TRUMP 2020 U.S.A.

[sportfisherman]

EE and SpeedRacer have it right,very astutely so.This is not 2016.

Chumps lack of a political record last time helped him.He has one now and it will not help him this time.

Hillary was not warm,charismatic,or likeable.In fact she was negative in all those regards.Biden may not be great in those arenas but at least not negatively so.

They did not mention but it should be acknowledged that Chump also had benefit of Russian meddling in 2016 that may or may not be present this time.

Then we come to the big problems for Chump;
1.His slow,faltering,up and down,failed virus response.
2.His failed social unrest stance and response.
3.The bad economy.The Dow Jones is not the only barometer of the economy although it too will fall again and stay down.Too many out of work.Many businesses and jobs will not come back.There are about to be evictions and foreclosures.

Chump is done.He has too many hurdles to overcome.Plus many of his offenses which delight the Always Chumpers, his solid base,the true TDS that would condone him shooting someone in NYC on 5th Ave,those offenses are not liked or found to be funny by the majority.

So he is left with about 30% of others with his Grievances.It's so unfair.Chump and the Chumpettes are So mistreated.After the election maybe they can all throw a Temper Tantrum !!

[BJonesBaby]

I’ve seen some people suggest that an armed civil war is on the horizon. I hope that’s not the temper tantrum you are referring to. The Trumpists are petrified.

[foxnews69]

You are right. Especially in the Hillary point. Many people, like me, were AGAINST HILLARY, not for Trump. Biden is just another politician.

Originally Posted by sportfisherman

EE and SpeedRacer have it right,very astutely so.This is not 2016.

Chumps lack of a political record last time helped him.He has one now and it will not help him this time.

Hillary was not warm,charismatic,or likeable.In fact she was negative in all those regards.Biden may not be great in those arenas but at least not negatively so.

They did not mention but it should be acknowledged that Chump also had benefit of Russian meddling in 2016 that may or may not be present this time.

Then we come to the big problems for Chump;
1.His slow,faltering,up and down,failed virus response.
2.His failed social unrest stance and response.
3.The bad economy.The Dow Jones is not the only barometer of the economy although it too will fall again and stay down.Too many out of work.Many businesses and jobs will not come back.There are about to be evictions and foreclosures.

Chump is done.He has too many hurdles to overcome.Plus many of his offenses which delight the Always Chumpers, his solid base,the true TDS that would condone him shooting someone in NYC on 5th Ave,those offenses are not liked or found to be funny by the majority.

So he is left with about 30% of others with his Grievances.It's so unfair.Chump and the Chumpettes are So mistreated.After the election maybe they can all throw a Temper Tantrum !!

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by BJonesBaby

I’ve seen some people suggest that an armed civil war is on the horizon. I hope that’s not the temper tantrum you are referring to. The Trumpists are petrified.

No temper tantrum. Unlike the rioters and looters!

Civil War? The war would be quick!

[winn dixie]

[BJonesBaby]

I believe it’s obvious that there is a segment of our population that still refuses to concede the outcome of that war. Trump hates losers. I wonder why he attracts so many.

[sportfisherman]

I forgot to mention that despite all the things Chump had going for him in 2016 he still lost the Popular Vote by a pretty significant amount.

And now he is agitating mothers regarding the intent to force their children to school under threats.

Chump is DONE !! There won't be any civil war.

[Austin Ellen]

This is interesting. I found an article by a Democratic Rep.- Elissa Slotkin - sounding the alarm about the polls. She is not a Trump fan. But her assessment of the polls is spot on. I always referred to them as "the secret Trump voters."

“I think they’re inaccurate,” she replies without hesitation. “Here’s the thing. When I started to run and I had to hire a pollster, I interviewed a bunch of different folks and I decided to do what we do sometimes at the Pentagon, which is to take a ‘bad cop’ approach to the interview. … It was five or six folks that I interviewed, and I said, ‘You got something wrong. You screwed up in 2016. What did you get wrong? And how are you going to fix it?”

Only one pollster, Slotkin says, admitted that he got it wrong. That was the person—Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based firm—she hired.

“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” she explains. “On a survey, if someone says, ‘I’m not sure I’m going to vote,’ you don’t usually continue the conversation. And some of them didn’t have any desire to be on those poll calls; they didn’t have the 20 minutes to talk to somebody. They didn’t want to do it. And so, they were fundamentally undercounted.”

