Place your bets here - Electoral College and Senate

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

OK, there will be no actual money on the line. But here's your chance to prove you're the best prognosticator in the eccie political forum.

Question 1: After the elections this year have all been decided, how many Senators will be Democrats and how many will be Republicans?

Question 2: How many electoral votes will Trump win? And how many will Biden win?

Rules: Only entries submitted before midnight, Sunday, October 11 will be accepted. You may not change your estimate after submission. Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two independent Senators who caucus with Democrats, will be counted as Democrats. There will be one winner for the Senate question and one winner for the Electoral College question. Your predictions for Democratic and Republican Senators should total 100. And your prediction for number of electoral votes received by Trump plus electoral votes received by Biden should total 538. In the event of a tie, the winners will share the glory.

My entry -

Question 1: 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats

Question 2: 203 electoral votes for Trump and 335 electoral votes for Biden.

For the president election, I think Biden will flip four states that Trump won against HRC. Biden will flip Mich, Penn, Wisc and Florida. Biden leads Trump by 5.5 points or more in Mich, Penn and Wisc. Trump will not be able to make that up in three weeks.

My entry -

Question 1: 48 Republicans and 52 Democrats

Question 2: 231 electoral votes for Trump and 307 electoral for Biden

Biden/Harris win, Trump/Pence go home.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Jam3768

That's weak

What's weak is not explaining what you meant so that we might debate with a clear understanding of what we are talking about.


Who is he and what is he saying? I'm always happy to defend what I think. I can't debate if I don't know what the hell you are talking about.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Jam3768

That's weak

Not as weak as your trying to excuse your sloppy grammar/spelling by saying other posters are just as bad.

(Which reminds me - you misspelled "deity" in another thread. It's an exception to the rule "i before e, except after c".)

[texassapper]

Trump 280 electors
Senate Republicans pick up one seat.

[Munchmasterman]

Anybody else notice the distinct lack of trumpys?
Too bad. It would be fun to see what spin they have.

Plus, is it as obvious as it looks to to me that mostly only trumpys talking "the end of the world" shit?
We know ob1 plans on dying. Any other notables plan on that?

This just in. They apparently had a sleep over and all just woke up.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by texassapper

Trump 280 electors
Senate Republicans pick up one seat.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Not as weak as your trying to excuse your sloppy grammar/spelling by saying other posters are just as bad.

(Which reminds me - you misspelled "deity" in another thread. It's an exception to the rule "i before e, except after c".)

Please tell me what you think will happen as regards to the OP questions?

I bet it is off moreso than your Trump GDP predictions!

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by WTF

Please tell me what you think will happen as regards to the OP questions?

I bet it is off moreso than your Trump GDP predictions!

Welcome back WTF. You had a long vacation. Trump talked about 4,5 or even 6% GDP growth after cutting corporate taxes. But the best Trump could do was sniff 3.0%

With Trump hitting 3.0% is setting a record, with Obama hitting 3.1% it's considered under performing.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Welcome back WTF. You had a long vacation. Trump talked about 4,5 or even 6% GDP growth after cutting corporate taxes. But the best Trump could do was sniff 3.0%

With Trump hitting 3.0% is setting a record, with Obama hitting 3.1% it's considered under performing.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

Adav8s28, Given we were recovering from a deep recession, GDP growth during Obama's terms should have been better than it was. The "Obama recovery" was one of the weakest in history. See this -- it's from a site that has a bias towards Trump, but the content looks reasonable,

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...r-3-gdp-growth

You'll see the headline says Obama never had a year of 3% GDP growth. Since this disagreed with your link, I checked the World Bank web site and indeed according to them GDP growth never got to 3%. (I tried the St. Louis Fed site first but didn't have any luck)

My belief, and yours, is that Trump will be a one term president, in which case average annual GDP growth under Trump will be less than under Obama, because of COVID. I'd argue so what, who's president is only a small part of what effects economic growth. There's the business cycle, the Fed, Congress, technology, previous presidents and previous Congresses, etc.

However, Trump, and the Republican Congress during his first two years, did pursue policies that IMO demonstrably helped the economy, and that by 2019 had resulted in a significant improvement in the prosperity of the middle class and the poor. I posted about that here,

https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?t=2739525

Covid ended it for the time being, and Democratic tax policies and re-regulation will probably put a nail in the coffin after the election.

Btw, I agree about the 4.5% to 6% GDP growth rates -- he just can't help himself, he has to pull stuff out of the air that everyone knows is bull shit.

[Tsmokies]

Twit head in chief fucked up the safety of all real Americans and fucked up the Obama economy. It's not r o c k e t science. We still have a very few ignorant racist clueless redneck supporters on here 24/7 that are fun to fk with though

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I don't understand people who say ''I don't like either, so I'm not voting''. I get that most people, even registered voters, say that every 4 years. Which means 27% or so of Adults elect the President.

Contrast that with much of the World, where people wait 8-10 hours to vote, or would give ''anything'', if they had a right to vote... The choice is clear between Biden and Trump, surely the choice of one would motivate you enough to vote.

