Quote:
Originally Posted by KCGator
I’m highly degree’d but admittedly with a technology focus. Minimal competence in microbiology, immunology, or general medicine with the depth of those trained in the field. So medical is not my wheelhouse.
That said, I have been looking at the pieces of this COVID puzzle and trying to assimilate to understand with depth. Intentionally refraining from MSM influence.
https://youtu.be/wyjtDH__Px4
Now, I’ve seen how polarized people are on this. It’s like politics. People believe what they’ve chosen to believe based on the influencers in their lives that they deem of value. So I’m not trying to change any minds here just gather thoughts/perspectives from a different focus group.
KCGator |
The doctor was correct when he was talking about microbiology, immunology, or general medicine.
The doctor is wrong when he talked about models: that is out of his field and he just doesn't understand what models are. That is obvious when he made the statement:
about how the models "
predicted hundreds of thousands of death, which was inaccurate."
A lot of people who want to get attention for their own ego get on the news and make comment about what has not happened. They are idiots when it comes to statistical models: they should STFU.
Let me try to explain: models are not predictive in anyway shape or form. The correct word is
"projected" based upon current conditions. The projected number of dead was over one million people. Oh, you don't want that many people to die, change the current conditions. Got it?
Statistics is my field, I know it well. I may have started out in the areas of microbiology, immunology, pharmacy and chemistry: Viet Nam changed that. But I got the GI bill and did Graduate level statistics before going into other work. Statistics is not about describing what is: it is about
how we can change what will be. It is about changing what we are doing to get a different result. Models are meant to bring about changes for different results.
Remember the normal deviation curve and the sigma? Total beginning stuff for most people that does not apply to what has happened with this virus.
The intent of models and statistical projections are to change the future outcome of events: We do not accept the standard deviation curve, we want to change it
One project I worked on was the intentional skewing of the standard deviation:
We are filling a package with one pound of goods,
anything more than 1 pound is giving stuff away for free and we are loosing money,
anything less than one pound is cheating the buyer, and is not allowed, not even on a single package - no ever.
The goods sold have moisture, moisture is lost over time. How much is lost over time?
What is the maximum time it takes (shelf life) to sell the last 1 pound package.
The last package sold must be more than or equal 1 pound.
There are 454 grams per pound, how many grams per package can we reduce.
We have 15 packaging plants, each packaging 300,000 pound per day 260 days/year.
If we change what we are doing, how much money can we save?
You don't like where this road trip is taking you, take a right turn at the next corner and drive somewhere else. Some really smart people don't understand this, so don't feel alone.
We had a model that projected over 1 million Americans would die from this thing: so far we have about 63,000 people who have died. That is a good thing! What? read the beginning sentence in this paragraph again! Out leaders changed what was projected to happen into a much less severe result. Be happy about that.
The models only project: President Trump listened to the experts about what the statistical models really meant, and he changed the conditions the models used to show what could (not would) happen.
President Trump can be (and at times he is) rude and crude, but he knows how to organize business. You don't do it alone, you organize teams to get the job done and take there advice. It is not one person, it is the team organization that gets things done. He did it, and to his credit, he has given the credit to others. To step away from then lime light is something that a the policitcal hacks would just not do.
Now then: back to a statistical example we studied in graduate school.
One of the major battles in the Pacific in WWII was fought solely by statistics.
- The first question was: where is the Japanese Navy right now, and where will they be in the near future.
- The second question was: what methods do we use to locate the Japanese Navy. The answer - all the spotter planes we have available.
- The third question was: How do we deploy the spotter planes to find them, what is the direction of travel and return and what is the grid pattern we will use and why? Keep in mind that this is a moving target: what direction would the Japanese Navy be moving and why?
- The Fourth Question was how do we move our ships to keep from being found while our spotter plains are attempting to find the Japanese Navy? Yet, at the same time allowing the returning spotter plains to find us on their return flight?
- All of the above must be carried out in radio silence.
Thoughts on this video
