1st 2012 Prediction - Iran and Israel

[theaustinescorts]

Israel will not attack Iran.

Everything going on is just sabre-rattling.

The Israelis, Brits and Americans will continue with bone-headed covert action to pester the Iranian bomb program, but it won't make a dent.

The Iranian bomb program will continue but may not actually result in a finished bomb. They will get to the brink of a bomb but may not actually finish it.

[kingorpawn]

I know one reason we are getting out of Iraq is because it will make it easier for the US/Israel to attack Iran. Rumor has it, the US has recently received new bunker busting bombs. Coincidence? Secondly, Israel has very sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities that could easily disable Iran's early warning systems.
I say Israel or the US or both will attack Iran before the summer of 2012.

[DTorrchia]

Actually, the U.S. has already supplied Israel with 55 US-made GBU-28 bunker-busting bombs
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2011/sep/27/iran-nuclear-weapons

The new 30,000-pound massive ordnance penetrator, or MOP, known now as the biggest "bunker-busting bomb" in the world is designed for the B-2 and B52's, so we'll probably let Israel hit some of the smaller sites while we focus on the deeper concealed main targets.
Despite what TAE thinks, it will happen, it's simply a matter of time.

You gotta love Ahmadinejad and his cronies though. Just when you think we have the dumbest politicians, they go and pull a stunt like storming the British Embassy. Gives the Brits an excuse to pull out their staff, thereby paving the way even quicker for military action to be possible.
Thanks Mahmoud!
LLTTK!

[Munchmasterman]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Israel will not attack Iran.

Everything going on is just sabre-rattling.

The Israelis, Brits and Americans will continue with bone-headed covert action to pester the Iranian bomb program, but it won't make a dent.

The Iranian bomb program will continue but may not actually result in a finished bomb. They will get to the brink of a bomb but may not actually finish it.

Sabra sabre-rattling?

Isn't this a 2011 prediction about 2012?

Survey says.............."yes!" (73%)
The next most popular answer was " what?" at 15% followed by "fuck you!" at 7%, with"Who cares?" at 5%.

[DTorrchia]

Originally Posted by Munchmasterman

Sabra sabre-rattling?

Isn't this a 2011 prediction about 2012?

Survey says.............."yes!" (73%)
The next most popular answer was " what?" at 15% followed by "fuck you!" at 7%, with"Who cares?" at 5%.

I like your response better than mine!

[Munchmasterman]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

I know one reason we are getting out of Iraq is because it will make it easier for the US/Israel to attack Iran. Rumor has it, the US has recently received new bunker busting bombs. Coincidence? Secondly, Israel has very sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities that could easily disable Iran's early warning systems.
I say Israel or the US or both will attack Iran before the summer of 2012.

At night, a B-2 is invisable in every sense of the of the word....until they open their bomb bay doors.

Depending on speed and altitude, they can put steel on target in 5-10 seconds. Bunker busters are dropped from much higher altitude so impact after detection no more than 30-40 seconds

[theaustinescorts]

Providing the "bunker busters" is one of about 97 different things the Israelis are doing publicly to give the impression that they're preparing for an attack....but they are not.

Every authority I know of [including in Israel] agrees that:

1.the targets are dispersed to too many points
2.they are dispersed to the interior
3.Iranian air defense will attrit too much
4.Israeli missiles would be depleted by one salvo
5.Israeli bombers would need too much re-fueling
6.Israeli bombers are insufficient in number
7.Follow-on strikes would be impossible
8.initial damage insufficient
9.damage would only set back program by a year or so
10.retaliation too risky....
a.Hezbollah
b.Straits closure
c.Arab street
d.China and Russia

IMHO Iran wants to put together the componants so everyone will know they can get there if they need to, but they will not test anything. The consequences of a test are too serious and it's unnecessary.

In the mean time the Covert Action bureaus of five different countries are having too much fun working against this target.* Why go "kinetic?"

*US, UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan

ps...
The Iranians have probably rolled up a large US/UK network in Iran and Lebanon. Yet another blunder by CIA in getting everyone brave enough to work for them killed. Happens too often such as every asset in USSR in 1985 [eleven dead/two extracted].

[Carl]

Ah, I miss the days when people's predictions for the coming year had to do with which celebrities would get divorced, which forgotten movie stars would make a comeback and vague references to the locations of earthquakes.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by DTorrchia

Actually, the U.S. has already supplied Israel with 55 US-made GBU-28 bunker-busting bombs
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2011/sep/27/iran-nuclear-weapons

The new 30,000-pound massive ordnance penetrator, or MOP, known now as the biggest "bunker-busting bomb" in the world is designed for the B-2 and B52's, so we'll probably let Israel hit some of the smaller sites while we focus on the deeper concealed main targets.
Despite what TAE thinks, it will happen, it's simply a matter of time.

