Coronavirus may have infected 10 times more Americans than reported, CDC says

[dilbert firestorm]

cv19 is roughly analogous to the hong kong flu. the world didn't stop for that flu.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

then join the list of prophets my friend


BAHHAAA


paging ava .. paging ava .. 3 MILLION!!

From the OP, "COULD BE" be 10 times higher. What if it is only 6 times higher? Then the 3 million is number plausible. Using their number of 20,000,000 as the total number of people who are infected with the CV19 you would still get 1,380,000 deaths to reach herd immunity.

Death Rate = 120,000/20,000,000

Death Rate = .006

.006 = Number of deaths/(.70 * 329,000,000)

.006 = Number of deaths / 230,300,000

Number of deaths = .006 * 230,300,000

Number of deaths = 1,380,000

Iovannidis calculation was off. He estimated only 600,000 deaths to reach herd immunity. He estimated only 10,000 deaths with just 1% of the USA population being infected. His estimate was off for both numbers.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

From the OP, "COULD BE" be 10 times higher. What if it is only 6 times higher? Then the 3 million is number plausible. Using their number of 20,000,000 as the total number of people who are infected with the CV19 you would still get 1,380,000 deaths to reach herd immunity.

Death Rate = 120,000/20,000,000

Death Rate = .006

.006 = Number of deaths/(.70 * 329,000,000)

.006 = Number of deaths / 230,300,000

Number of deaths = .006 * 230,300,000

Number of deaths = 1,380,000

Iovannidis calculation was off. He estimated only 600,000 deaths to reach herd immunity. He estimated only 10,000 deaths with just 1% of the USA population being infected. His estimate was off for both numbers.

you are wrong.


thank you valued poster

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Ioannidis was wrong.


thank you valued poster

FIFY

[oeb11]

little'a' - continues to post totally unsupported numbers with no studies or evidence to support quoted.

Just One's own 4th grade math - unimpressive -to say the least.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

From the OP, "COULD BE" be 10 times higher. What if it is only 6 times higher? Then the 3 million is number plausible. Using their number of 20,000,000 as the total number of people who are infected with the CV19 you would still get 1,380,000 deaths to reach herd immunity.

Death Rate = 120,000/20,000,000

Death Rate = .006

.006 = Number of deaths/(.70 * 329,000,000)

.006 = Number of deaths / 230,300,000

Number of deaths = .006 * 230,300,000

Number of deaths = 1,380,000

Iovannidis calculation was off. He estimated only 600,000 deaths to reach herd immunity. He estimated only 10,000 deaths with just 1% of the USA population being infected. His estimate was off for both numbers.

The 1,380,000 is not an unreasonable estimate if we have to go all the way to herd immunity without a vaccine. Tom Frieden, the former head of the CDC, on Fox this morning said there were roughly 5 to 10X more people infected than confirmed cases. You guessed 6, in that range. Another way to get to your number, among the 2.5 million confirmed cases out there right now, there will be more deaths than the 125,000 so far. Remember Ioannidis' article in statnews that Oeb linked to. At the time he wrote the article, 7 people out of 712 cases had died on the Diamond Princess, so Ioannidis ends up with a 1% case fatality rate, which he then adjusted for age because the passengers were older than average. Well, six more people have died since then (13 total) and there are still four in critical condition. So the actual ratio is at least 1.8%, and will be higher if someone else dies.

On the other hand as Friendly Fred said, we should be getting better at dealing with this. We've got remdesivir, dexamethasone, and plasma. Asian countries, like Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong have brought the infection fatality rate down with treatments like a triple anti-viral cocktail. And presumably the medical community isn't as hostile towards any idea that comes from people who speak Chinese as some of the posters here. Combine this with the fact that more younger people and fewer old people are showing up as confirmed cases now and this seems like a more likely scenario.

And the final possibility, which hopefully isn't very likely, is that your number is way low. What happens if immunity to Covid-19 doesn't last and we don't develop a safe, effective vaccine? Then we may be fucked. I don't know what the best response to that would be. Perhaps protect those most at risk as mentioned by Oeb et al, and get on with life. Hopefully more people in the USA would adopt Asian practices and wear masks during covid season. Given the success the Asians have had in dealing with this, you'd suspect though that we won't be faced with something like the common cold that kills 0.5% or whatever of the people who are infected year after year.

Here's an article on the worst case scenario from MIT Technology Review:

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...e-to-covid-19/

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

continues to post totally unsupported numbers with no studies or evidence to support quoted.

Little "o", the number of deaths 120,000 and the number of people infected 20,000,000 came from POST #1. Did you read your own post?

The equation is the same one Iovannidis used in his calculation. However, he used a death rate of .003, which does not work with the numbers in post #1. He calculated far fewer deaths for just one percent the population being infected.