Slotkin, ever the intel analyst—identifying trends, compiling a report, presenting a conclusion—tells me, with a high degree of confidence, “I believe that same thing is happening right now.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...s-trump-351513

Originally Posted by EagleEye

There were a lot higher levels of undecideds back in 2016. Many of those undecideds took a flyer on Trump, hoping he would grow into the job. Trump, for better or worse, is a known quantity this time around, so fewer "flyers" are in play in 2020.



Also, in 2016 polling, HRC also never broke the 50%+, Biden has. So Trump has challenges ahead, especially if COVID lingers into OCT/NOV. If he can cut Biden's lead down to 5.5-6% in the polls he would be within the polling margin of error to electorally squeak by.

[EagleEye]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

This is interesting. I found an article by a Democratic Rep.- Elissa Slotkin - sounding the alarm about the polls. She is not a Trump fan. But her assessment of the polls is spot on. I always referred to them as "the secret Trump voters."

“I think they’re inaccurate,” she replies without hesitation. “Here’s the thing. When I started to run and I had to hire a pollster, I interviewed a bunch of different folks and I decided to do what we do sometimes at the Pentagon, which is to take a ‘bad cop’ approach to the interview. … It was five or six folks that I interviewed, and I said, ‘You got something wrong. You screwed up in 2016. What did you get wrong? And how are you going to fix it?”

Only one pollster, Slotkin says, admitted that he got it wrong. That was the person—Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based firm—she hired.

“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” she explains. “On a survey, if someone says, ‘I’m not sure I’m going to vote,’ you don’t usually continue the conversation. And some of them didn’t have any desire to be on those poll calls; they didn’t have the 20 minutes to talk to somebody. They didn’t want to do it. And so, they were fundamentally undercounted.”

Slotkin, ever the intel analyst—identifying trends, compiling a report, presenting a conclusion—tells me, with a high degree of confidence, “I believe that same thing is happening right now.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...s-trump-351513

She is wise to take the polls with a grain of salt. The pollsters have spent 4 years trying to refine their techniques to make it more accurate. We shall have to wait to find out if they improved.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

This is interesting. I found an article by a Democratic Rep.- Elissa Slotkin - sounding the alarm about the polls. She is not a Trump fan. But her assessment of the polls is spot on. I always referred to them as "the secret Trump voters."

“I think they’re inaccurate,” she replies without hesitation. “Here’s the thing. When I started to run and I had to hire a pollster, I interviewed a bunch of different folks and I decided to do what we do sometimes at the Pentagon, which is to take a ‘bad cop’ approach to the interview. … It was five or six folks that I interviewed, and I said, ‘You got something wrong. You screwed up in 2016. What did you get wrong? And how are you going to fix it?”

Only one pollster, Slotkin says, admitted that he got it wrong. That was the person—Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based firm—she hired.

“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” she explains. “On a survey, if someone says, ‘I’m not sure I’m going to vote,’ you don’t usually continue the conversation. And some of them didn’t have any desire to be on those poll calls; they didn’t have the 20 minutes to talk to somebody. They didn’t want to do it. And so, they were fundamentally undercounted.”

Slotkin, ever the intel analyst—identifying trends, compiling a report, presenting a conclusion—tells me, with a high degree of confidence, “I believe that same thing is happening right now.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...s-trump-351513

Polls in 2018 were near perfect.

Polls in 2016 at the national level were near perfect but missed on a few states, notably Wisconsin. The final polls before the election showed Trump ahead in Michigan and within the margin of error in states like Pennsylvania and Florida.

I read an article yesterday that in all probability polls under sampled those in rural areas for whatever reason (harder to reach those voters?) which were heavily for Trump. There were also many more undecided voters on election day in 2016 and the majority opted for Trump. There are fewer undecided voters in 2020.

I said before I am somewhat skeptical of the polls this year. If true and the vote was taken today, it would be Biden with an easy victory. Biden leads by around 6% in Florida overall and the recent poll in Texas has him up 5%.

But I will say right now -- today Trump's approval rating according to 538 is -14.6% with 40.5% of the people polled approving of his performance. Overall at the national level, Biden leads by about 7 or 8%. If those numbers are the same, or close to that, on election day, Trump loses.

In my opinion, Trump needs a huge mis-step by Biden or Trump needs something huge on the positive side for him in order to win. And Trump MUST win Florida in order to win the election. Watch how much emphasis he puts on Florida in the next 3 1/2 months.

[BJonesBaby]

Let’s see how many more blunders by DeSantis affect Trump’s prospects. I believe Florida will reject Trump overwhelmingly. For Florida, that means without a recount.