You gotta love Ahmadinejad and his cronies though. Just when you think we have the dumbest politicians, they go and pull a stunt like storming the British Embassy. Gives the Brits an excuse to pull out their staff, thereby paving the way even quicker for military action to be possible.
Thanks Mahmoud!
LLTTK!

I agree with everything DT has said. Especially about the Brits Embassy.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Providing the "bunker busters" is one of about 97 different things the Israelis are doing publicly to give the impression that they're preparing for an attack....but they are not.

Every authority I know of [including in Israel] agrees that:

1.the targets are dispersed to too many points
2.they are dispersed to the interior
3.Iranian air defense will attrit too much
4.Israeli missiles would be depleted by one salvo
5.Israeli bombers would need too much re-fueling
6.Israeli bombers are insufficient in number
7.Follow-on strikes would be impossible
8.initial damage insufficient
9.damage would only set back program by a year or so
10.retaliation too risky....
a.Hezbollah
b.Straits closure
c.Arab street
d.China and Russia

IMHO Iran wants to put together the componants so everyone will know they can get there if they need to, but they will not test anything. The consequences of a test are too serious and it's unnecessary.

In the mean time the Covert Action bureaus of five different countries are having too much fun working against this target.* Why go "kinetic?"

*US, UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan

ps...
The Iranians have probably rolled up a large US/UK network in Iran and Lebanon. Yet another blunder by CIA in getting everyone brave enough to work for them killed. Happens too often such as every asset in USSR in 1985 [eleven dead/two extracted].

I disagree with everything Mr. TAE has said. China and Russia are not going to do anything. It's not in their best interest for Iran to have nukes.
Israel has been planning the attack for years. Everything is in place. They just need the go ahead to do it. With the Bunker bombs, they'll push the Iranian program back for a decade. Finally, none of the other Arab countries want Iran with nukes that is why Saudi Arabia gave Israel permission to use its air space for the attack.

[Slotgoop]

There's a new and often overlooked technology available other than conventional bombers. This is kinetic energy weapons launched from space planes or satellites in orbit. They don't use explosive but rely on incredible speeds and their dense mass to penetrate and destroy. Think of a giant GPS guided lawn dart made of depleted Uranium launched at orbital speeeds of around 23000 mph and guided to a target. Add a simple scramjet to make up for the air drag of the atmosphere and you have a pretty formidable weapon that will be very difficult to trace back to the launch point.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by Slotgoop

There's a new and often overlooked technology available other than conventional bombers. This is kinetic energy weapons launched from space planes or satellites in orbit. They don't use explosive but rely on incredible speeds and their dense mass to penetrate and destroy. Think of a giant GPS guided lawn dart made of depleted Uranium launched at orbital speeeds of around 23000 mph and guided to a target. Add a simple scramjet to make up for the air drag of the atmosphere and you have a pretty formidable weapon that will be very difficult to trace back to the launch point.

Like a lot of what passes for "new" technologies in the defense area this is just an old idea that's found new enthusiasm because recently the military's had a blank check.

The limitation with these is the extreme expense of putting heavy objects up into space just so you can use all the energy expended to put them there on a target on the ground.

The energy delivered to the target is roughly the same as the energy required to put the heavy object in space, but it's really expensive to use that energy because of the rockets required to accomplish it, and the other matters of communications, targeting, etc.

It's the most expensive way to destroy anything you could think of.

Give me an old AD-1 with a four bladed propeller, one pilot, and some iron gravity bombs and I can destroy anything.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

I disagree with everything Mr. TAE has said. China and Russia are not going to do anything. It's not in their best interest for Iran to have nukes.
Israel has been planning the attack for years. Everything is in place. They just need the go ahead to do it. With the Bunker bombs, they'll push the Iranian program back for a decade. Finally, none of the other Arab countries want Iran with nukes that is why Saudi Arabia gave Israel permission to use its air space for the attack.

No it's not all in place.

In fact the Israelis don't even have a real plan to do it.

They're pretending to have a plan but it's not really there.

And China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia aren't the biggest issues here - the Arab
Street will explode, the Egyptians will be furious, world opinion will rally to the Iranians, etc., etc.

The Israelis know better than anyone it would be the worst thing they could do. Netanyahu is pretending to be an "outta control madman who won't listen to reason" when he's really a cagey old fox.

No one believes the Iranians are really going to pop off a bomb anyway.

It's much adoo about nothin.

The Iranians just want some pretige like anyone else who are surrounded, and want to show that they have the same technical prowess that the big boys have.

They just want to show off a little in between executing political opponants and torturing dissidents.

[Booth]

You guys really took the bait on this one.

[kingorpawn]

In public, the Israelis will be condemned by the United Nations.
Protest will erupt in all the Arab countries. They will ask for the
destruction of Israel. They will seek revenge.

In private, they will get hand-shakes from those same people
and say 'Good job'..