Like I told SPEED voters with high enthusiasm cast ballots and those that aren't don't and THAT isn't in your man ol' Joe's favor.

[HedonistForever]

This will bring completely different dynamics from 2018 so I don't see a comparison as necessarily informative at this point and YES when the top spot on the ticket is running, it tends to bring out more people and the incumbent more often than not wins re-election.


With all the talked about enthusiasm on both sides, I think we may get a lower turn out than what we might other wise expect especially if every state like Florida adopts vote by mail. As simple as it sounds, I think many people will simply over look something they aren't use to but who the hell knows what November of 2020 is going to look like.

[oeb11]

The DPST's are pushing "vote by mail" to cover for their "ballot harvesting" agenda - legal in kalifornia.
the practice is illegal in most states because of the potential for ballot abuse - something the DPST use expertly and widely.
"Winning is the Only acceptable outcome! No matter the methods." Just like the National Socialists in 1930's Deutschland.

Socialism Uber Alles!!!

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Selzer & Co, was likely voters.
Ipsos was registered voters, as was Morning Consult.
A poll by Change Research, which has Biden +6, was likely voters.

So it's a mixed bag. Likely voters is better than registered voters which is better than all voters.

No I did not read all your links. Didn't have to. They all made the same statements one way or another. It goes back to my statement to OEB who criticized sources for stating Trump had mental problems without any medical proof. If you want to believe Biden has mental problems that should keep him from becoming POTUS, I have no problem with your decision.

I will bet you that, assuming Biden is the Democratic candidate, more people vote for him than for Trump. So I guess that all those voters have TDS. I doubt you will take this bet because your strength seems to be in feeble attempts to ridicule others while participating on a political forum yet unwilling to discuss political issues.

Hopefully this post wasn't off topic.

Your quote:

"I will bet you that, assuming Biden is the Democratic candidate, more people vote for him than for Trump"
I would SPEED...but you already said many times before..."i don't bet people on a hooker board...did that slip your superior mind??


Your quote:
Hopefully this post wasn't off topic

No it wasn't off topic, just that when the debates come it will be nice to see how ol' Joe performs.You say you didn't read any of the couple dozen links, did you watch and of the videos...they are all hard to decipher...I understand if it doesn't fit your narrative. You seem to think no matter how bad it is he won't lose any voters, especially the independents....SPEED they will decide the election. Again you flip flop and say 2016 debates mattered but not the 2020 debates.

The fact that ol' Joe can't keep a train of thought of more then a couple of sentences this will be a huge problem in the debate, and a mensa member like you doesn't think so?? I got to give it to you your blind faith is going to be in for a rude awakening. You need to give us your superior intellectual opinion after the debates and spin it as..." don't believe your lying eyes or ears".

What polices of bitten do you like since you're not voting for Trump because "I don't like his polices". Bitten policies would destroy this country, if not explain what polices of his you endorse. Try hard without giving away your "political leanings." You will vote for him no matter how poorly he performs, but the undecided voters...the ones who will decide the election won't the same myopic view you do.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Your quote:

"I will bet you that, assuming Biden is the Democratic candidate, more people vote for him than for Trump"
I would SPEED...but you already said many times before..."i don't bet people on a hooker board...did that slip your superior mind??


Your quote:
Hopefully this post wasn't off topic

No it wasn't off topic, just that when the debates come it will be nice to see how ol' Joe performs.You say you didn't read any of the couple dozen links, did you watch and of the videos...they are all hard to decipher...I understand if it doesn't fit your narrative. You seem to think no matter how bad it is he won't lose any voters, especially the independents....SPEED they will decide the election. Again you flip flop and say 2016 debates mattered but not the 2020 debates.

The fact that ol' Joe can't keep a train of thought of more then a couple of sentences this will be a huge problem in the debate, and a mensa member like you doesn't think so?? I got to give it to you your blind faith is going to be in for a rude awakening. You need to give us your superior intellectual opinion after the debates and spin it as..." don't believe your lying eyes or ears".

What polices of bitten do you like since you're not voting for Trump because "I don't like his polices". Bitten policies would destroy this country, if not explain what polices of his you endorse. Try hard without giving away your "political leanings." You will vote for him no matter how poorly he performs, but the undecided voters...the ones who will decide the election won't the same myopic view you do.

I don't bet money or anything tangible, such as agreeing to stay off the forum if I am incorrect. I am proposing a bet with nothing attached to it other than being right or wrong. Here are some things I am willing to bet on:

Trump will lose the popular vote by a larger vote margin than he did in 20126.

Trump will get less electoral votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Democrats will pick up seats in the Senate but not take control.
Right now, I think Democrats gain seats in Arizona and Colorado but lose Arizona. NC and Maine and Montana seats are also possible victories for the Democrats.

