Quote:
Originally Posted by lustylad
Agree manufacturing jobs are up nicely under Trump - by almost half a million! Not sure you can link that directly or entirely to his China trade negotiations. You would need to look at where those jobs occurred to see how many are the result of new orders from customers who used to source from China and switched back to domestic suppliers.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckde.../#79767c625635 |
From the Forbes article it sounds like Obama et al were so focused on growing government that there weren't any people left over to work in manufacturing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grean
I would just imagine having suddenly to pay more than a quarter on every dollar of imports is going to reduce the demand a good bit. The above factors you listed have been present before the tariff and we didn't see any significant drop in imports from China.
I'm the last one to link correlation with cause but.....
On the other hand, Chinas overall exports across the globe are down and US tariffs didn't cause all that.
China continues to devaluate it's currency however. Perhaps other countries are beginning to take measures other than tariffs to combat that as well.
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Costs in the manufacturing heartland of southeastern China are getting out of control. Inflation in labor costs, rents and land is very high. Labor turnover for unskilled labor is unreal, two times per year is not uncommon. For some time before Trump, Chinese companies were moving production to places like Vietnam. Three years ago, before Trump was elected, I spoke with an executive of a company which owned a factory in China. They were going to transport it, lock, stock and barrel, to Cambodia. Then they were going to sell the land in China to property developers and make a bundle. And he said a number of other manufacturers were doing the same.
Tariffs were a consideration long before Trump. China slowed exports of garments way down because of high tariffs imposed by the USA and Western Europe. They continue to manufacture the fibers, yarns and fabrics, then export them to places like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka which don't incur high duties on finished garments.
While true in the past, China isn't devaluing its currency any more, that's bull shit spread by the trade hawks. They've been doing more of the opposite in recent years, trying to keep the value of the currency up, as capital flight drug down the value of the Renminbi.
It's much better to let free markets take care of this instead of attacking the problem with tariffs. The reason you're seeing more manufacturing jobs in the USA is because we're more competitive. Yes, Trump's change in corporate tax rates and deregulation is playing a big part in this. The USA is now more competitive with China and other countries. China doesn't have the huge cost advantages it did before. Tariffs have done diddly squat. Trump's worldwide tariff strategy makes no sense, and obsessing on the trade deficit between China and the USA makes no sense.
