1st 2012 Prediction - Iran and Israel

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

The costs for Israel is that Israel won't exist if one nuke hits it.

And from reports I read today, Iran is preparing itself to throw down with
the US or Israel or both.

No alliance? I think all the Jews in the US will beg to differ. However, if you were only
referring to Obama then you are correct. Obama has turned his back on Israel.

Obama's not turned against Israel. What's happened is that under Netanyahu Israel has refused even the figleaf of the negotiations game that the US was promoting, and the US is trying to bring him back into that little charade. Obama's finger-waving is nothing more than that.

As for an alliance with Israel....

The US has binding treaty alliances with NATO, etc. which absolutely determine that the US will come to the aid of another member should it be attacked.

If Israel had wanted to guarantee its security long ago why didn't it enter into such a treaty with the US like even the Koreans have?

Think about it.....

Neither the Israelis or the US government want for the US to come to the direct aid of Israel should it be attacked. There are several reasons for this, but the first is this....

DESPITE WHAT ANYONE SAYS MOST PEOPLE IN THE STATE DEPARTMENT, CIA, AND EVEN PENTAGON ARE ARABISTS WHO DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ISRAEL HAS A RIGHT TO EXIST.

The American people don't know this BUT THE ISRAELIS DO.

The Israelis would never allow their security to rest on the American government BECAUSE THEY DO NOT TRUST IT.

That's why the Israelis have been caught time and again spying on the American government in the most sensitive of ways.

Look into the acedemic programs from which all the government's Middle Eastern experts are trained and you will see that the Arab point of view and Arab studies dominate everything...and the Israelis have no participation at all.

To counter-balance this Israelis dominate the right-wing "think tanks" like AEI and a host of others from which political appointees are drawn in Republican administrations.

As far as one nuclear bomb destroying Israel...

NO WAY MAN.

It would take more than one bomb to destroy the Israelis' ability to retaliate with their nuclear forces.

Depending on their state of readiness it might even be IMPOSSIBLE to prevent the Israelis from retaliating with many nuclear weapons.

It ain't gonna happen Dude.

[kingorpawn]

Exactly, it's not going to happen because Israel is going to make sure
Iran doesn't have the capability in less than 12 months.

[DTorrchia]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Obama's not turned against Israel. What's happened is that under Netanyahu Israel has refused even the figleaf of the negotiations game that the US was promoting, and the US is trying to bring him back into that little charade. Obama's finger-waving is nothing more than that.

As for an alliance with Israel....

The US has binding treaty alliances with NATO, etc. which absolutely determine that the US will come to the aid of another member should it be attacked.

If Israel had wanted to guarantee its security long ago why didn't it enter into such a treaty with the US like even the Koreans have?

Think about it.....

Neither the Israelis or the US government want for the US to come to the direct aid of Israel should it be attacked. There are several reasons for this, but the first is this....

DESPITE WHAT ANYONE SAYS MOST PEOPLE IN THE STATE DEPARTMENT, CIA, AND EVEN PENTAGON ARE ARABISTS WHO DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ISRAEL HAS A RIGHT TO EXIST.

Most civilians and military personnel in the Pentagon are "Arabists" who don't believe Israel has a right to exist?? ROFLMAO!!!!!
That is the FUNNIEST and most ridiculous statement I've heard in a very long time.
This statement is no doubt based on the in depth knowledge you gained while sitting next to some military Officers in Grad school.
The fact that you never were in the military, never attended any military schools for high ranking Officers, never pulled a tour of duty AT the Pentagon makes your statement what it is. Ridiculous conjecture.
The majority of the military's top brass very much support Israel's right to exist.

The American people don't know this BUT THE ISRAELIS DO.

Ahmmm, maybe that's because YOU'RE the only American that seems to think so?

The Israelis would never allow their security to rest on the American government BECAUSE THEY DO NOT TRUST IT.

That I agree with 100%! And they are right in not trusting our fickle politicians and policies.

That's why the Israelis have been caught time and again spying on the American government in the most sensitive of ways.

Look into the acedemic programs from which all the government's Middle Eastern experts are trained and you will see that the Arab point of view and Arab studies dominate everything...and the Israelis have no participation at all.

To counter-balance this Israelis dominate the right-wing "think tanks" like AEI and a host of others from which political appointees are drawn in Republican administrations.

As far as one nuclear bomb destroying Israel...

NO WAY MAN.

It would take more than one bomb to destroy the Israelis' ability to retaliate with their nuclear forces.

Depending on their state of readiness it might even be IMPOSSIBLE to prevent the Israelis from retaliating with many nuclear weapons.

