Trump/Biden tied In Minnesota!!!!!!

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Tsmokies

All we need is a few more weeks/months of the trump meltdown. He is getting more fun to watch/read everyday. He will be even more stupid/ignorant

He'll never beat Biden in that department, lol.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I think Trump's toast. But it's interesting to see the trend in Minnesota. If you believe the polls it looks like Trump is gaining a lot of ground. This is from Real Clear Politics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...966.html#polls


Gravis 6/19/2019 Biden +16%
Fox News 7/20/2020 Biden +13%
Trafalgar Group 7/25/2020 Biden +5%
Emerson 8/10/2020 Biden +3%
Traflagar Group 8/18/2020 Biden +0.4%

For grins I looked at Texas too,

Quinnipiac 7/20/2020 Biden +1%
Trafalgar Group 8/5/2020 Trump +6%
Rice University / You Gov. 8/13/2020 Trump + 7%

After making a quick check, I don't think you'll see this trend bear out for most other states.

did you think he was toast in 2016? while not directed at you so much, it's really for speedy and his insistence that polls proclaiming Biden leading are dead on correct and any polls showing Trump leading are incorrect.

he'll now howl that he never said any such thing but he's implied it time after time. the way polls are conducted, they can be swayed to any results desired. and by basing the results on the correct subset .. it is actually valid. but worthless given the full data set which showed something else.

I've said here before if I wanted to conduct a poll that showed the sky was green I could easily do so. and I could back it up with data. all I need to do is poll a set of people who are color blind and there you have it, actual data that the sky is green. but only to people who are color blind. to the vast majority who are not, the sky is blue.

Clinton in 2016 and her DNC campaign minions did exactly this. with the assistance of the bulk of the media who daily proclaimed Clinton had huge leads where it's clear she didn't. this was an attempt to dishearten any people who were leaning toward Trump (never mind the millions who were firmly for Trump) that Trump had no chance and their votes were essentially worthless, that they had no chance to influence the election by voting for Trump. well we all know how that turned out, eh?

even worse for Clinton and the DNC in 2016, two things resulted from this. first the Democrats are lazy voters. they make a big noise but they forget to seal the deal and actually vote. then when they lose they can't understand why. it's because these lazy fucktards didn't vote. yeah it's that simple. also it appears that Clinton drank her own poisoned poll kool-aide. which is why she didn't campaign hard in the stretch run, the most critical part of any campaign. I should note that it is also possible her health was a factor, we'll probably never know on that, as no one from her camp is going to admit she had some sort of health issue. regardless of the reason(s), she didn't make the effort. Trump did.

if I were the DNC I'd portray Biden as the underdog, and from the point of view of challenging an incumbent president he is. I'd also on purpose rig my polls to show Trump ahead. doesn't matter if he is or is not. the point would be to galvanize the democratic base to do the one most important thing required to win an election for your candidate .. VOTE!.

this is what happened in 2016 and is happening again. the DNC is foolishly claiming huge poll numbers showing Biden ahead and ahead bigly. the result was that it galvanized the republican base to turn out and vote. and it will again in 2020. I'm not discounting independent voters, as it will have a similar effect but harder to predict. so I'm mainly contrasting democrats and republicans for the sake of this argument.

as an aside .. another somewhat worthless way to gauge an election are yard signs. in 2016 in my area there weren't many signs out for either Trump or Clinton. very low level of support for either if you base it on signs. and the signs that were out were evenly split. again while signs aren't really reliable in determining an election, less so than polls, it on face value indicated a close race, a dead heat. contrast that to the polls that proclaimed Clinton had these huge leads.

so far, I see very few signs up. it's a bit early but very few. but guess what? once again they are evenly split. I even saw a "house divided" like in football. yep, there is a house a few streets over that has a sign for both Biden and Trump in the yard. positioned on each side of their walkway in classic "house divided" fashion.

I'm sure several of the usual suspects will find this interesting but the sign I had for Trump 2016 I stole from the Plano library where they have voting in my area. yeah. I stole it. on purpose. for the Hell of it. laughed my ass off. I just pulled in. got out and took one of the Trump signs and left. 5 minutes later it was in my front yard.

it's the very sign I posted that photo of. along with my neighbor who also had a Trump sign. two actually, one on each side. so far he has not put up any signs. I don't think he will. does that mean he's lost faith in Evil Lord Trump? Nope. about 5 months ago he put up a Trump 2020 campaign FLAG. yes a FLAG. 4 x 6 ft. not some little pennant. a huge 4 x 6 ft Flag. right under his same size US flag.

I should take a photo and post it but that might be a bit much, not that I'd be worried about outing my neighbor on a ho board he almost certainly doesn't know or care about, just because the photo might make it too easy to determine the exact address and thus my address as I live right next to him.

