Israel Bombs Iranian Nuclear Sites!

[Unique_Carpenter]

Geeze guys

Mideast politics is bluff poker at the real world level. Get over it.
As soon as Iran mentioned buying more centrifuges in late November, it was just a bit of time for ....

However, 6 months??? I'm wondering why the Israeli strikes didn't happen earlier.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

As soon as Iran mentioned buying more centrifuges in late November, it was just a bit of time for ....

However, 6 months??? I'm wondering why the Israeli strikes didn't happen earlier.

Just buying more centrifuges is not the real concern. The real concern is being able to carry out the enrichment process over time. Remember the mixture of Uranium isotopes taken from the ground is like 98% U-238 to 2% U-235. So, you got to have thousands of Centrifuges running 24/7 for long periods of time to carry out the enrichment process. To get the concentration of U-235 up to 90% from 2% is not an overnight process.

Bengy did not strike earlier because the threat was not there with Obama's nuke deal in place (all the high speed centrifuges were turned off and under constant monitoring 24/7) until Trump cancelled the deal in 2018. Iran did not have enough U-235 to make an Atomic bomb between 2015 - 2024).


From the enrichment section of the Nuke deal framework link.

According to details of the deal published by the US government, Iran's uranium stockpile will be reduced by 98% to 300 kg (660 lbs) for 15 years. The level of enrichment must also remain at 3.67%. Iran will retain no more than 6,104 out of almost 20,000 centrifuges it possesses. There are two uranium enrichment facilities in Iran—Natanz and Fordo. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed on 14 July, the Natanz facility will be limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges for 10 years. At Fordo, no enrichment will be permitted for 15 years, and the underground facility will be converted into a nuclear, physics and technology centre. 1,044 centrifuges at the site will produce radioisotopes for use in medicine, agriculture, industry and science.[16][5] This level of enrichment, 3.67%, would be enough just for peaceful and civil use to power parts of country and therefore is not sufficient for building a nuclear bomb.[17]


Iran is not getting an Atomic Bomb if the above is enforced. The enforcement of this stopped in 2018 when Trump cancelled the deal.
I am sure that if the New Yorker knew that Iran was getting close, Bengy N and his staff would have similar intelligence.

https://www.britannica.com/science/uranium-235

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/fil...%20Section.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_n...deal_framework

[Unique_Carpenter]

ad,
The magic word is "centrifuges" and those are mentioned twice in your post.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Just buying more centrifuges is not the real concern. The real concern is being able to carry out the enrichment process over time. Remember the mixture of Uranium isotopes taken from the ground is like 98% U-238 to 2% U-235. So, you got to have thousands of Centrifuges running 24/7 for long periods of time to carry out the enrichment process. To get the concentration of U-235 up to 90% from 2% is not an overnight process.

Bengy did not strike earlier because the threat was not there with Obama's nuke deal in place (all the high speed centrifuges were turned off and under constant monitoring 24/7) until Trump cancelled the deal in 2018. Iran did not have enough U-235 to make an Atomic bomb between 2015 - 2024).


From the enrichment section of the Nuke deal framework link.

According to details of the deal published by the US government, Iran's uranium stockpile will be reduced by 98% to 300 kg (660 lbs) for 15 years. The level of enrichment must also remain at 3.67%. Iran will retain no more than 6,104 out of almost 20,000 centrifuges it possesses. There are two uranium enrichment facilities in Iran—Natanz and Fordo. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed on 14 July, the Natanz facility will be limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges for 10 years. At Fordo, no enrichment will be permitted for 15 years, and the underground facility will be converted into a nuclear, physics and technology centre. 1,044 centrifuges at the site will produce radioisotopes for use in medicine, agriculture, industry and science.[16][5] This level of enrichment, 3.67%, would be enough just for peaceful and civil use to power parts of country and therefore is not sufficient for building a nuclear bomb.[17]


Iran is not getting an Atomic Bomb if the above is enforced. The enforcement of this stopped in 2018 when Trump cancelled the deal.
I am sure that if the New Yorker knew that Iran was getting close, Bengy N and his staff would have similar intelligence.

https://www.britannica.com/science/uranium-235

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/fil...%20Section.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_n...deal_framework

Good series of posts and links on what's involved in developing a nuclear weapon and safeguards to hopefully assure compliance with the treaty, thanks adav8s28. I think your last statement is key, that if Iran were getting close, Israeli and U.S. intelligence would know.

