida. So let's go with Biden and 320.

I'll change it if you want, but please note you're going to be boxed in between Munchmasterman at 318 and Chung Tran at 322.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Tiny

About your other post, I wonder if there's a combination of states that would make it possible to end up with a 269/269 tie. I suspect there is, but probably pretty unlikely that will happen this year.

I knew it could be possible but I didn't know there are 64 possible combinations according to this.


But in the real world, I doubt that there are more than a couple of "likely" possibilities since we know for sure about some states.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/how...nd-269-269-tie


I thought this was an interesting analysis.


https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...rio-an-update/

As part of last week’s Crystal Ball Electoral College update, we changed the rating of the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. This pushed the number of electoral votes we rate as at least leaning to Joe Biden to 269 — one shy of the 270 electoral votes required for an Electoral College majority. Hypothetically, Donald Trump could sweep the Toss-ups and force a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.

This raises one of the favorite parlor game questions of our quadrennial presidential proceedings: What happens in the event of an Electoral College tie?

The newly-elected U.S House of Representatives would choose the president from among the top three electoral vote-getters. If Biden and Trump were the only two to receive votes, the choice would be between just those two candidates. In the 1824 election, the last time the House voted for president, the House chose among Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, and William Crawford (the sitting treasury secretary). Presidential candidate Henry Clay, the speaker of the House, finished fourth and thus didn’t make the top-three cut. He helped Adams win the House vote, and Adams made Clay secretary of state. The resentment over what Jackson and his supporters called a “corrupt bargain” fueled Jackson’s victory over Adams in 1828.

At first blush, a House tiebreaker would seem to favor Biden and the Democrats, who currently hold a House majority and are likely to keep it even in the event of a presidential vote close enough to produce this hypothetical tied scenario. However, even if they are still in the House minority, Republicans likely would be able to win the tiebreaker vote. That’s because each state House delegation gets a single vote, with majority support — 26 out of 50 — required for the House to elect a president. The Senate elects the vice president, with each member getting a single vote. (The District of Columbia has three electoral votes but no voting representation in the House and the Senate, so it has no vote in this process.)

Presumably, whichever party holds a majority in a state U.S. House delegation would determine how to cast that state’s vote. In some states with single members, such as Vermont and Wyoming, it would be up to that single member which way to vote. Some states might split — for instance, swing state Pennsylvania currently has nine Democratic U.S. House representatives and nine Republicans. It is possible that a tied state would deadlock and not cast a vote.

Still, Republicans currently hold a bare majority of U.S. House delegations, and we continue to favor them to keep that edge.

In other words, if the election is close enough to produce a 269-269 Electoral College tie, Republicans likely will retain their advantage in the tiebreaker vote.

So there is good news after all.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'll change it if you want, but please note you're going to be boxed in between Munchmasterman at 318 and Chung Tran at 322.

I'm good with that.

Biden keeps Clinton states won and wins back the blue wall , Florida and a vote in Nebraska and Maine.

[eccieuser9500]

Swap Michigan, Wisconsin and Virgina.

Biden 275

Dump 246


Why It’s Harder Than it Looks for Democrats to Win the Senate


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...he-senate.html

Given partisan polarization and the growing prevalence of straight-ticket voting, you cannot really separate Senate trends from presidential trends. So before looking at the Senate races in detail, it’s important to note that Biden’s lead over Trump has grown in the past turbulent week: It’s at 9.7 percent in the polling averages at RealClearPolitics, the biggest lead since June 24, and 10.2 percent at FiveThirtyEight, the biggest lead of the year.

Senate:

Two independents for Democrats.

Fifty declared Democrats.

Forty-eight Republicans.

Independents could and should help in the healing process after a bloody gutting four years.







Lock it in Chiquito.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'll change it if you want, but please note you're going to be boxed in between Munchmasterman at 318 and Chung Tran at 322.

boxing in? does it really matter? lol

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Swap Michigan, Wisconsin and Virgina.

Biden 275

Dump 246


Why It’s Harder Than it Looks for Democrats to Win the Senate

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...he-senate.html

Senate:

Two independents for Democrats.

Fifty declared Democrats.

Forty-eight Republicans.

Independents could and should help in the healing process after a bloody gutting four years.

except that those 2 independents are caucusing with the democrats. one of whom is a very well known socialist, Bernie Sanders.

the healing process will not help at all. the gutting was by the democrats 4 for years over their 2016 election meltdown.

it sure hell wasn't tamped down during the obama administration.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

just for kicks. will someone post an entry with 269 electoral votes. lol.

I worked out a scenario where I added up to 271 in one case. I was going to post it, but just couldn't. I wanted to take this a little more serious. I couldn't see it that close.

It might happen though.


Can the Members of the Electoral College Choose Who They Vote For?


https://www.brennancenter.org/our-wo...-who-they-vote

Most of the Democratic presidential candidates want to abolish the Electoral College to ensure the person with the most votes always wins. Changing to direct election of the president could be accomplished through a constitutional amendment or, less permanently, a method such as the National Popular Vote Compact, an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. Before his election, Trump called the current system a “disaster,” but afterwards, he said that “the Electoral College is far better for the U.S.A.”

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Another great thread. I'll do more research.

Preliminary guess: Senate goes Democratic 52 and Republican 48.

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

except that those 2 independents are caucusing with the democrats. one of whom is a very well known socialist, Bernie Sanders.

I know. I'm sticking with my gut instinct.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

just for kicks. will someone post an entry with 269 electoral votes. lol.

start at no toss up state and work from there. I got that on first try. the result surprised me.

this model presumes winner take all vote.

I should note there is a fly in this.

there are a number of states that allow for proportional electoral votes as a result of the states popular vote. there can be split votes in some states besides Nebraska and Maine which are decided by district votes. don't know which ones are those.

the map calculator doesn't address this. none of them do that I'm aware of.

[eccieuser9500]

I downloaded an app and worked out several scenarios. I settled with the closest and most "reasonable" result. That was my strategy.