Republicans will pick up seats in the House but not take control.

Fairly simple issues on which to make an opinion. How aout it? A discussion on political issues.



What Biden policies do I support?

Fixing Obamacare rather than going for Medicare for All or doing nothing, which is what Trump is doing.

Moving away from Trump's immigration proposals on refugees and other immigrants.

Increase the capital gains rate. I support the lowering of the tax rate which was part of the 2017 tax package, but it is now too low.

Do not use tariffs to pressure countries.

Raise the minimum wage.

Rejoin the Paris Accord.

Here is a summary of Biden's position on issues. Very few I don't support.

https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...ues/joe-biden/

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

This will bring completely different dynamics from 2018 so I don't see a comparison as necessarily informative at this point and YES when the top spot on the ticket is running, it tends to bring out more people and the incumbent more often than not wins re-election.

With all the talked about enthusiasm on both sides, I think we may get a lower turn out than what we might other wise expect especially if every state like Florida adopts vote by mail. As simple as it sounds, I think many people will simply over look something they aren't use to but who the hell knows what November of 2020 is going to look like.

In 2 of the last 6 elections in which the incumbent POTUS was seeking reelection, he lost -- Carter and Bush. 33.3% is not insignificant. What was different about those 2 compared to the 4 who won reelection -- Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama? They had negative approval ratings at the time voters went to the polls. Today Trump has a negative approval rating. That may change in the next 7 months or Trump could become the first POTUS to win reelection with a negative approval rating.

60% is about normal turnout for a presidential election. I think the 2020 turnout will be higher, maybe hitting 65%.

"AMERICAN VOTERS ARE projected to turn out at the polls next year in numbers not seen in a century or more in U.S. politics, experts predict, sending both major political parties into overdrive as they seek to win voter support and get them to fill out a ballot.

Turnout in 2018 was the highest it had been for a midterm election since 1914, says University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald, a nationally recognized elections expert who maintains the voter data site United States Election Project. Next year, he predicts, 65%-66% of eligible voters will turn out, the highest since 1908, when turnout was 65.7%. The GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies as well as the progressive voter data group Catalyst are also projecting record or near-record turnout."

https://www.usnews.com/news/election...urnout-in-2020

"Brace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami

Even with a surge in overall participation, white working-class voters could still remain decisive in the 2020 election.

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach the highest levels in decades—if not the highest in the past century—with a surge of new voters potentially producing the most diverse electorate in American history."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...eaking/591607/

We all know Trump supporters will be there on election day. We know that those who do not support Trump will be there on election day. That alone assures a high voter turnout. If voters remain as motivated in November 2020 as they were in 2018, even in a non-presidential year, the turnout will be fantastic. But, as you stated, a vote-by-mail election could have a dramatic impact on the results. I certainly hope that is not the case.

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I don't bet money or anything tangible, such as agreeing to stay off the forum if I am incorrect. I am proposing a bet with nothing attached to it other than being right or wrong. Here are some things I am willing to bet on:

Trump will lose the popular vote by a larger vote margin than he did in 20126.

Trump will get less electoral votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Democrats will pick up seats in the Senate but not take control.
Right now, I think Democrats gain seats in Arizona and Colorado but lose Arizona. NC and Maine and Montana seats are also possible victories for the Democrats.

Republicans will pick up seats in the House but not take control.

Fairly simple issues on which to make an opinion. How aout it? A discussion on political issues.



What Biden policies do I support?

Fixing Obamacare rather than going for Medicare for All or doing nothing, which is what Trump is doing.

Moving away from Trump's immigration proposals on refugees and other immigrants.

Increase the capital gains rate. I support the lowering of the tax rate which was part of the 2017 tax package, but it is now too low.

Do not use tariffs to pressure countries.

Raise the minimum wage.

Rejoin the Paris Accord.

Here is a summary of Biden's position on issues. Very few I don't support.

https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...ues/joe-biden/

Trump proposing medicare for all...that is HORSESHIT.

Donald Trump: Democrats 'Medicare for All' plan will demolish promises to seniors

The Democrats want to outlaw private health care plans, taking away freedom to choose plans while letting anyone cross our border. We must win this.