[Austin Ellen]

And that's the thing I kept missing. Trump was not on the ballot in 2018. Even though he endorsed certain people - he
wasn't on anything. Currently, I'm not registered to vote as I moved to San Antonio. However, I will be registering. So I wonder how they would count that. There are alot of variables when you throw Trump in the mix. And he knows it!






QUOTE=SpeedRacerXXX;1062125974]Polls in 2018 were near perfect.

Polls in 2016 at the national level were near perfect but missed on a few states, notably Wisconsin. The final polls before the election showed Trump ahead in Michigan and within the margin of error in states like Pennsylvania and Florida.

I read an article yesterday that in all probability polls under sampled those in rural areas for whatever reason (harder to reach those voters?) which were heavily for Trump. There were also many more undecided voters on election day in 2016 and the majority opted for Trump. There are fewer undecided voters in 2020.

I said before I am somewhat skeptical of the polls this year. If true and the vote was taken today, it would be Biden with an easy victory. Biden leads by around 6% in Florida overall and the recent poll in Texas has him up 5%.

But I will say right now -- today Trump's approval rating according to 538 is -14.6% with 40.5% of the people polled approving of his performance. Overall at the national level, Biden leads by about 7 or 8%. If those numbers are the same, or close to that, on election day, Trump loses.

In my opinion, Trump needs a huge mis-step by Biden or Trump needs something huge on the positive side for him in order to win. And Trump MUST win Florida in order to win the election. Watch how much emphasis he puts on Florida in the next 3 1/2 months.[/QUOTE]

[SpeedRacerXXX]

[QUOTE=Austin Ellen;1062126066]And that's the thing I kept missing. Trump was not on the ballot in 2018. Even though he endorsed certain people - he
wasn't on anything.

You can read the 2018 results anyway you want. To me the incredible turnout by voters, especially Democratic voters, was due to voter dislike for Trump more than any other factor. The candidates up for election had much less to do with the record turnout in my opinion. People showed up and voted against Trump, not for the Democratic candidates. You and others can knock lack of voter enthusiasm for Biden all you want. The dislike for Trump will be the deciding factor in the election.

The November 2018 election is widely recognized for its high voter turnout. Census Bureau data released today show who is behind the historic 11 percentage point increase from the last midterm election in 2014.

Voter turnout went up among all voting age and major racial and ethnic groups. Fifty-three percent of the citizen voting-age population voted in 2018, the highest midterm turnout in four decades, while the 2014 election had the lowest.


https://www.census.gov/library/stori...n-turnout.html

[cinderbella]

When Trump first announced he would hold his rally in Tulsa on the 99th anniversary of the Tulsa Race Massacre, Stephen Miller's White Nationalism agenda was on full display. That was flat out proof. That was no mistake. That was a motherfucking boot kick to the head of a specific population of American citizens.

As an American and a human being, I cannot support anyone who pulls that shit and then lies and claims they had no fucking idea. Get your head out of your chronically self victimization claiming ass and move the fuck to the USSR, they love that nationalism shit over there.

Trump was referred to as a "Cash Poor Client" by his realtor representing him when he agreed to rent his NY state property to Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi for about one hundred thousand dollars in 2009. reference: themoth.org The Dictators of Westchester County.

[Austin Ellen]

And yet, there was a race out in Calf that got little press.
The Calf 25th Congressional District. Mike Garcia flipped a seat that was voted blue in the 2018 midterm. In fact, Mr. Garcia is the first Rep to flip a seat held by a Dem since 1998. I don't think the election will be a referendum on Trump. I think it will come down to policies. And I think that race in Calf showed it. Of course, there will be folks who will vote because of their dislike of Trump. That's a given.





[QUOTE=SpeedRacerXXX;1062126103]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

And that's the thing I kept missing. Trump was not on the ballot in 2018. Even though he endorsed certain people - he
wasn't on anything.

You can read the 2018 results anyway you want. To me the incredible turnout by voters, especially Democratic voters, was due to voter dislike for Trump more than any other factor. The candidates up for election had much less to do with the record turnout in my opinion. People showed up and voted against Trump, not for the Democratic candidates. You and others can knock lack of voter enthusiasm for Biden all you want. The dislike for Trump will be the deciding factor in the election.

The November 2018 election is widely recognized for its high voter turnout. Census Bureau data released today show who is behind the historic 11 percentage point increase from the last midterm election in 2014.

Voter turnout went up among all voting age and major racial and ethnic groups. Fifty-three percent of the citizen voting-age population voted in 2018, the highest midterm turnout in four decades, while the 2014 election had the lowest.


https://www.census.gov/library/stori...n-turnout.html