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But in an open convention after a contested nomination, I think either Cruz or Kasich will get the nomination over Trump.
Trump got this far because the GOP vote was split among at least a half dozen other candidates.
Trump will never get above the 35% of the base that wants only him.
Somebody else will get the 65% that wants anybody BUT Trump.
Yeah, that's everyone else's talking points. We'll know Wednesday where this is heading. Even if Kasich wins Ohio, he'll have less delegates than Rubio. Neither will win another state. It's down to Trump and Cruz. Neither are palatable to the powers that be. I'll vote for either one over the atrocities from the Dems. I certainly won't have a silly protest vote.
But in an open convention after a contested nomination, I think either Cruz or Kasich will get the nomination over Trump.
Trump got this far because the GOP vote was split among at least a half dozen other candidates.
Trump will never get above the 35% of the base that wants only him.
Somebody else will get the 65% that wants anybody BUT Trump.
Your numbers are off. According to the latest smart people (whoever they are), Trump will arrive at the convention within 2% of having a majority if their numbers are correct. Trump is going to have to take one state that they don't expect.
Your numbers are off. According to the latest smart people (whoever they are), Trump will arrive at the convention within 2% of having a majority if their numbers are correct. Trump is going to have to take one state that they don't expect.
My numbers aren't off.
The percentage of delegates does not equal the percentage of votes you get. Some states are winner take all. So, you can get 100% of the delegates with barely 50% of the vote. Others are weighted so you can get 60% of the delegates with a plurality of only 40%.
He can get 48% of the delegates with only 35% of the votes.
Just look at Hillary and the warped delegate count in the Democratic primaries.
The percentage of delegates does not equal the percentage of votes you get. Some states are winner take all. So, you can get 100% of the delegates with barely 50% of the vote. Others are weighted so you can get 60% of the delegates with a plurality of only 40%.
He can get 48% of the delegates with only 35% of the votes.
Just look at Hillary and the warped delegate count in the Democratic primaries.
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Don't even compare the bizarro party with how the GOP does business (they are getting closer though). No, the number crunchers take all that into account. Winner take all and proportional states and they say that Trump will fall just short. Now maybe they're playing politics and trying to discourage Trump supporters or maybe they're trying to encourage the Kasich and Rubio supporters. Still, their numbers are based on the polls from a few days ago when Rubio had a chance in Florida. So Trump has to take one state (at least 55 delegates) that they don't expect him to take and the deal is done. It looks like that Trump will win in Florida (99 delegates, winner take all) but I don't know how they factored that. So this Tuesday (tomorrow) may be the straw that broke the camels back.
Don't even compare the bizarro party with how the GOP does business (they are getting closer though). No, the number crunchers take all that into account. Winner take all and proportional states and they say that Trump will fall just short. Now maybe they're playing politics and trying to discourage Trump supporters or maybe they're trying to encourage the Kasich and Rubio supporters. Still, their numbers are based on the polls from a few days ago when Rubio had a chance in Florida. So Trump has to take one state (at least 55 delegates) that they don't expect him to take and the deal is done. It looks like that Trump will win in Florida (99 delegates, winner take all) but I don't know how they factored that. So this Tuesday (tomorrow) may be the straw that broke the camels back.
My point - which you are missing - is that in an OPEN convention (once the delegates are released after a first vote), Trump will not get anything near what he has now in a delegate count.
The committed delegates will no longer be committed and they won't vote for Trump after the first round. That is where Kasich or Cruz has to jump in to grab a majority of delegates. Maybe after multiple rounds of voting.
Throughout the GOP, Trump can't get any more than about 35% of the voters. That was fine when he had 5-10 opponents. But it won't work so well when the delegates respond to the 65% of the GOP that wants anybody but Trump.
My point - which you are missing - is that in an OPEN convention (once the delegates are released after a first vote), Trump will not get anything near what he has now in a delegate count.
The committed delegates will no longer be committed and they won't vote for Trump after the first round. That is where Kasich or Cruz has to jump in to grab a majority of delegates. Maybe after multiple rounds of voting.
Throughout the GOP, Trump can't get any more than about 35% of the voters. That was fine when he had 5-10 opponents. But it won't work so well when the delegates respond to the 65% of the GOP that wants anybody but Trump.
If Trump doesn't get to 1237, he will employ the art of the deal before the convention. He'll make a deal with Cruz and stick it up everyone's ass.
Boehner Endorses Kasich
