An economist says Trump is right: Investment is down and the Fed should help

[matchingmole]

The economy was great under Clinton..a lot had to do with the Dot com boom though. Thing were great under Reagan...if you were working for a Defense Contractor.

[Tiny]

New Player? All right, fresh meat! Just kidding

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

My own ignorance might be at play here, but uhhmm, if long term rates are going down, doesn't that mean there is a surplus of buyers? In other words, the buyers are long on US and short on Chi and Germ

No. If you overlay historical interest rates for the USA 10 year T-note and the German 10 year government bond they match up extremely well except the rates are different. Right now the German rate is -0.7% and the U.S. rate is 1.54%. Yields for the Chinese 10 year bond don't match up as well, but the rate has been falling too. This is a world wide phenomenon. As to your statement, "buyers are long on US and short on Chi and Germ," the dollar is up against the Euro a little since the start of the trade war but not much. Yes, the Chinese renminbi has fallen a lot. Please note that this makes Chinese products cheaper for people who are paying in Euros or Yen or whatever, and helps the Chinese cut prices and sell the Europeans et al what they were selling to us. This depreciation in the renminbi was not engineered primarily by the Chinese government, which has imposed capital controls among other measures to prop up their currency, but rather was caused by President Trump's trade policy -- see bb1961's post above in this thread.

Another thought, when bad news about the trade war comes out, bond yields go down in the U.S. and everywhere else. The market believes the trade war will hinder worldwide economic growth.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

In the present, sounds more like fake news by trying to scare the average consumer into worrying that Orange Man bad economy prior to a National election, seeing whereas we are predominately a consumer economy. Shoot! Even Bill Maher is hoping for a recession - openly. WTactualF?

I don't think Donald Trump or anyone else who's looked at the data would argue that an inverted yield curve does not often predate a recession. That's part of the reason why Trump wants the Fed to bring down rates. People aren't making this up.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

The trade war is a bigger threat to the 'German' and 'Chines' economy than people thought. There, fixed that for you. The US holds all the cards. Really have for evah. Difference is that we know have a playa at the table that knows how to play. Recall the US GDP continues to grow and flourish. Juss say'n...

Why would Germany suffer from this trade war? They're bystanders. They benefit from being able to buy Chinese products more cheaply because of the weak renminbi. They also benefit by selling products to the Chinese that we were formerly exporting to them. They are being hit to an extent though because of a change in sentiment and because slower economic growth in the USA and China will have worldwide effects.

Theoretically this shouldn't affect China that badly. Their exports to the U.S. only account for 3% of their GDP, and they have 6%+ GDP growth. So assume they don't take the products they were selling to the USA and sell them to Germany and other places instead. Assume they burn them for a year and then quit manufacturing them. You've knocked down Chinese GDP growth for one year from 6% to 3%, big deal.

U.S. GDP growth has come down from 3.2% to 2.3% since the start of the trade war. Admittedly, 3.2% probably wasn't sustainable, and a good part of the drop probably has nothing to do with the trade war. Still, I'll stick with what I said, Trump is undoing the good he did with lower corporate taxes and deregulation with his trade war.

[matchingmole]

Trump tweeted "trade wars were good and easy to win"....but he never said who would be the winner.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by matchingmole

Trump tweeted "trade wars were good and easy to win"....but he never said who would be the winner.

Haha! There is no winner. It's like the second war in Iraq.

[matchingmole]

Aren't there" winner"s who win when the stock market plunges?

[bb1961]

Smart as you are...you don't know what short selling is

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Smart as you are...you don't know what short selling is

sounds to me like he hinted that short-sellers win.. you guys on the RIGHT can't take a post on its merit, you have to spin it into something you can attack. fucking Juveniles..

[nevergaveitathought]

the drumbeat has begun

the leftists and their rmedia have begun talking up recession

in the hopes of diminishing trump and taking away from him the single biggest thing americans judge their vote by, the economy

it will only get stronger, this refrain, as these haters and scalawags give voice to, for them, the hope of this self fulfilling prophecy

if they can scare enough people into not buying, not hiring, not expanding, feeling poorer, this hoped for tide might hurt americans enough to turn their vote

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

the drumbeat has begun

the leftists and their rmedia have begun talking up recession

in the hopes of diminishing trump and taking away from him the single biggest thing americans judge their vote by, the economy

it will only get stronger, this refrain, as these haters and scalawags give voice to, for them, the hope of this self fulfilling prophecy

if they can scare enough people into not buying, not hiring, not expanding, feeling poorer, this hoped for tide might hurt americans enough to turn their vote

Dude, are you for real? do you know that 9 of the top 10 developed Countries are "on the verge" of recession now? we are not, as of the Stats from the last quarter. but recession is backward viewing, you don't know if you are in one currently, until the stats tell you later. it is big business that is signaling recession. you are so scared of Democrats, that you think their chatter might CAUSE a recession??

[nevergaveitathought]

they hope for it and talk it up

listen to msnbc and/or bill maher

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

they hope for it and talk it up

listen to msnbc and/or bill maher

maybe so.. why doesn't Trump take measures to thwart a Recession? he relies on his appointed Fed chief to slash interest rates to bail out his policies. slams him in the media, because he won't slash rates to zero.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

the drumbeat has begun

the leftists and their rmedia have begun talking up recession

in the hopes of diminishing trump and taking away from him the single biggest thing americans judge their vote by, the economy

it will only get stronger, this refrain, as these haters and scalawags give voice to, for them, the hope of this self fulfilling prophecy

if they can scare enough people into not buying, not hiring, not expanding, feeling poorer, this hoped for tide might hurt americans enough to turn their vote

If he listens to them, those leftists and their media may just protect Donald Trump from his own worst enemy: Peter Navarro. That "propaganda arm of the Chinese Communist Party" (Navarro's words, not mine) known as the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board had this to say on Thursday:

The key to avoiding the worst is to restore a sense of policy calm and confidence. Stop the trade threats by tweet. Call a tariff truce with China, Europe and the rest of the world while negotiations resume with a goal of reaching a deal by the meeting of Pacific nations in November. Someone should tell Mr. Trump that incumbent Presidents who preside over recessions within two years of an election rarely get a second term.

As Chung Tran says above, Trump has it in his power to reduce the chances of a recession. If he ends the trade war, the probability of a recession before the election goes maybe from 40% to 20%. He should do that. The only president re-elected around the time of a recession was William McKinley.

[oeb11]

DPST's have been praying for a recession ever since Trump took office.
Warren was screaming last year about how "The trump economy was bad for America - we need Recession!"""
And they are dong all they can economically to try to precipitate a recession with their DPST locked in mind-Set predictors - such as Krugman.
The DPST lust for power and control is unquenchable.

[nevergaveitathought]

you might be right, you just might be right

trump's stated view isn't a political view though, he's more about do the right thing with china now rather than later . its hang the cost and deal with china now instead of kicking it down the road

but he did delay instituting some tariffs unitl December, ostensibly for the Christmas season, although it had a tinge of politics,

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by oeb11

DPST's have been praying for a recession ever since Trump took office.
Warren was screaming last year about how "The trump economy was bad for America - we need Recession!"""
And they are dong

I don't know what the Vietnamese measure of currency has to do with your statement?