But Americans are jaded.

Funny that Republicans fight like Hell to limit voting, but a majority of Americans gladly sit out the contest.

Chung Tran, You posted this in Lucas' Dummy thread. It feels a little weird posting there knowing it's some kind of experiment to see how many posts he can elicit by annoying people with TES (Trump Enlightenment Syndrome.) So I'm moving it over here.

I'm going to vote. If I don't like the candidates for a particular office or don't know much about them then I don't vote for anyone, and move on to the next office.

That won't be the case for the office of president this year. There's no way I'm going to cast my vote for either of the major party candidates. They don't deserve it. But Jo Jorgensen, a third party candidate, does.

Now, if you could go back to 2016 and you could vote again, what would you do? You disliked both candidates so you picked who you figured was the lesser of two evils. If yours had been the deciding vote in the election, if your vote had actually made THE difference, you'd be kicking yourself right now.

I am looking forward to voting for Cornyn.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

republicans hold the senate. they'll gain 1 or 2 more seats.

House will stay democrat, but they will loose at least 10 seats. the impeachment stunt will hurt them.

President Trump wins electoral college, but loses the popular vote (heavily tilted in California and New York, expect those states to have 80% vote against trump.)

Trump - 290 - loses popular vote
biden - 248 - wins popular vote

NY & CA = 80% for biden.

incidentally, 269 - 269 is possible. I got it on the first try. lol.

House (218 for majority)
Dem - 222
Rep - 207
Ind - 2

Senate (51 for majority)
Rep - 54.5
Dem - 43.5
Ind - 2

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Chung Tran, You posted this in Lucas' Dummy thread. It feels a little weird posting there knowing it's some kind of experiment to see how many posts he can elicit by annoying people with TES (Trump Enlightenment Syndrome.) So I'm moving it over here.

I'm going to vote. If I don't like the candidates for a particular office or don't know much about them then I don't vote for anyone, and move on to the next office.

That won't be the case for the office of president this year. There's no way I'm going to cast my vote for either of the major party candidates. They don't deserve it. But Jo Jorgensen, a third party candidate, does.

Now, if you could go back to 2016 and you could vote again, what would you do? You disliked both candidates so you picked who you figured was the lesser of two evils. If yours had been the deciding vote in the election, if your vote had actually made THE difference, you'd be kicking yourself right now.

I am looking forward to voting for Cornyn.

If you vote for anyone other than one of the two party nominations, you ARE voting for the current office holder.

[Tiny]

New Update:

Presidency -

adav8s28: Biden wins with 307 electoral votes
Chung Tran: Biden wins with 322 electoral votes
Dilbert: Trump wins with 290 electoral votes
Munchmasterman: Biden wins with 318 electoral votes
SpeedRacer: Biden wins with 335 electoral votes
texassapper: Trump wins with 280 electoral votes
Tiny: Biden wins with 335 electoral votes
Tsmokies: Biden wins with 300 electoral votes
WTF: Biden wins with 291 electoral votes

Senate -

adav8s28: 48 Republicans and 52 Democrats
Chung Tran: 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats
Dilbert: 54.5 Republicans and 43.5 Democrats
HedonistForever: 48.5 Republicans and 51.5 Democrats
Jackie S.: 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats
Munchmasterman: 48 Republicans and 52 Democrats
SpeedRacer: 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats
texassapper: 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats
Tiny: 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats
Tsmokies: 45 Republicans and 55 Democrats
WTF: 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats[/QUOTE]

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Tiny

New Update:

Presidency -
Pro trump
Dilbert: Trump wins with 290 electoral votes
texassapper: Trump wins with 280 electoral votes

pro biden
adav8s28: Biden wins with 307 electoral votes
Chung Tran: Biden wins with 322 electoral votes
Munchmasterman: Biden wins with 318 electoral votes
SpeedRacer: Biden wins with 335 electoral votes
Tiny: Biden wins with 335 electoral votes
Tsmokies: Biden wins with 300 electoral votes
WTF: Biden wins with 291 electoral votes

Senate -
Pro trump
Dilbert: 54.5 Republicans and 43.5 Democrats and 2 Independents
HedonistForever: 48.5 Republicans and 51.5 Democrats (49.5 D and 2 Ind)
Jackie S.: 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats (45 D and 2 Ind)
texassapper: 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats (45 D and 2 Ind)

pro biden
adav8s28: 48 Republicans and 52 Democrats (50 D and 2 Ind)
Chung Tran: 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats (49 D and 2 Ind)
Munchmasterman: 48 Republicans and 52 Democrats (50 D and 2 Ind)
SpeedRacer: 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats (48 D and 2 Ind)
Tiny: 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats (49 D and 2 Ind)
Tsmokies: 45 Republicans and 55 Democrats (53 D and 2 Ind)
WTF: 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats (48 D and 2 Ind)

does the pro camp look right?

ok guys, you need to fix your senate results.

2 independents are not running this year, they will in 2024. so the total is 98 senate seats instead of 100. btw, 2 of the independents caucus with the democrats.