Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
LOL. Exactly one state, Wisconsin, was called incorrectly by the polls.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html
The summary of polls right before the election, as shown in the link from RealClearPolitics, had 15 states in the Toss Up column. The political "experts" who predicted the electoral vote outcome made assumptions that were incorrect. They were wrong, the polls were not. |
if you say so
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ed-their-mark/
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump.
Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/u...out-trump.html
A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump
Nearly seven months after the presidential election, pollsters are still trying to answer a question that has rattled trust in their profession:
Why did pre-election polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump in the battleground states that decided the presidency? Is political polling fundamentally broken? Or were the errors understandable and correctable?
https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...s-wrong-2017-5
A group of major pollsters just released an autopsy report to explain why the polls were such a disaster in 2016
A conglomerate of top pollsters released an autopsy report last week on polling in the 2016 election — specifically, what went wildly wrong in overwhelming predictions of a Hillary Clinton presidency.
https://www.npr.org/2016/11/14/50201...rong-this-year
4 Possible Reasons The Polls Got It So Wrong This Year
If you followed the presidential polls at all closely, chances are that you expected Hillary Clinton to win last week. So did all of the major prediction models that use polls to game out election outcome probabilities.
So perhaps everyone should have expected that in a year when all political norms were broken, the polls that the political world fixates upon would also prove to be flawed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37922959
Hillary Clinton and the US election: What went wrong for her?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...tion/93523012/
How did pollsters get Trump, Clinton election so wrong?
Pollsters flubbed the 2016 presidential election in seismic fashion.
Donald Trump's victory dealt a devastating blow to the credibility of the nation's leading pollsters, calling into question their mathematical models, assumptions and survey methods.
Several months of polls pegged Hillary Clinton as the leader in the polarizing race and as the leader in many key battleground states.
https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-fac...-clinton-trump
Polls got Clinton right; they got Trump wrong
One of the big stories of the 2016 presidential election is just how wrong the polls were. The surveys in the final days of the campaign settled on Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump by around four points and winning a solid majority of Electoral College votes. The votes are still being counted, but she has only a slight edge in the popular vote and, of course, lost the Electoral College and the contest. How did the polls do so poorly?
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/op-ed...2016-win-wrong
Why the Polls Were Wrong
Here's how political polling missed Donald Trump's win.
By
Michael Pollard Opinion ContributorNov. 10, 2016, at 4:00 p.m.
The highly polarized 2016 presidential election has finally ended, with president-elect Donald Trump winning in the electoral college, but with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton maintaining a slight edge in the popular vote. Most polls, including our own
Presidential Election Panel Survey, had Clinton leading the popular vote, but by larger margins than actually materialized. Poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics are intended to smooth out the variation among polls of different samples, approaches and limitations, making them more accurate than any single poll. They too missed the mark.
The most obvious way the polls misjudged the election is that people who turned out to vote looked very different from voters in other recent elections. Most polls rely on data gathered from people identified by a variety of factors as "likely voters." If the actual voters this year look substantially different than in previous years – not entirely unreasonable given how unusual this election has been – then these models will do poorly. If there are high levels of undercoverage where not all people are accurately represented in survey samples, or if there are particular kinds of systematic nonresponse to poll questions, this effectively misrepresents the electorate as well.
