Poll suggests Heidi Heitkamp in trouble if she votes against Kavanaugh

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by gfejunkie

The "Brett bump" is real.

Any lead the dimretards had has evaporated. Leave it to the undisputed champs of the unintended consequence.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattve...natio-n2524876

While the Quinnipiac poll has the Democratic lead cut in half, it is still +7%.

https://hotair.com/archives/2018/10/...ut-half-month/

FiveThirtyEight still puts Republican chances of holding onto the House at about 25% even after taking the Kavanaugh effect into consideration.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...dterm-chances/

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

While the Quinnipiac poll has the Democratic lead cut in half, it is still +7%.

https://hotair.com/archives/2018/10/...ut-half-month/

FiveThirtyEight still puts Republican chances of holding onto the House at about 25% even after taking the Kavanaugh effect into consideration.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...dterm-chances/

Do you know how 538 operates? They’re not pollsters. They’re statisticians. They take an average what the pollsters put out. Garbage in, garbage out. That’s why they were so far off the 2016 Election. The age of Trump is much different. Pollsters haven’t quite figured it out yet. Here’s another offer Speedy, I say the Republicans hold the House. You in?

[gfejunkie]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

While the Quinnipiac poll has the Democratic lead cut in half, it is still +7%.

More like 2%...

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/65401...dge-evaporates

Well within the margin of error. Like I said... *POOF* EVAPORATED!

No blue wave for you.

[I B Hankering]

Per Hot Air: "the Q-poll’s margin of error is ±3.7%. The movement for either party falls right around the MoE — three points down for Democrats, four points up for Republicans."

[garhkal]

Originally Posted by gfejunkie

The "Brett bump" is real.

Any lead the dimretards had has evaporated. Leave it to the undisputed champs of the unintended consequence.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattve...natio-n2524876

GOOD. let's hope that unintended consequence leads to dems LOSING seats.. Not gaining them.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by gfejunkie

More like 2%...

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/65401...dge-evaporates

Well within the margin of error. Like I said... *POOF* EVAPORATED!

No blue wave for you.

2 different polls, 2 different answers.

I am not predicting a "blue wave". I am predicting Democrats regaining control of the House.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

Do you know how 538 operates? They’re not pollsters. They’re statisticians. They take an average what the pollsters put out. Garbage in, garbage out. That’s why they were so far off the 2016 Election. The age of Trump is much different. Pollsters haven’t quite figured it out yet. Here’s another offer Speedy, I say the Republicans hold the House. You in?

I can't find FiveThirtyEight's 2016 forecast for the House. They do use polls in their modeling but rely on other input also. In 2008 Nate Silver predicted Obama winning 349 electoral votes. He got 365. 49 out of 50 states called correctly. In 2012 Nate Silver did better -- 50 out of 50 states called correctly!!

So we'll find out in 33 days which prediction was the anomaly by FiveThirtyEight -- 2016 or 2008/2012.

[lustylad]

Heidi H. now says she will vote against Kav. I guess she figures she is going to lose in November anyway, so there is no point in crossing her fellow dims.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Heidi H. now says she will vote against Kav. I guess she figures she is going to lose in November anyway, so there is no point in crossing her fellow dims.

Yep, she won’t be able to find a job at home. Might as well stick around DC.

[garhkal]

Friken coward. LETS ensure she's ran OUT of dc.

[Lantern2814]

That pretty well seals her fate. There's one gain for the Republican side. My gut feeling right now is the Republicans lose some seats but keep the House and gain some seats in the Senate.