We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[friendly fred]

Revenant: I have repeatedly said we need more data to be sure and that I'm making inferences that are reasonable if a bit hopeful at this point.

Additionally, we have naturally greater social distancing inherently built in to our existence here in Texas that differentiates us from NYC and their more closely packed society. I have lived in both places and you put up with much closer contact in Manhattan as well as breathing the same air and touching the same filthy surfaces. Thank God for automatic touchfree faucets and soap dispensers.

Walking around in Manhattan in the theater district and waiting in line for shows while thousands of motherfuckers are right on top of you, going through Times Square and pushing through crowds and similar things occur all the time in Manhattan and rarely in Dallas.

DART has nothing even close to the chaos and density of the NYC subway, which has always been filthy as hell.

The only place I have ever been that is more packed than NYC is Shanghai.

Not only that, anyone who has traveled as much as I have can tell you that plenty of filthy motherfuckers don't even wash their hands after using the bathroom in airport, train station, subway station and other public areas. The number of people who do so in crowded areas multiplies the risk considerably.

If you don't understand the term I'm using and you are too lazy to see what I was referencing perhaps you are the dipshit.

[HoeHummer]

We all know what a fucking fraud yous are, DSK. Even those of us who haven’t been around very long.

This latest fitness campaign of lies is almost as laughable as your meeting other posters for a donnybrook.

Classic case of Keyboard Courage.

And it looks like TEXAS has done a great job of flattening the curve.

I

[friendly fred]

Update:

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857
02Apr2020 positive tests 4,669 negative tests 46,010 deaths 70 total tests 50679
03Apr2020 positive tests 5,330 negative tests 50,434 deaths 90 total tests 55764
04Apr2020 positive tests 6,110 negative tests 57,641 deaths 105 total tests 63751
05Apr2020 positive tests 6,812 negative tests 64,126 deaths 122 total tests 70,938

9 out of 10 cases test negative among symptomatic persons getting limited resources. Just think how low it would be if everyone were tested.

Positive cases each day:

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse
(4669-3997)/3997 = 16.8% increase - not exponential
(5330-4669)/4669 = 14.2% increase - 2 straight days of a lower increase
(6110-5330)/5330 = 14.6% increase - flattened yet?
(6812-6110)/6110 = 11.4% increase - diminishing increase

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low - hopefully this continues to be very low.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17, 12, 20, 15, 22

[Chung Tran]

I saw the top 10 listed today, Texas is not on it.. I don't know where we are, but considering we are #2 in population (and #1 is getting decimated by the virus), I think we have done an exemplary job!

I hope we don't let our guard down, though.. keep it solitary through April, I don't want to bend the cycle, I want to break it.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I saw the top 10 listed today, Texas is not on it.. I don't know where we are, but considering we are #2 in population (and #1 is getting decimated by the virus), I think we have done an exemplary job!

I hope we don't let our guard down, though.. keep it solitary through April, I don't want to bend the cycle, I want to break it.

Yes indeed.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I saw the top 10 listed today, Texas is not on it.. I don't know where we are, but considering we are #2 in population (and #1 is getting decimated by the virus), I think we have done an exemplary job!

I hope we don't let our guard down, though.. keep it solitary through April, I don't want to bend the cycle, I want to break it.

#1 in population is California, and while they currently have more deaths per day than Texas, Texas is projected to ultimately have more deaths by the U. of Washington IHME forecast. New York, which is getting decimated, is #4 in population now. Editorial comment: New York used to be #1 in population but high taxes caused a lot of people to leave.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Tiny

#1 in population is California, and while they currently have more deaths per day than Texas, Texas is projected to ultimately have more deaths by the U. of Washington IHME forecast. New York, which is getting decimated, is #4 in population now. Editorial comment: New York used to be #1 in population but high taxes caused a lot of people to leave.

oh yes, #4.. I'm living in the 1960's, as I try to do about many things

I disagree about us surpassing California. considering we have 5 of the top 16 highest city populations in Texas (don't tell me we don't, I know we do ), we are doing a great job.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

oh yes, #4.. I'm living in the 1960's, as I try to do about many things

I disagree about us surpassing California. considering we have 5 of the top 16 highest city populations in Texas (don't tell me we don't, I know we do ), we are doing a great job.

We may not surpass California -- at present they've got quite a few more deaths than we do. And if Texas gets or has already gotten its act together, with testing, tracing, isolation of people who are infected, social distancing and masks, we can bust the bell curve and level deaths out at a low level like South Korea has done. We're doing a good part of that in my community. I suspect that it's not happening everywhere in Texas though.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I saw the top 10 listed today, Texas is not on it.. I don't know where we are, but considering we are #2 in population (and #1 is getting decimated by the virus), I think we have done an exemplary job!

I hope we don't let our guard down, though.. keep it solitary through April, I don't want to bend the cycle, I want to break it.

So what going to happen in June when people from MX and Brazil and other countries that weren't "shutdown" or were "shutdown in virtue signaling only" and more CV hotspots pop up in places where they were thought it was "broken?"

Are we going to isolate those places again for 3 months? I've asked this question several times and don't believe I've received a credible answer.

Testing people is a step with a available and accurate test but given the "gestation period" is up to 14 days, I see multiple shutdown periods in the US under your scenario. It's just not going to work without devastating economic and social consequences. Let the CV go thru the population and burn itself out. IMO, it's already doing it.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

thing is, Texas was ahead of almost everyone in adopting the social distancing. assuming we don't fuck it up, Texas should come out on the other side much better than most areas.

but to suggest that weeks ago we flattened the curve is absurd. the curve had not even started yet.

Here in Houston, we just started social distancing a few days ago. Yeah we shut down dining rooms, bars and sports areanas but all major grocery stores had people exposed to hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

We may not surpass California -- at present they've got quite a few more deaths than we do. And if Texas gets or has already gotten its act together, with testing, tracing, isolation of people who are infected, social distancing and masks, we can bust the bell curve and level deaths out at a low level like South Korea has done. We're doing a good part of that in my community. I suspect that it's not happening everywhere in Texas though.

+1


Good post Tiny.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

+1


Good post Tiny.

Adav8s28, What has California been doing to stem the tide? I'd guess LA and San Francisco had more traffic with China than NYC, but you're not getting hit nearly as hard. Some of this as others have pointed out is the dense concentration of people in NYC. And public transportation there. Still you're doing better than Louisiana and Michigan.

[HoeHummer]

Are they testing for the Orange Fever in Texas?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Are they testing for the Orange Fever in Texas?

You live in Austin - you tell us.

[gnadfly]

HoseHummer is patient 0 for Trump Derangement Syndrome.