Throughout the year, we have seen Democrats across the country uniting around a new legislative proposal that would end Medicare as we know it and take away benefits that seniors have paid for their entire lives.
Dishonestly called “Medicare for All,” the Democratic proposal would establish a government-run, single-payer health care system that eliminates all private and employer-based health care plans and would cost an astonishing $32.6 trillion during its first 10 years.
As a candidate, I promised that we would protect coverage for patients with pre-existing conditions and create new health care insurance options that would lower premiums. I have kept that promise, and we are now seeing health insurance premiums coming down.
STANDARDS EDITOR:Medicare op-ed and all the reaction show democracy in action
Related:Factcheck.org has looked into statements made in this column.
I also made a solemn promise to our great seniors to protect Medicare. That is why I am fighting so hard against the Democrats' plan that would eviscerate Medicare. Democrats have already harmed seniors by slashing Medicare by more than $800 billion over 10 years to pay for Obamacare. Likewise, Democrats would gut Medicare with their planned government takeover of American health care.
The Democrats' plan threatens America's seniors

The Democrats' plan means that after a life of hard work and sacrifice, seniors would no longer be able to depend on the benefits they were promised. By eliminating Medicare as a program for seniors, and outlawing the ability of Americans to enroll in private and employer-based plans, the Democratic plan would inevitably lead to the massive rationing of health care. Doctors and hospitals would be put out of business. Seniors would lose access to their favorite doctors. There would be long wait lines for appointments and procedures. Previously covered care would effectively be denied.

In practice, the Democratic Party’s so-called Medicare for All would really be Medicare for None. Under the Democrats' plan, today’s Medicare would be forced to die.
The Democrats' plan also would mean the end of choice for seniors over their own health care decisions. Instead, Democrats would give total power and control over seniors’ health care decisions to the bureaucrats in Washington, D.C


You did tout you medicare SPEED, in your mind why wouldn't it be good for everyone??

Thanks for telling us your political leaning...that we already knew.
You're not a conservative in anyway all the policies you profess to support are from the libtard ideology and don't do anything but wreck the economy.
You can't explain how any of his polices would have a positive effect on the economy.
Trumps polices had the economy in the best shape it had been in many years, but those are polices you don't support...time to spin SPEED!!

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Trump proposing medicare for all...that is HORSESHIT.

That's not what Speed said or even alluded to.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Trump proposing medicare for all...that is HORSESHIT.

You did tout you medicare SPEED, in your mind why wouldn't it be good for everyone??

Thanks for telling us your political leaning...that we already knew.
You're not a conservative in anyway all the policies you profess to support are from the libtard ideology and don't do anything but wreck the economy.
You can't explain how any of his polices would have a positive effect on the economy.
Trumps polices had the economy in the best shape it had been in many years, but those are polices you don't support...time to spin SPEED!!

I was in no way stating that Trump was supporting Medicare for All. The statement was a reference to Sanders. Trump is proposing nothing.

Medicare is fantastic. I pay under $100 a month for Medicare and Medicare Advantage and get almost free medical care. I would support Medicare for All if it was proven to be economically feasible.

I've been through my opinion of Trump's economy. Good for those at the upper end of the income scale. Much less positive for those at the middle and low end of the income scale.

And you continue to avoid discussion of political issues. You ask questions and make unfounded accusations but are either unwilling or unable to discuss politics at ground level. I have twice proposed a gentleman's bet with you but you are obviously unable to take a stand.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

That's not what Speed said or even alluded to.

Thank you.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Bump. System problems caused responses to be missed.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I have twice proposed a gentleman's bet with you but you are obviously unable to take a stand.

You don't want to do that. From experience he'll only enter into a bet if it's heavily weighted in his favor and then when you don't take it make it out to be a huge deal.

As to the premise of this thread, you've got just as much enthusiasm among Democrats for voting Trump out as you've got among Republicans for re-electing him. Joe Biden isn't as divisive a candidate as Hillary Clinton. You had people like Chung Tran voting for Trump because he hated Hillary. This time around you'll see that happening in reverse - Democrats who aren't excited about Biden but will show up to the polls to vote against Trump. You've already said as much.

The new coronavirus is giving Trump a huge opportunity. He was bungling it early on but is doing better now. If people view this as a wartime situation instead of focusing on the economy, that improves Trump's chances, if he can just filter what comes out of his mouth. And he's doing a better job of that now than he was.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Increase the capital gains rate. I support the lowering of the tax rate which was part of the 2017 tax package, but it is now too low.

It was 23.8% before the 2017 tax package and 23.8% after, for assets held over one year. The rate on short term gains did drop from 43.4% to 40.8%.

There are strong arguments for the lower tax on long term gains. Eliminate it and people will be paying tax on "gains" at 40%+ rates that are really losses after you factor in inflation. And you're going to encourage people to hold onto assets until they die, to avoid paying the 40%+ tax. This means the government potentially gets less revenue and you're making the economy less efficient. Everyone loses.

Investment should flow to areas where it gets the best returns, the more dynamic parts of the economy, and a higher capital gains tax discourages that, because people hold onto assets instead of selling and reinvesting.