Hey Speedy, Biden slips to 3rd in Monmouth Poll!

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yes I can have it both ways. As I've said, polls that try to predict what will be 14 months in the future are likely to be very inaccurate. But they indicate what voters think at a specific point in time. Polls show Trump has lost a large percentage of suburban female voters who helped put him into office. He is now focusing on winning them back. Of course, he could ignore the polls and hope they are wrong, like you are doing, or he can take action, which is what he is doing.

Yes polls do have a margin of error, usually in the 3-4% range. And yes, polls can lead respondents to answers. But companies have been running polls for decades and for the most part they have been VERY accurate in their results. Polls on approval ratings have been done since Truman has been in office and one FACT is true. A POTUS running for reelection with a negative approval rating has never won reelection. And a POTUS running for reelection with a positive approval rating has never lost reelection.

Polls are trying to shape public opinion now. Not report it.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

Polls are trying to shape public opinion now. Not report it.

On this, I still largely disagree. I think with the margin of error most polls are solid. I know even watching Trump's reactions to and often changes in tone and position, that he's watching them daily too and reacting.

The pundits and LSM are trying to take those polls and shape public opinion.

Trump, as well as the rest of us conservatives would be foolish to offhandedly dismiss the current polling on the offhand assumption of 2016 being so wrong.

The polls were largely accurate in 2016 within the margin of error. It's the pundits interpreting the polls that seriously screwed up.

And I see conservatives going into this cycle with a false sense of confidence based on their belief that the polls were wrong in 2016.

It was the pundits who totally screwed up 2016 and luckily Hillary took the nonsense seriously and didn't campaign in fly over areas and lost.

DO NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE CONSERVATIVES. Current polling puts Biden ahead of Trump by BEYOND THE MARGIN OF ERROR. Take is seriously and bring the numbers back to Trump like 2016 by the General Election.

[eccielover]

And just the added FYI, Monmouth is already stating their poll was an anomaly and looking at their methods in this particular instance.

So don't take any outlier poll as gospel either. It's bringing all the polls together like 538 and RealClear politics do that gives a sense of trends.

And again the trends show Biden beating Trump. Rather than bloviate about how that's incorrect, help change the numbers to show it's incorrect.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

On this, I still largely disagree. I think with the margin of error most polls are solid. I know even watching Trump's reactions to and often changes in tone and position, that he's watching them daily too and reacting.

The pundits and LSM are trying to take those polls and shape public opinion.

Trump, as well as the rest of us conservatives would be foolish to offhandedly dismiss the current polling on the offhand assumption of 2016 being so wrong.

The polls were largely accurate in 2016 within the margin of error. It's the pundits interpreting the polls that seriously screwed up.

And I see conservatives going into this cycle with a false sense of confidence based on their belief that the polls were wrong in 2016.

It was the pundits who totally screwed up 2016 and luckily Hillary took the nonsense seriously and didn't campaign in fly over areas and lost.

DO NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE CONSERVATIVES. Current polling puts Biden ahead of Trump by BEYOND THE MARGIN OF ERROR. Take is seriously and bring the numbers back to Trump like 2016 by the General Election.

Thank you. The current polls are warning signs. Trump is smart enough to realize this.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

And just the added FYI, Monmouth is already stating their poll was an anomaly and looking at their methods in this particular instance.

So don't take any outlier poll as gospel either. It's bringing all the polls together like 538 and RealClear politics do that gives a sense of trends.

And again the trends show Biden beating Trump. Rather than bloviate about how that's incorrect, help change the numbers to show it's incorrect.

Yes they did. Looks like they were trying to shape public opinion.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

On this, I still largely disagree. I think with the margin of error most polls are solid. I know even watching Trump's reactions to and often changes in tone and position, that he's watching them daily too and reacting.

The pundits and LSM are trying to take those polls and shape public opinion.

Trump, as well as the rest of us conservatives would be foolish to offhandedly dismiss the current polling on the offhand assumption of 2016 being so wrong.

The polls were largely accurate in 2016 within the margin of error. It's the pundits interpreting the polls that seriously screwed up.

And I see conservatives going into this cycle with a false sense of confidence based on their belief that the polls were wrong in 2016.