It ain't gonna happen Dude.

As Kingorpawn said, damn right it's not gonna happen. Iran will be dealt with before it gets that chance. I'd be surprised if 2012 draws to a close without a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

Exactly, it's not going to happen because Israel is going to make sure
Iran doesn't have the capability in less than 12 months.

If that happens my record for sterling predictions on this board will be shot to hell.

Oh and just one more thing I failed to mention....

Anyone seeking to kill Israelis with a nuclear bomb is going to kill/maime hundreds of thousands or millions of Palestinian Arabs, Druse, and others who'll be aweful pissed off and won't exactly view it as any favor to them.

Sort of counter-productive.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

If that happens my record for sterling predictions on this board will be shot to hell.

And I get 1 hr with each one of your girls for free.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Oh and just one more thing I failed to mention....

Anyone seeking to kill Israelis with a nuclear bomb is going to kill/maime hundreds of thousands or millions of Palestinian Arabs, Druse, and others who'll be aweful pissed off and won't exactly view it as any favor to them.

Sort of counter-productive.

I'll agree with that. I have a Palestinian friend who said the same thing.
He said Iran will destroy itself if they were to do that, but
unfortunately, I just don't see Israel taking that chance.
One way or the other, either Obama does it or Israel. Iran
will not get the bomb.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

I'll agree with that. I have a Palestinian friend who said the same thing.
He said Iran will destroy itself if they were to do that, but
unfortunately, I just don't see Israel taking that chance.
One way or the other, either Obama does it or Israel. Iran
will not get the bomb.

This is sort of what I've been saying all along....that the Iranians will not complete the assembly of any bomb because they have no where to test it, and doing so would bring a world of shit down on them.

What the Israelis and US/UK is doing now is trying to keep them from reaching the point where they can put the parts together if they had to in a crunch.

The Iranians want to be able to put a bomb together fast if they are ever really threatened with what Saddam got.

Everyone learned that what happened to Saddam only happened because he didn't have a bomb....if he did he would still be in power today.

What everyone wants now is to be able to put one together fast should they need to...

[winemaker]

Originally Posted by DTorrchia

On September 6, 2007, Israel attacked Syria's al-Kibar nuclear facility. This attack surprised the world—Syria most of all.
Al-Kibar was protected by the same Russian-built Tor-M1 air defense system used to protect Iranian facilities.
This was certainly NOT 1960's era radar. It was at the time some of the most sophisticated air defense systems in the region. Israel's electronics warfare planes and other counter measures defeated the system allowing the strike to take place.

Since then Iran has purchased the advanced S-300 air defense system from Russia.

Are we to believe that the U.S. and Israel, which have BOTH shown the capability to defeat the air defense systems of Iraq, Syria and others, are somehow NOT capable of defeating the S-300 that the Iranians now have?
While there may be a few people here that think so, I actually hope the Iranians believe it too. It will make the success that much sweeter when it takes place.

Stealth technology is nice and gives us an edge but Israel and the United States both possess some of the world's best electronics warfare capability specifically designed to defeat these air defense systems. As Kingorpawn and others have pointed out, our technology, our weapons systems and our superior tactics still give us an edge over any organized army in the world. At least for now.

UWB is a stealth radar. Usually cannot be detected. UWB can detect ANY known stealth aircraft currently produced by USA. ECM only goes so far.

Many countries ( China, Russia, France, Germany ) have UWB radar since the early 90's.

[DTorrchia]

Originally Posted by winemaker

UWB is a stealth radar. Usually cannot be detected. UWB can detect ANY known stealth aircraft currently produced by USA. ECM only goes so far.

Many countries ( China, Russia, France, Germany ) have UWB radar since the early 90's.

Having a certain level of technology and having troops trained in such a manner as to get the most out of that technology are two different things.
I have yet to see a Country in the last 30 years that can match us when it comes to our ability to put the best troops, best equipment and best tactics forward in a conventional war setting (air strikes, missile strikes, tank warfare etc). The Israeli's proved it in Syria in 2007 and prior attacks in previous wars against Egypt and others. We've proven it in two wars against Iraq, air strikes and missile strikes in the Balkans and many other places. Our air superiority and our ability to hit targets ANYWHERE we choose in the Middle East is unmatched and their armies simply lack the tactics, training or technology to stop us should we choose to strike.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

This is sort of what I've been saying all along....that the Iranians will not complete the assembly of any bomb because they have no where to test it, and doing so would bring a world of shit down on them.

What the Israelis and US/UK is doing now is trying to keep them from reaching the point where they can put the parts together if they had to in a crunch.

