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[futbolhead]

70% is the number that Angela Merkel, a scientist, used back in January/February when outlining the sobering likelihood of German citizens who would eventually become infected. It is also being reported by the US scientists. If that number is close to accurate and we maintain the 4.96% death rate of those who become infected, then my numbers are accurate. Do I think 11,000,000+ US citizens die? Not really, but it’s possible if we don’t get our shit together. Trying to con our citizens doesn’t help and that’s what the R’s have been focused on from jump.
The reality is that the herd immunity doesn’t hold up because there is little data that the antibodies help much past a few months. And if we’re waiting on a vaccine, keep waiting, we haven’t created vaccines for h1n1, Ebola, swine flu or aids though a lot of resources have been thrown at them too. It would be nice but it isn’t something to count on. The most likely solution is improving behaviors and treatments.
Full disclosure? I received my own test results back this morning and I’m positive for this shit. Lol, so I have a couple of lonely weeks in front of me until I can knock out a couple of negative tests. I’m healthy and stay in good shape so I’m only minimally concerned. But, it makes you wonder when 2 people in their 30’s, 3 in their 40’s and 2 in their 50’s died from it over the last 24hrs in Dallas county.

[DFWClubgoer]

Statistics, and people say numbers don’t lie! Just depends on the order you put them in the equation.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by futbolhead

I see what you did. You made up an extremely high asymptomatic number and entered it in as though it’s relevant. Almost as though asymptomatic cases aren’t included in the case numbers.

I didn't make up the asymptomatic number. It came from the CDC. Your Mortality rate calculation is not accurate, because you don't include the number of asymptomatics in your calculation. For the number of people infected, you are only counting those with symptoms. The number of asymptomatics was determined by counting antibodies for CV19 from serology tests. People who are asymptomatic are not going to the doctor or getting tested at drive thru generally, so their count has to be estimated.

There is not a doctor on the planet who thinks there can be or will be 11 million deaths from CV19 in the USA. The mortality rate is much lower than 4%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/co...9Dp?li=BBnb7Kz

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Aoi

I mean, the chances of survival are over 99 percent,

A mortality rate that is calculated by including the number of asymptomatics is right at 1%. So, your survival rate statement of 99% is pretty accurate. The thing is with a Mortality rate of 1% for CV19 means that in the USA with a population around 330 million people, 3 million people would die if 300 million people got infected. Until a vaccine that works can be developed if social distance concepts are not practiced, 300 million people could become infected.

[pathfinder420]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

A mortality rate that is calculated by including the number of asymptomatics is right at 1%. So, your survival rate statement of 99% is pretty accurate. The thing is with a Mortality rate of 1% for CV19 means that in the USA with a population around 330 million people, 3 million people would die if 300 million people got infected. Until a vaccine that works can be developed if social distance concepts are not practiced, 300 million people could become infected.

For perspective, 3M is about the population of Dallas County.

[texassapper]

JFC. This is why the liberals wanted to control the schools, so nobody could figure out how to do the math.

Let's just use the info from Johns Hopkins and LA county.

?????? unconfirmed CCPCOVID infections (completely estimated)
105665 confirmed CCPCOVID infections
3405 confirmed CCPCOVID deaths.


we know that the 105,665 confirmed infections represent a small fraction of the true UNTESTED infections. A swedish study confirmed that our tested infection rate is about 6.6% of the total number of infections. Thus in LA County the true infected number is likely ~ 1.6 million people (about 10% of the total population)

That means the true fatality rate is ~ 3405/1.6 Million = .21%

That's twice as fatal as Flu and would result in ~700,000 fatalities across the entire US.

The CDC updated their fatality rate to be below .3%

And let's just talk about the age split.... The CDC also indicates that 80% of all CCPCOVID deaths are from people age 60 and up. Which means that only about 140K <65 are going to die from CCPCOVID.

Sure CCPCOVID kills more people than the flu... But it's not worth the stupidity of closing everything down.