Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall2.0
You unrealistically wiped 10M bpd out of the world market.
If you did that, production elsewhere would ramp up. 9 months? Easily, if that...
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No... you flippantly and cavalierly suggested we shouldn't pay attention to Saudi Arabia - except to encourage them to fight a war against Iran. I very realistically pointed out what would be at risk in the event of a full-fledged war, something you seem to embrace and relish. It's not just 10 million bpd. Currently around 17 million barrels travel via tanker through the Strait of Hormuz each and every day. That's 1/6 of global consumption.
At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz in only 21 miles wide.
Even without blocking the Strait, Saudi production could be shut down by bombing the pipelines that connect its oil fields with its tanker-loading facilities at Ras-Tanura and Yenbu.
https://info.drillinginfo.com/saudi-...oil-need-know/
It doesn't take much of an imbalance between supply and demand to send world oil prices soaring (or plummeting, for that matter, as they did in 2014). Where is the spigot-ready surplus production capacity that could quickly make up a shortfall of such magnitude? It takes years, not months, to explore, discover, survey, drill and exploit oil and gas fields, whether they are deep underground (and need to be fracked) or lie just below the sands of the Arabian desert.
But even without a disruption of Persian Gulf oil, there are plenty of other powerful reasons why we care what happens in Saudi Arabia. Last year, the Saudis earned over $130 billion from crude exports. If the monarchy is overthrown and replaced by a radical Islamic regime, just imagine how much terrorism and global mischief could be financed by such a massive revenue stream. It would be extremely foolish and myopic for us to fail to pay close attention to Saudi Arabia.