The Iranians want to be able to put a bomb together fast if they are ever really threatened with what Saddam got.

Everyone learned that what happened to Saddam only happened because he didn't have a bomb....if he did he would still be in power today.

What everyone wants now is to be able to put one together fast should they need to...

I agree with this to a certain point. But again Israel made sure Saddam never got the bomb. They didn't take any chances. Yes, if Israel or the US can find ways to deny Iran the bomb without bombing them that's what they will do. And they have actually done that.
The only country I know that doesn't have a nuke and could put a nuke together pretty quickly is Japan, 6 months. Of course, that was before the earthquake hit.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by DTorrchia

Having a certain level of technology and having troops trained in such a manner as to get the most out of that technology are two different things.
I have yet to see a Country in the last 30 years that can match us when it comes to our ability to put the best troops, best equipment and best tactics forward in a conventional war setting (air strikes, missile strikes, tank warfare etc). The Israeli's proved it in Syria in 2007 and prior attacks in previous wars against Egypt and others. We've proven it in two wars against Iraq, air strikes and missile strikes in the Balkans and many other places. Our air superiority and our ability to hit targets ANYWHERE we choose in the Middle East is unmatched and their armies simply lack the tactics, training or technology to stop us should we choose to strike.

DT is correct.
That is why China and Russia are stealing all our secrets using cyber espionage. Of course, putting all that info into practical use is another thing. Both China and Russia got scared after we defeated Iraq
pretty quickly during the first gulf war and that's when they realized they
didn't stand a chance against the US, so they intensified their cyber espionage to get our technology. All their latest weapons are copies of
ours.

[winemaker]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

DT is correct.
That is why China and Russia are stealing all our secrets using cyber espionage. Of course, putting all that info into practical use is another thing. Both China and Russia got scared after we defeated Iraq
pretty quickly during the first gulf war and that's when they realized they
didn't stand a chance against the US, so they intensified their cyber espionage to get our technology. All their latest weapons are copies of
ours.

Come on, do you really think Iraq was a serious threat to our Armed Forces during the Gulf War ? Sheesh.

Imitation is the best form of flattery.
Its what you get with > $600 billion in defense funding, which no other country comes close to, some 40x that of Russia in 2010.

The most brilliant scientists I've ever met were from Russia. Theoretical talent exceeds our by light years. They just don't have the same level of funding. But brilliant they are, and no, the east had UWB about the same time.

Sorry, their MiGs have an extreme advantage over US aircraft, lack of susceptibility to EMP. So, definately not a copy of US tech.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by winemaker

Come on, do you really think Iraq was a serious threat to our Armed Forces during the Gulf War ? Sheesh.

No, i didn't say that. I said Iraq was quickly defeated. I do know that Saddam was warned that if he uses any type of WMD against U.S. forces we would nuke him.

[DTorrchia]

Originally Posted by winemaker

Come on, do you really think Iraq was a serious threat to our Armed Forces during the Gulf War ? Sheesh.

Imitation is the best form of flattery.
Its what you get with > $600 billion in defense funding, which no other country comes close to, some 40x that of Russia in 2010.

The most brilliant scientists I've ever met were from Russia. Theoretical talent exceeds our by light years. They just don't have the same level of funding. But brilliant they are, and no, the east had UWB about the same time.

Sorry, their MiGs have an extreme advantage over US aircraft, lack of susceptibility to EMP. So, definately not a copy of US tech.

Again, these are two different issues. Even if the Russians provided Iran with their most up to date MIGs (which they won't), Iran's pilots could never compete with ours in the air. Look at any air to air combat over the last 50 years and you'll see we always have held a distinct advantage. In some cases our fighter aircraft were superior, in some cases they were not. One thing that always brought us out on top was the superior training and tactics of our pilots. The same holds true for Tank warfare, missiles, infantry tactics etc. There simply is no army in the middle east that could prevent or thwart an attack by the United States if/when the decision is made to launch such an attack.
The issue now seems to be whether or not the current administration has the willpower to do what's necessary to prevent Iran from building a bomb, attempting to build one or simply have one available for quick assembly. Should Obama prove not to have the willpower to prevent Iran from accomplishing its goals, I'm fairly confident Israel will take matters into their own hands.

[Billy_Saul]

While we are on the subject of Iran; can someone who knows more then myself please explain to me why the drone that went down in Iran territory recently was allowed to be taken whole by that government. Given that the US has the capability to put a laser guided bomb down your chimney, I can't believe we just threw up our hands on this one and allowed this technology to be captured. Is it perhaps a Trojan drone?