I may or may not grab another Trump sign from Plano library. but regardless of how I obtain one, I WILL HAVE ONE IN MY YARD.

this is NOT my neighbor's house but it is the exact size flag he has along with his US flag.




TRUMP 2020!

BAHHAHAAAAAAA

[bambino]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

did you think he was toast in 2016? while not directed at you so much, it's really for speedy and his insistence that polls proclaiming Biden leading are dead on correct and any polls showing Trump leading are incorrect.

he'll now howl that he never said any such thing but he's implied it time after time. the way polls are conducted, they can be swayed to any results desired. and by basing the results on the correct subset .. it is actually valid. but worthless given the full data set which showed something else.

I've said here before if I wanted to conduct a poll that showed the sky was green I could easily do so. and I could back it up with data. all I need to do is poll a set of people who are color blind and there you have it, actual data that the sky is green. but only to people who are color blind. to the vast majority who are not, the sky is blue.

Clinton in 2016 and her DNC campaign minions did exactly this. with the assistance of the bulk of the media who daily proclaimed Clinton had huge leads where it's clear she didn't. this was an attempt to dishearten any people who were leaning toward Trump (never mind the millions who were firmly for Trump) that Trump had no chance and their votes were essentially worthless, that they had no chance to influence the election by voting for Trump. well we all know how that turned out, eh?

even worse for Clinton and the DNC in 2016, two things resulted from this. first the Democrats are lazy voters. they make a big noise but they forget to seal the deal and actually vote. then when they lose they can't understand why. it's because these lazy fucktards didn't vote. yeah it's that simple. also it appears that Clinton drank her own poisoned poll kool-aide. which is why she didn't campaign hard in the stretch run, the most critical part of any campaign. I should note that it is also possible her health was a factor, we'll probably never know on that, as no one from her camp is going to admit she had some sort of health issue. regardless of the reason(s), she didn't make the effort. Trump did.

if I were the DNC I'd portray Biden as the underdog, and from the point of view of challenging an incumbent president he is. I'd also on purpose rig my polls to show Trump ahead. doesn't matter if he is or is not. the point would be to galvanize the democratic base to do the one most important thing required to win an election for your candidate .. VOTE!.

this is what happened in 2016 and is happening again. the DNC is foolishly claiming huge poll numbers showing Biden ahead and ahead bigly. the result was that it galvanized the republican base to turn out and vote. and it will again in 2020. I'm not discounting independent voters, as it will have a similar effect but harder to predict. so I'm mainly contrasting democrats and republicans for the sake of this argument.

as an aside .. another somewhat worthless way to gauge an election are yard signs. in 2016 in my area there weren't many signs out for either Trump or Clinton. very low level of support for either if you base it on signs. and the signs that were out were evenly split. again while signs aren't really reliable in determining an election, less so that polls, it on face value indicated a close race, a dead heat. contrast that to the polls that proclaimed Clinton had these huge leads.

so far, I see very few signs up. it's a bit early but very few. but guess what? once again they are evenly split. I even saw a "house divided" like in football. yep, there is a house a few streets over that has a sign for both Biden and Trump in the yard. positioned on each side of their walkway in classic "house divided" fashion.

I'm sure several of the usual suspects will find this interesting but the sign I had for Trump 2016 I stole from the Plano library where they have voting in my area. yeah. I stole it. on purpose. for the Hell of it. laughed my ass off. I just pulled in. got out and took one of the Trump signs and left. 5 minutes later it was in my front yard.

it's the very sign I posted that photo of. along with my neighbor who also had a Trump sign. two actually, one on each side. so far he has not put up any signs. I don't think he will. does that mean he's lost faith in Evil Lord Trump? Nope. about 5 months ago he put up a Trump 2020 campaign FLAG. yes a FLAG. 4 x 6 ft. not some little pennant. a huge 4 x 6 ft Flag. right under his same size US flag.

I should take a photo and post it but that might be a bit much, not that I'd be worried about outing my neighbor on a ho board he almost certainly doesn't know or care about, just because the photo might make it too easy to determine the exact address and thus my address as I live right next to him.

I may or may not grab another Trump sign from Plano library. but regardless of how I obtain one, I WILL HAVE ONE IN MY YARD.

this is NOT my neighbor's house but it is the exact size flag he has along with his US flag.




TRUMP 2020!

BAHHAHAAAAAAA

I think it will be tight in Illinois and NY. Lots of peaceful people are tired of the violence. I also think several seats in Cali will flip to Republicans.

[bb1961]

I love when SPEED says..."I'm against the violence"...but when I press him with the facts that his beloved party hasn't condemned these violent anarchist AT ALL he's quiet as a church mouse

[Tiny]

You're the only person here with longer posts than me, and sometimes I don't read the whole thing. Well, maybe I've been missing out -- certainly there are some interesting points in this one. A few replies below.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

did you think he was toast in 2016?

