November 5, 2019 Elections

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I've asked you several times. You are expecting a Trump landslide in 2020, which means about 375 electoral votes. He won 306 EVs in 2016. Which states do you predict he will win to add 69 EVs to his total?

Not one person on this forum who predicts a Trump landslide can answer that question. Can you?

Why don't you ask only the people who predicted a "landslide". I don't know any.

Another thing overlooked by the media in Kentucky, 175,000 people were added back to the voter rolls four weeks before the election. People who were removed for irregularities, moving out of state, and non citizens who were put on the rolls automatically when they got a driver's license. Funny, they were all registered as democrats.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Why don't you ask only the people who predicted a "landslide". I don't know any.

Another thing overlooked by the media in Kentucky, 175,000 people were added back to the voter rolls four weeks before the election. People who were removed for irregularities, moving out of state, and non citizens who were put on the rolls automatically when they got a driver's license. Funny, they were all registered as democrats.

There have been at least 2 I can quickly think of -- Austin Ellen and BB. I'm not sure if Ellen has backed off her prediction of a landslide (375 EVs). BB has but he is still not willing or is unable to name states that will go from blue to red. Simple question. One you answered a long time ago if I remember correctly.

Yes, a judge ordered 175,000 people put back on the voting rolls in Kentucky after the State Board of Elections had them removed. These voters had been put on an "inactive" list by the Republican controlled board. Fair or unfair? I don't know enough details about why the 175,000 were removed other than your input. Obviously the judge disagrees with you.

An asterisk was to be placed next to the names of the 175,000 so that if and when they came in to cast their ballots. poll workers would confirm their addresses. Sounds fair to me.

[Austin Ellen]

Yep. I'm going with the Moody's forecast and saying he is going to win by a greater margin in 2020. I truely believe this to be true. Of course, I said Trump would win the election back in 2015 and no one wanted to believe me. I can't believe it's almost 5 years later. Damn, that went fast!!!

https://www.newsweek.com/historicall...n-2020-1465494

[bb1961]

However large a margin Trump wins by and it will be bigger than in 2016. SPEED will have a nonsensical analysis as always and explain away why the election went the way it did.
When self awareness is difficult to grasp delusional answers are even more absurd.

Although it is still a year from now and no matter how great the economy and the complete implosion of the Democraps he still believes that the vast majority of voters will endorse this nonsense...he is yet to come to grips that a great amount of people now distrust the left and there economy destroying policies which he at times admits are not doable.

In the next six months all the shit that is coming down on the democraps because of there complete TDS will ensure a major Trump victory...how big only time will tell.

Six months from now SPEED get back to me and I have some links to the election outlook for you to debunk an spin as only the greatest spin masters on the left can.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

However large a margin Trump wins by and it will be bigger than in 2016. SPEED will have a nonsensical analysis as always and explain away why the election went the way it did.
When self awareness is difficult to grasp delusional answers are even more absurd.

Although it is still a year from now and no matter how great the economy and the complete implosion of the Democraps he still believes that the vast majority of voters will endorse this nonsense...he is yet to come to grips that a great amount of people now distrust the left and there economy destroying policies which he at times admits are not doable.

In the next six months all the shit that is coming down on the democraps because of there complete TDS will ensure a major Trump victory...how big only time will tell.

Six months from now SPEED get back to me and I have some links to the election outlook for you to debunk an spin as only the greatest spin masters on the left can.

So you are no longer predicting a Trump landslide. Only a Trump victory with more electoral votes than 2016. Yet you can't tell me what additional states Trump will win that he lost in 2016. Ellen did that. Bambino did that. Barleycorn did that.

Yes, the majority of voters will vote for the Democratic candidate in my opinion. Just like 2016. My opinion as of right now is Trump will get less EVs in 2020 than he did in 2016.

You believe that this country is becoming more conservative. Currently 2 of the 4 most populous states are solid Democratic -- California and NY. One of the others, Florida, is unpredictable and can't be counted on to vote for any specific party. The 4th, Texas, has become more blue in recent years -- in 2012 Romney won the popular vote in Texas by 16%. In 2016 Trump won the popular vote by 9%. In 2018 midterms, Ted Cruz the incumbent held his seat by winning by 2.6% and 2 House seats went from red to blue, none from blue to red. My prediction right now is Trump wins Texas in 2020 by less than 5%.

If either Florida or Texas become blue states it will be difficult for a Republican to win a presidential election. If it is Texas, the Democratic candidate will have 122 electoral votes from just 3 states, as electoral votes are currently allocated. That total represents 45% of the needed 270. I should also mention that Illinois, with 20 EVs is solid Democratic.

