Tariff Man and his tariff plan cause market plunges

[Green_Mountain]

Well damn. Look at this synopsis from Jerome Powell today.

Tariffs not a big factor in consumer inflation:
- Powell reiterated the Fed's view that tariffs are expected to cause only a temporary lift in inflation, rather than a persistent or major driver. Overall inflationary effects from tariffs have been "quite modest" and less severe than forecasted.

Tariff revenue surging:
- Powell explicitly stated that the U.S. government is collecting a "good amount of revenue" from the tariffs on imports, reflecting a surge in collections as the policies take effect.

Consumers not absorbing much of the costs:
- He explained that importers and retailers have absorbed much of the tariff costs themselves, rather than passing them on to consumers. "It's retailers and it's importers, and they're not passing along to consumers that much of the cost," Powell said, emphasizing that this has limited the passthrough to everyday prices.

These comments represent a notable shift from earlier Fed projections (e.g., from April and August 2025), where Powell and colleagues had warned of potentially larger inflationary risks from tariffs. Today's assessment, based on incoming data, suggests the passthrough has been lower than expected, validating aspects of the Trump administration's trade policy that critics had dismissed as inflationary.

[HDGristle]

I mean, that's to be expected between front-loaded inventory winding down and phased in rates vs import schedules.

Tariffs don't just impact today if I set them today. They're going to impact 4 months from now when that container ship arrives. Until then you have a blend of pre-tantrum day rate and post-trantrum day rates and then delayed negotiation rates.

We've only started to see that impact. This isn't a single scalpel blade doing one cut. It's going to be many, many cuts we'll get to experience over quite a bit of time.

The companies that have said they won't be able to or will not eat the tariffs long-term have already signaled when to start expecting to see prices go up if you've paid attention

[Green_Mountain]

As I said 20 pages ago tariffs can be a one-time spike to inflation, assuming additional tariffs on the same goods aren’t implemented. There were lots of dissenting views but Powell just validated that.

So Powell is wrong in what he said today? “Powell reiterated the Fed's view that tariffs are expected to cause only a temporary lift in inflation, rather than a persistent or major driver.”

Also, it was recently said a couple weeks ago that up inflation was due to tariffs but the next down inflation report (CPI vs PPI) was due to softening demand.

So which is it?

[oldman2525]

I guess this will be the cry in Nov and dec also lol. Beware it's coming, it takes time. Market will.crash. inflation will skyrocket. Tariffs bad

[Green_Mountain]

Agree oldman.

Tariffs are so bad that Biden left them mostly intact from Trump 45.

Tariffs are so bad pretty much every company has tariffed US goods for decades. I guess they want their economy to tank, that’s the liberal logic.

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by Green_Mountain

As I said 20 pages ago tariffs can be a one-time spike to inflation, assuming additional tariffs on the same goods aren’t implemented. There were lots of dissenting views but Powell just validated that.

So Powell is wrong in what he said today? “Powell reiterated the Fed's view that tariffs are expected to cause only a temporary lift in inflation, rather than a persistent or major driver.”

Also, it was recently said a couple weeks ago that up inflation was due to tariffs but the next down inflation report (CPI vs PPI) was due to softening demand.

So which is it?

It's a little bit of everything. I'm not interested in your gotcha equation because mine is multi-variable.

One of those is time

You do need to account for where things end with China and Canada and Mexico. Those remain outstanding. If they're not as bad as they were supposed to be, that will be good for all of us.

And don't forget the appeal.

Remember, I didn't say all tariffs were bad. Folks have been Kimmeled for those kinds of misrepresentations