The belief among many was that the treaty bought time, and some day there would be regime change in Iran. That hasn't happened.

While I believe the Iranians and their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon have caused immense destruction, pain and suffering, Israel under Netanyahu is not exactly a goody two shoes either. It imposed a system of apartheid and subjugation on Palestinians.

The USA funnels about $4 billion a year towards Israel. Israel's GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power, is $56,000 according to the IMF. That's higher than Japan or New Zealand and about the same as Spain's. Furthermore, Israel's total GDP is $531 billion. So U.S. aid is less than 1% of Israeli GDP. I don't understand why we're dipping in our pockets and paying that. Or why the USA is joined at the hip to Israel.

Furthermore, now that the USA is a net exporter of oil and petroleum products, I'm not sure why the USA still views the Middle East as absolutely vital to its security.

This is a long winded way of saying I'm not sure that the Iranians' proxy warfare via Hamas, Hezbollah, etc., justified the USA getting out of the Obama administration's nuclear treaty. Especially when Witkoff earlier on was talking to Iran about a new treaty that would allow continued enrichment of uranium.

But again, the end result may be better than if we'd stayed in. We'll have to see how things play out. Nobody should want Iran to end up with nuclear weapons, even allies like Russia which are in reach of Iran's medium range ballistic missiles.

[Salty Again]

... Good post there, Tiny. ... Nobody wants Iran to possess a
nuclear weapon. ... The hardliners in Iran wouldn't listen to reason.
And now they are the worse for it.

#### Salty

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I don't know a lot about Trump's or Biden's sanctions or lack thereof on Iran. And it's not something I'm particularly passionate about.

Well, I'm not an expert either. But here's a revealing graph for you. The biggest chunk of Iran's foreign-exchange revenue by far is generated by oil exports.

Note how their oil exports plummeted after trump reinstated "maximum pressure" sanctions in 2019, and how they bounced back when Biden loosened the screws. Biden cared more about increasing global oil supplies (and lowering US gas prices) in the run-up to the 2022 & 2024 elections than he worried about giving Tehran the means to resume funding all of their regional mischief.





Under the Shah, Iran used to export over 5 million bpd. If it ever manages to rid itself of the terrorist-thug theocracy that has mis-ruled the country for the past 46 years, it could be a prosperous and successful nation.

MIGA = Make Iran Great Again?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Well, I'm not an expert either. But here's a revealing graph for you. The biggest chunk of Iran's foreign-exchange revenue by far is generated by oil exports.

Note how their oil exports plummeted after trump reinstated "maximum pressure" sanctions in 2019, and how they bounced back when Biden loosened the screws. Biden cared more about increasing global oil supplies (and lowering US gas prices) in the run-up to the 2022 & 2024 elections than he worried about giving Tehran the means to resume funding all of their regional mischief.





Under the Shah, Iran used to export over 5 million bpd. If it ever manages to rid itself of the terrorist-thug theocracy that has mis-ruled the country for the past 46 years, it could be a prosperous and successful nation.

MIGA = Make Iran Great Again?

ChatGPT's telling me the estimated cost to start up a small nuclear program from scratch is $1 billion to $5 billion in 2025 dollars. The incremental cost for each bomb once you have a mature program is $10 million to $50 million. Furthermore, she tells me Pakistan's nuclear program cost $2 billion to $3 billion to develop in 2011 or 2012 dollars.

North Korea, which is horrifically poor and which was subject to extreme sanctions, developed a nuclear arsenal and ICBM's.

Iran's nominal annual GDP ranged from around 262 billion USD to $644 billion USD during 2012 to 2024. In 2024, the IMF estimates it was $434 billion.

This would lead me to believe that sanctions shouldn't be as effective as treaties in controlling Iran's nuclear ambitions. Of course, doing what Israel's doing now is more effective than either. And if the USA were still in the JPCOA treaty Israel probably wouldn't be bombing Iran.

As you know, sanctions in general tend to impoverish the masses while having little effect on the lifestyles of the ruling class. They provide convenient scapegoats for the regimes, which can blame the USA and other foreign countries for their own fuckups.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Jacky S

I don’t think anybody saw this coming. Or at least nobody is admitting to it.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...12-25-hnk-intl

Israel intelligence says that Iran was within a month of having enough fissionable material to make several atomic bombs.