I am not saying whether or not this is good or bad, just pointing it out.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Yep. I'm going with the Moody's forecast and saying he is going to win by a greater margin in 2020. I truely believe this to be true. Of course, I said Trump would win the election back in 2015 and no one wanted to believe me. I can't believe it's almost 5 years later. Damn, that went fast!!!

https://www.newsweek.com/historicall...n-2020-1465494

At least you admit to Trump not winning a landslide victory any more.

Yes, if you use a model based solely on economics, Trump comes out ahead. The model was wrong in 2016 when it predicted a Clinton victory. On the other hand, if you use the model based on approval ratings, which has never been wrong, Trump loses.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

At least you admit to Trump not winning a landslide victory any more.

Yes, if you use a model based solely on economics, Trump comes out ahead. The model was wrong in 2016 when it predicted a Clinton victory. On the other hand, if you use the model based on approval ratings, which has never been wrong, Trump loses.

Obama’s approval rating was the same as Trumps. He won.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

At least you admit to Trump not winning a landslide victory any more.

Yes, if you use a model based solely on economics, Trump comes out ahead. The model was wrong in 2016 when it predicted a Clinton victory. On the other hand, if you use the model based on approval ratings, which has never been wrong, Trump loses.

I'd be interested in seeing that model based on approval ratings of which you speak. Is it as weak as just predicting based on whether the current POTUS is above or below water in approval on election day and who does it come from?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

Obama’s approval rating was the same as Trumps. He won.

Untrue. On day 1026 of their respective time in office, Trump's approval rating is 41.4%. Obama's was at 44.4%. They were tied a couple of months ago.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

On election day 2012, Obama had a positive approval rating. According to Rasmussen. Very little chance Trump's approval rating will be positive by election day 2020.

"Obama's Approval Rating Is Soaring At Exactly The Right Time"

https://www.businessinsider.com/obam...gallup-2012-11

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Untrue. On day 1026 of their respective time in office, Trump's approval rating is 41.4%. Obama's was at 44.4%. They were tied a couple of months ago.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

On election day 2012, Obama had a positive approval rating. According to Rasmussen. Very little chance Trump's approval rating will be positive by election day 2020.

"Obama's Approval Rating Is Soaring At Exactly The Right Time"

https://www.businessinsider.com/obam...gallup-2012-11

So based on the usual 3-5% margin of error on any given poll, essentially tied and both still underwater.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I'd be interested in seeing that model based on approval ratings of which you speak. Is it as weak as just predicting based on whether the current POTUS is above or below water in approval on election day and who does it come from?

It is not an actual model like the one cited by Moody but is based on a summary of polls from ALL polling companies. Sources are FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. All 3 sources use input to determine an outcome. Obviously people are prone to believing the source that favors their candidate.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

It is not an actual model like the one cited by Moody but is based on a summary of polls from ALL polling companies. Sources are FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. All 3 sources use input to determine an outcome. Obviously people are prone to believing the source that favors their candidate.

A summary of the methodology at least?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

So based on the usual 3-5% margin of error on any given poll, essentially tied and both still underwater.

Depending on which side you add or subtract the 3-5%. If you subtract it from Obama, they are tied. If you add it to Obama, Obama comes out ahead by a larger margin and has an even larger positive approval rating.

Obama at the time of election in 2012 was at 50%. Trump is currently at 41.4% or 43.7% depending on which of the 2 sources one uses. Outside the margin of error. Can Trump, between today and election day 2020, raise his approval rating to within the margin of error? Doubtful based on how stable it has been since he took office.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Depending on which side you add or subtract the 3-5%. If you subtract it from Obama, they are tied. If you add it to Obama, Obama comes out ahead by a larger margin and has an even larger positive approval rating.

Obama at the time of election in 2012 was at 50%. Trump is currently at 41.4% or 43.7% depending on which of the 2 sources one uses. Outside the margin of error. Can Trump, between today and election day 2020, raise his approval rating to within the margin of error? Doubtful based on how stable it has been since he took office.

So we just went full circle as to what that single metric of approval rating means in the scheme of things. Does it matter what the opponents metrics are in the same arena at time of election?

Other much more researched and tracked statistics are in place leaning toward a Trump victory at this stage.

But as we keep discussing, it's way too early to prognosticate with any accuracy.

Many people at this point in 2011 didn't think Obama would pull up his approval by the election. He averaged underwater for his whole two terms, worse even than GW in the end.

It's certainly yet to be seen where numbers land a year from now.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

A summary of the methodology at least?

The approval ratings are based on polls. The same methodology has been used since approval ratings began during the Truman administration.

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/...ked-questions/

Here are examples of questions used on certain surveys:

https://www.wufoo.com/gallery/templa...tial-approval/