The Reality of the Trump Economy

[Austin Ellen]

And yet again you have demonstrated a complete lack of reading comprehension. Congratulations.

Originally Posted by themystic

Yeah I read what she said and it sounded "suspicious" to be polite-( one of my best traits is my politeness). She, and now I can add you, doesn't know her stuff. Good luck in whatever it is you do. I hope its not related to finance. Then again "she" went from Property Management, to Unemployed and Broke, to a Land Owner and Real Estate Investor. And did all that with no money!

[themystic]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

And yet again you have demonstrated a complete lack of reading comprehension. Congratulations.

I forgot. You were one of the investors in Trump Tower Moscow. That's how you got your nickname Moscow Ellen. Im sure you were happy with the tradeoff of Trump being President instead. That's really amazing that you accomplished all of that after being broke during the Obama years. Well done comrade! Bless your Heart

[eccieuser9500]

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/22...d-201903202038

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I couldn't have made money under Obama - I was broke

Real Estate/Land

So when Trump took office in January 2017 you had zero money. And today somehow you are well off financially if I am reading your posts correctly. So even though you were broke in January 2017 you somehow made a small fortune with your investments in calendar year 2017. Sounds like a success story for Forbes.

[Austin Ellen]

First, I apologize if I gave anybody the idea that I am rich. I am not.

Let me make this simple:
Obama economy - bad ( 2008 housing market crash)
Trump - very good.

That's about as simple as I can make it. Hope that helps.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

First, I apologize if I gave anybody the idea that I am rich. I am not.

Let me make this simple:
Obama economy - bad ( 2008 housing market crash)
Trump - very good.

That's about as simple as I can make it. Hope that helps.

Have you read and even tried to comprehend my earlier post? Please go back and read post #91 which compares the DJIA under Obama and Trump. The 2008 housing market crash occurred BEFORE Obama took office. I can't make it more simple than that.

[grean]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

First, I apologize if I gave anybody the idea that I am rich. I am not.

Let me make this simple:
Obama economy - bad ( 2008 housing market crash)
Trump - very good.

That's about as simple as I can make it. Hope that helps.

Bush lost a second term because he increased taxes. Clinton received credit for a amazing economy and a balanced budget that was made possible at least in part by Bush's tax hike.

The his son came in and gave back the surplus as the economy was tanking. People could not get jobs or if they did they were severely underemployed.

Clinton good?
Bush 2 bad?

No! Not at all


Presidents get more credit and more blame than they should regarding the economy.

Bush 1 actually should have gotten credit for the balanced budget that Clinton signed.

Clinton still had to shutdown the government to make it happen and risked a lot of political capital doing so

Bush 2 was actually trying to do what he thought best. Hindsight 20/20.....

[grean]

If Trump loses the trade war with China, the middle class will suffer. If he breaks even, the middle class will suffer. If he wins, he will be in the history books as a guy who said everyone else was wrong and proved himself to be right.

If he loses I guarantee you'll change your tune.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

First, I apologize if I gave anybody the idea that I am rich. I am not.

Let me make this simple:
Obama economy - bad ( 2008 housing market crash)
Trump - very good.

That's about as simple as I can make it. Hope that helps.

Lmao!!! I eagerly await you book. What an amazing story

Your story almost sounds unbelievable. If so that would make you a Liar. Bless your Heart

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by grean

If Trump loses the trade war with China, the middle class will suffer. If he breaks even, the middle class will suffer. If he wins, he will be in the history books as a guy who said everyone else was wrong and proved himself to be right.

How do you even measure whether he loses/breaks even/wins? Our trade deficit with China widened to a record $419 billion last year from $375 billion in 2017. I would be very surprised if it shrinks at all this year. But whatever happens in the trade talks, trumpy will call it a victory.

When the US economy is healthy and growing faster than the rest of the world, we inevitably suck in imports faster than we can boost our exports. Net result is always a larger trade deficit.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by lustylad

How do you even measure whether he loses/breaks even/wins? Our trade deficit with China widened to a record $419 billion last year from $375 billion in 2017. I would be very surprised if it shrinks at all this year. But whatever happens in the trade talks, trumpy will call it a victory.

When the US economy is healthy and growing faster than the rest of the world, we will inevitably suck in imports faster than we can boost our exports. That results in a swelling trade deficit.

Let me make this simple:
Obama economy - bad ( 2008 housing market crash)
Trump - very good.

That's about as simple as I can make it. Hope that helps.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by grean

Presidents get more credit and more blame than they should regarding the economy.

Very true. This is partly a result of the widespread adoption of Keynesian thinking that the federal govt can successfully manage aggregate demand and "fine tune" the economy at will.

The reality is we can ameliorate the business cycle, but not cure it. The private sector is, and will remain, the primary contributor to aggregate demand.

That's not to say government policies don't have a significant impact on the economy. The federal govt has powerful tools to apply - fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy, regulation policies, FX policy, etc.

Generally though, I think it's fair to describe Trump's policies as pro-growth and Obama's as anti-growth. Under Obama, the economy had to overcome headwinds. Under Trump, it is enjoying tailwinds.

Both parties constantly try to attach every good thing that happens in the economy to their own wise and prudently implemented policies, while attributing every bad thing to the other side's policy blunders and stupidity. The truth is somewhere in between.

There is plenty of blame to go around for the 2008 housing bust. It is no more fair to blame it on Bush than it would be to have blamed it on Obama if it had erupted in 2009 instead of 2008.

[grean]

Originally Posted by lustylad

How do you even measure whether he loses/breaks even/wins? Our trade deficit with China widened to a record $419 billion last year from $375 billion in 2017. I would be very surprised if it shrinks at all this year. But whatever happens in the trade talks, trumpy will call it a victory.

When the US economy is healthy and growing faster than the rest of the world, we inevitably suck in imports faster than we can boost our exports. Net result is always a larger trade deficit.

Obama said all of those manufacturing jobs were gone and not coming back. Trump through his aggressive trade negotiations with China, at least now, has brought a lot of those lost jobs back. This is one of the things I side with that wrinkled testicle on....

If he can keep those jobs he wins. If the trade war goes south, many fear those jobs will begin to fade away again as well.

My only concern is that he over simplifies it and doesn't understand as much as he needs to order to win like when he argued with Robert Lighthizerover the binding of Memorandum of Understanding IN FRONT OF CHINA.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

She must have invested in Trump steaks.

Originally Posted by themystic

Lmao!!! I eagerly await you book. What an amazing story

Shhhhh!! Economists are talking.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by grean

Obama said all of those manufacturing jobs were gone and not coming back. Trump through his aggressive trade negotiations with China, at least now, has brought a lot of those lost jobs back.

Agree manufacturing jobs are up nicely under Trump - by almost half a million! Not sure you can link that directly or entirely to his China trade negotiations. You would need to look at where those jobs occurred to see how many are the result of new orders from customers who used to source from China and switched back to domestic suppliers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckde.../#79767c625635

Even then, there may be other compelling reasons to "reshore" manufacturing besides the trade dispute. Usually those decisions are driven by a mix of factors. Here is a good article.

7 Reasons For Bringing Manufacturing Back to the US:

– Shorter manufacturing lead times with domestically made products
– America offers a more skilled workforce
– The rising costs of freight expenses
– Fewer regulatory compliance and intellectual property risks
– Local tax incentives
– Responsiveness to consumer demands
– Offshore wages are rising

https://www.cadimensions.com/blog/on...s-on-the-rise/