It was the pundits who totally screwed up 2016 and luckily Hillary took the nonsense seriously and didn't campaign in fly over areas and lost.

DO NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE CONSERVATIVES. Current polling puts Biden ahead of Trump by BEYOND THE MARGIN OF ERROR. Take is seriously and bring the numbers back to Trump like 2016 by the General Election.

Trump didn’t make that mistake last time. He won’t make a mistake this time. Hillary May have been listening to pundits but she had her own internal polls and “experts” in her campaign. But Billy knew better. He saw what was going. He didn’t need polls to see Trump was connecting with Rust Belt voters. Unfortunately for Hillary, she didn’t take his advice. A truly great politician doesn’t need to rely on polls. They rely on their instincts. IMHO, Trump has far better political instincts than any Dem that will face.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

Trump didn’t make that mistake last time. He won’t make a mistake this time. Hillary May have been listening to pundits but she had her own internal polls and “experts” in her campaign. But Billy knew better. He saw what was going. He didn’t need polls to see Trump was connecting with Rust Belt voters. Unfortunately for Hillary, she didn’t take his advice. A truly great politician doesn’t need to rely on polls. They rely on their instincts. IMHO, Trump has far better political instincts than any Dem that will face.

I didn't say Trump made the mistake last time and neither did his people that he had I'm sure watching every poll and going for every vote.

And he won by doing so.

I'm also certain he is watching and reacting to every poll that comes out now, you can see it by his actions. He's not taking it for granted and ignoring them.

NEITHER SHOULD WE.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by bambino

Biden’s favorability rating has dropped by 10pts too.

So did his IQ, lol.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I didn't say Trump made the mistake last time and neither did his people that he had I'm sure watching every poll and going for every vote.

And he won by doing so.

I'm also certain he is watching and reacting to every poll that comes out now, you can see it by his actions. He's not taking it for granted and ignoring them.

NEITHER SHOULD WE.

I don’t take anything for granted, but I see what I see. Trump still draws huge crowds, lots of money coming in, full support of the RNC. I think he’s better positioned this time around. If Biden is the best they got, great. The polls show him beating Trump. I don’t believe them. Some of his actions go against the polls. I’m guessing he trusts his own instincts more than polls. I’d bet attacking the squad was his idea and not generated by polls.

[Yssup Rider]

The polls matter to Trump.

And the approval ratings are a far better gauge of his re-election changes than any polls conducted now.

However, the key states don’t look good for the OS right now.

AND... he just bailed on his trip to Poland. That’s not gonna help him much in Polka Country, eh?

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

The polls matter to Trump.

And the approval ratings are a far better gauge of his re-election changes than any polls conducted now.

However, the key states don’t look good for the OS right now.

AND... he just bailed on his trip to Poland. That’s not gonna help him much in Polka Country, eh?

They didn’t matter in 2016.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by bambino

They didn’t matter in 2016.

That’s because they were all RIGGED.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

That’s because they were all RIGGED.

so you agree that Trump's approval polls are RIGGED!


thanks for clearing that up!

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

The polls matter to Trump.

And the approval ratings are a far better gauge of his re-election changes than any polls conducted now.

However, the key states don’t look good for the OS right now.

AND... he just bailed on his trip to Poland. That’s not gonna help him much in Polka Country, eh?

I'm not overly concerned about the current approval ratings either.

Obama was at roughly 40-42% approval for the entire month of August 2011(the equivalent point in his Presidency to Trump right now). Trump is running very similar. It's not a deal breaker at this point to me.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

They didn’t matter in 2016.

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

That’s because they were all RIGGED.

The polls were accurate. The pundits RIGGED the message and in the end it screwed Hillary.

She was overconfident on the "message" she was seeing and interpreting. Trump took advantage of that and beat her ass.

I don't want Conservatives getting that same overconfidence. Keep up the enthusiasm, but do and don't use 2016 as a model. Take the polls and margins of errors in them seriously as they were accurate in 2016, but don't allow pundits/etc. to guide your dialog to believing Trump is doing better than he is right now.

At this point, it's going to be a bitter fight to the end even if it's Biden. Best thing for Trump is a far far lefty gets the nomination.