You should take a break little newbie, you can't keep track of your own posts.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The 1,380,000 is not an unreasonable estimate if we have to go all the way to herd immunity without a vaccine. Tom Frieden, the former head of the CDC, on Fox this morning said there were roughly 5 to 10X more people infected than confirmed cases. You guessed 6, in that range. Another way to get to your number, among the 2.5 million confirmed cases out there right now, there will be more deaths than the 125,000 so far. Remember Ioannidis' article in statnews that Oeb linked to. At the time he wrote the article, 7 people out of 712 cases had died on the Diamond Princess, so Ioannidis ends up with a 1% case fatality rate, which he then adjusted for age because the passengers were older than average. Well, six more people have died since then (13 total) and there are still four in critical condition. So the actual ratio is at least 1.8%, and will be higher if someone else dies.

On the other hand as Friendly Fred said, we should be getting better at dealing with this. We've got remdesivir, dexamethasone, and plasma. Asian countries, like Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong have brought the infection fatality rate down with treatments like a triple anti-viral cocktail. And presumably the medical community isn't as hostile towards any idea that comes from people who speak Chinese as some of the posters here. Combine this with the fact that more younger people and fewer old people are showing up as confirmed cases now and this seems like a more likely scenario.

And the final possibility, which hopefully isn't very likely, is that your number is way low. What happens if immunity to Covid-19 doesn't last and we don't develop a safe, effective vaccine? Then we may be fucked. I don't know what the best response to that would be. Perhaps protect those most at risk as mentioned by Oeb et al, and get on with life. Hopefully more people in the USA would adopt Asian practices and wear masks during covid season. Given the success the Asians have had in dealing with this, you'd suspect though that we won't be faced with something like the common cold that kills 0.5% or whatever of the people who are infected year after year.

Here's an article on the worst case scenario from MIT Technology Review:

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...e-to-covid-19/

+1

Excellent post Tiny. We definitely need a vaccine that works.

[rexdutchman]

All I gotto say is the CDC has been WRONG from the start , an China has made Billions off of this with are govs help ,,,,,,

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by oeb11

little'a' - continues to post totally unsupported numbers with no studies or evidence to support quoted.

Just One's own 4th grade math - unimpressive -to say the least.

Typical fear porning. Gots to scare people into thinking that they are relevant and needed. They are always the first to fold up tent stakes and abandon the CHOP. Seems we need more lawn mowers to thin out the weeds.

Speaking of mowing the lawn, here is a 20 second video clip of a civic minded officer doing some mowing and weed whacking:

https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/1...033864704?s=20

At least they went the Go-Green route by mulching, not bagging the clippings.

[Muy Largo]

I get a kick out of a guy like OEB who calls me an elitist because I describe myself as someone who is not an expert on medical issues and I suggest paying more attention to those who are. I know enough to know this: For some reason there are many in our society who seemingly view themselves as "expert" and their opinions as possessing sound and weighty influence because they do some reading on the internet. I'd be willing to bet that OEB has zero or little background in health care or medical training. Yet he is all over the board with confident opinions and criticisms on this topic. Like I said in my first post, we need to respectfully consider the opinions of those who actually possess considerably more knowledge and experience than we do. I'm not pretending to be an expert. I am suggesting we pay keen attention to them.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

+1

We definitely need a vaccine that works.

Duh. Don't forget safe.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by Muy Largo

I get a kick out of a guy like OEB who calls me an elitist because I describe myself as someone who is not an expert on medical issues and I suggest paying more attention to those who are. I know enough to know this: For some reason there are many in our society who seemingly view themselves as "expert" and their opinions as possessing sound and weighty influence because they do some reading on the internet. I'd be willing to bet that OEB has zero or little background in health care or medical training. Yet he is all over the board with confident opinions and criticisms on this topic. Like I said in my first post, we need to respectfully consider the opinions of those who actually possess considerably more knowledge and experience than we do. I'm not pretending to be an expert. I am suggesting we pay keen attention to them.

Remember "Masks don't work" from the folk who supposedly had more knowledge and experience? I do. Then it was "We need masks for our first responsers. You can't have the effective masks." Then it was "You can make a mask out of an old sock." Now that Amazon and the capitalist system have caught up, "everyone needs a mask." Yes, someone needs to pay keen attention. Like you.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Duh. Don't forget safe.

Whatever Covid-19 vaccines that get FDA approval should be safe.

Fauci thinks if only 75% of the population agrees to get vaccinated, it's unlikely we'll get to herd immunity via that route:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fauci-h...virus-vaccine/

And it's very possible 75% won't agree:

https://apnews.com/dacdc8bc428dd4df6511bfa259cfec44

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Remember "Masks don't work" from the folk who supposedly had more knowledge and experience? I do. Then it was "We need masks for our first responsers. You can't have the effective masks." Then it was "You can make a mask out of an old sock." Now that Amazon and the capitalist system have caught up, "everyone needs a mask." Yes, someone needs to pay keen attention. Like you.

There is a lot of truth in that. Back when the only option for most people was making homemade masks, the CDC was telling us not to wear them. The Czechs and Slovaks were in the same boat, but they went ahead and masked up, and are doing much better than most of Western Europe.