The strikes also took out Iran’s top defense minister and ballistic missal sites.

Secretary State Marco Rubio stated that the US is not involved in this operation, although President Trump stated again today that under no circumstances would Iran be allowed to become a nuclear power.


I believe things are getting ready to get really bad.

Yeah, it's called World War 3. One third of the population will die. It's all planned. Nothing ever happens by accident politically.

[Jacky S]

Everybody is talking about if Obama would have done this, if Biden would have that, if Trump would have did this again, and on and on.

Israel did not give one shit about pieces of paper and treaties that were not worth the ink committed to them.

They knew all along that once Iran got close to having enough fissionable material to assemble a bomb, they would take them out. Period.

Which is exactly what they did, and what they will continue to do.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

can you name one good reason the US should have aided or participated in this?



we'll wait.

He gave you good reasons why it should have not gotten to this point.

Maybe if VM said donny failed at the art of the deal?

Now do you understand?

You are so blatantly fixed on biden/obama/whoever that you totally ignored your own beliefs that donny was the panacea to all ills.

Now that there is no one else to blame except fearless leader.....

Everone who is not a maggie knows y'all can't own your own mistakes.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

...
Even one of our staunchest allies can't work with Trump.
...

Ouch.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Precious_b

He gave you good reasons why it should have not gotten to this point.

Maybe if VM said donny failed at the art of the deal?

Now do you understand?

You are so blatantly fixed on biden/obama/whoever that you totally ignored your own beliefs that donny was the panacea to all ills.

Now that there is no one else to blame except fearless leader.....

Everone who is not a maggie knows y'all can't own your own mistakes.

amusing. so you prefer Trump fully engage in a another middle east war that is between Israel and Iran.



do you understand why that is a stupid idea?

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

If you don't want to believe the statement from the Secretary of State, that's on you.

The MAGA cult syndrome has gotten far worse than any TDS.

Now MAGAs don't even believe statements released from the Trump White House.

Damn. And here I thought TDS is what maggies expressed to the world. My bad. But ima still gonna refer to them as that.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

then post the statements that prove your point.



we'll wait

Let me be a lamb for you

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Make up anything you want. You just dig your hole deeper.

The fact is Israel acted unilaterally.
And to close it as you frequently post when you lose a discussion:

the Secretary of State said so

Damn! You see how maggies act when you give them a hard, clear defined fact.

They go stark raving, foam at the mouth mad screaming at anything and not accepting a simple truth. Gotta thank waco for putting that on for full display. Lord knows he has done it to me when he could not refute facts I posted.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

amusing. so you prefer Trump fully engage in a another middle east war that is between Israel and Iran.



do you understand why that is a stupid idea?

Post the link where I specifically state that? I will wait.

I posted, in terms that you should have understood, what VM stated.

I can rephrase if you like.

Bottom line it donny ain't a deal maker like he says he is and is only good for swing corrupt deals on parking lots.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Precious_b

Damn. And here I thought TDS is what maggies expressed to the world. My bad. But ima still gonna refer to them as that.



Let me be a lamb for you



Damn! You see how maggies act when you give them a hard, clear defined fact.

They go stark raving, foam at the mouth mad screaming at anything and not accepting a simple truth. Gotta thank waco for putting that on for full display. Lord knows he has done it to me when he could not refute facts I posted.




Post the link where I specifically state that? I will wait.

I posted, in terms that you should have understood, what VM stated.

I can rephrase if you like.

Bottom line it donny ain't a deal maker like he says he is and is only good for swing corrupt deals on parking lots.

you imply Trump is weak by agreeing with VM meaning Trump is "weak" by NOT being a neocon warmonger.



brilliant conclusion


bahahhaaaa

[lustylad]

VitaMan is just like trump.

Notice how trump always jumps the gun claiming he has a "deal" in hand when it's really only an outline of a summary of a framework?

Well, VM is now claiming trump had a "deal" in hand with Iran that was so manifestly "weak" it scared the bejesus out of Bibi, who immediately undertook "unilateral" military action against Tehran.

Except VM can't produce a shred of evidence to support this silly claim. Just like trump, when asked, can't show us any completed deals either.

VitaMan and trumpy, two peas in a pod. They're both cut from the same damn cloth!