A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data By John P.A. Ioannidis March 17, 2020

[R.M.]

I just hope everyone remembers this shit storm when it’s time to vote. This is a man made virus. Crashing the economy yeah good job you demotards.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by R.M.

This is a man made virus.

A theory that has not been proven.

[Jacuzzme]

he makes an estimate for number of deaths due to SARs assuming 1% of the USA population got infected

It’s way higher than that, could easily be 20%.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

+1

Exactly. Let's do nothing and let the virus infect 200 million of our citizens. With a death rate of 3% only 6 million people will die, but the DJIA will still be above 25,000. Typical reputard retard logic.

after all this time you think the death rate is 3 percent? more like 0.03 percent. by now if you were even close to being right there would be several million dead at least. there isn't.

the lock down was a complete overreaction. a more sensible thing like Sweden would be isolate the elderly who are vulnerable and let everyone else go about their day and wear masks.


and since the leftists want to investigate Trump for this scamdemic when are the NY hearings on the bright fucking idea that Andy Cuomo allowed to bring suspected infected into nursing homes? and of new cases in NYC over 60% are from people who were sheltering at home. go figure.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

after all this time you think the death rate is 3 percent? more like 0.03 percent. by now if you were even close to being right there would be several million dead at least. there isn't.

I think the death rate for CV19 is around 2%. In the USA there are only 1.3 million cases and 80,000 deaths. How could there be several million dead with only 1.3 million cases?

Until you count the number of people who are asymptomatic the death rate for CV19 can't be determined with accuracy.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

I think the death rate for CV19 is around 2%. In the USA there are only 1.3 million cases and 80,000 deaths. How could there be several million dead with only 1.3 million cases?

Until you count the number of people who are asymptomatic the death rate for CV19 can't be determined with accuracy.

So you "think" the rate is x, but immediately post that we cannot determine the rate with accuracy at this point.

You apparently lost it at "think".

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

I think the death rate for CV19 is around 2%. In the USA there are only 1.3 million cases and 80,000 deaths. How could there be several million dead with only 1.3 million cases?

Until you count the number of people who are asymptomatic the death rate for CV19 can't be determined with accuracy.

A notion you should have stared with and ended with offering no opinion as to a number but you couldn't follow your own reasoning.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by eccielover

So you "think" the rate is x, but immediately post that we cannot determine the rate with accuracy at this point.

You apparently lost it

Numbnuts, have you ever heard of word estimate?

What do you think author of the link in post #1 is doing? It's full of estimates because of lack of data.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

A notion you should have stared with and ended with offering no opinion as to a number but you couldn't follow your own reasoning.

You could say the same thing about Ioannidis. He gave an estimate. He has not counted the asymptomatics.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

You could say the same thing about Ioannidis. He gave an estimate. He has not counted the asymptomatics.

He did in the Santa Clara study with antibodies.

Sampling the population gives you the percentage of the population that had COVID-19 - including those who were asymptomatic.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

He did in the Santa Clara study with antibodies.

Sampling the population gives you the percentage of the population that had COVID-19 - including those who were asymptomatic.

When he estimated the number of deaths caused by SARS below, he did not count the asymptomatics. You are mixing apples and oranges.

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.

[oeb11]

a is on the correct path - referring to Dr.Iioaniddis. article of March, 2020.

We still do not have a good handle on the denominator of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic infections.

Still - the major at risk groups are elderly with underlying disease, and the immunisuppressed.

Not to say young and healthy people cannot be severely affected - it does - but at a lower rate than Influenza A -IMHO.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

When he estimated the number of deaths caused by SARS below, he did not count the asymptomatics. You are mixing apples and oranges.

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.

The underlying assumptions you make about the percentage of the US infected at 1% is contraindicated by many serological studies showing significantly higher rates of infection have already occurred - almost 25% of NYC alone!

If you assume 6-10% percent infection rate in the densely populated areas of the Divided States of America, then you get much closer to the current number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in America according to the government, subject to your reasonable assumption of a 0.3% infection fatality rate.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

The underlying assumptions you make about the percentage of the US infected at 1% is contraindicated by many serological studies showing significantly higher rates of infection have already occurred - almost 25% of NYC alone!

Any link that puts a count with these serological studies? You still mixed apples with oranges in post #40.

Right now in the USA you have 3 million infections (includes with symptoms and without symptoms) and 88,000 deaths. Do the math, death rate of CV19 is higher than .3% which is what the professor from Stanford calculated/estimated for SARS.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by R.M.

I just hope everyone remembers this shit storm when it’s time to vote.

Yeah, I'll remember it. Too bad Justin Amash took his name out of the hat. I may have to write in Amy the Wonder Dog.