I figured Hillary would probably win but I didn't think he was toast. This time I think he's toast.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

while not directed at you so much, it's really for speedy and his insistence that polls proclaiming Biden leading are dead on correct and any polls showing Trump leading are incorrect.

he'll now howl that he never said any such thing but he's implied it time after time. the way polls are conducted, they can be swayed to any results desired. and by basing the results on the correct subset .. it is actually valid. but worthless given the full data set which showed something else.

I've said here before if I wanted to conduct a poll that showed the sky was green I could easily do so. and I could back it up with data. all I need to do is poll a set of people who are color blind and there you have it, actual data that the sky is green. but only to people who are color blind. to the vast majority who are not, the sky is blue.

Speedy's actually a pretty keen observer of the polls. He comes up with thoughts from time to time that are more incisive than what you get from the pundits on cable news. And, when it comes to Trump's chances in the election, he's probably a Tad optimistic, from your perspective, not his. In the past, not necessarily now, he's said it's a toss up or too early to tell when Predictit.org and the British betting houses would lead you to believe Biden's the favorite.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Clinton in 2016 and her DNC campaign minions did exactly this. with the assistance of the bulk of the media who daily proclaimed Clinton had huge leads where it's clear she didn't. this was an attempt to dishearten any people who were leaning toward Trump (never mind the millions who were firmly for Trump) that Trump had no chance and their votes were essentially worthless, that they had no chance to influence the election by voting for Trump. well we all know how that turned out, eh?

even worse for Clinton and the DNC in 2016, two things resulted from this. first the Democrats are lazy voters. they make a big noise but they forget to seal the deal and actually vote. then when they lose they can't understand why. it's because these lazy fucktards didn't vote. yeah it's that simple. also it appears that Clinton drank her own poisoned poll kool-aide. which is why she didn't campaign hard in the stretch run, the most critical part of any campaign. I should note that it is also possible her health was ae factor, we'll probably never know on that, as no one from her camp is going to admit she had some sort of health issue. regardless of the reason(s), she didn't make the effort. Trump did.

Well, if it was the intention of Clinton and the media to dishearten Trump voters and keep them away from the polls it backfired. More likely, it caused "lazy" Democrats to stay away from the polls.

This is the main reason by the way that Democrats want to send ballots by mail to every registered voter and Republicans don't. While your average Millenial Democrat may be too lazy to actually go to the polls, he's not too lazy to mark a ballot and drop it in the mail, provided he doesn't have to pay for the postage. Which I guess would be illegal since paying for a stamp would be like paying a poll tax.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

if I were the DNC I'd portray Biden as the underdog, and from the point of view of challenging an incumbent president he is. I'd also on purpose rig my polls to show Trump ahead. doesn't matter if he is or is not. the point would be to galvanize the democratic base to do the one most important thing required to win an election for your candidate .. VOTE!.

Agreed. A lot of them hate Trump's guts enough to actually vote, but not if they figure out he's going to lose anyway.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid;1062169932this is what happened in 2016 and is happening again. the DNC is foolishly claiming huge poll numbers showing Biden ahead and ahead[I

bigly. [/I]the result was that it galvanized the republican base to turn out and vote. and it will again in 2020. I'm not discounting independent voters, as it will have a similar effect but harder to predict. so I'm mainly contrasting democrats and republicans for the sake of this argument.

as an aside .. another somewhat worthless way to gauge an election are yard signs. in 2016 in my area there weren't many signs out for either Trump or Clinton. very low level of support for either if you base it on signs. and the signs that were out were evenly split. again while signs aren't really reliable in determining an election, less so than polls, it on face value indicated a close race, a dead heat. contrast that to the polls that proclaimed Clinton had these huge leads.

so far, I see very few signs up. it's a bit early but very few. but guess what? once again they are evenly split. I even saw a "house divided" like in football. yep, there is a house a few streets over that has a sign for both Biden and Trump in the yard. positioned on each side of their walkway in classic "house divided" fashion.

I'm sure several of the usual suspects will find this interesting but the sign I had for Trump 2016 I stole from the Plano library where they have voting in my area. yeah. I stole it. on purpose. for the Hell of it. laughed my ass off. I just pulled in. got out and took one of the Trump signs and left. 5 minutes later it was in my front yard.

it's the very sign I posted that photo of. along with my neighbor who also had a Trump sign. two actually, one on each side. so far he has not put up any signs. I don't think he will. does that mean he's lost faith in Evil Lord Trump? Nope. about 5 months ago he put up a Trump 2020 campaign FLAG. yes a FLAG. 4 x 6 ft. not some little pennant. a huge 4 x 6 ft Flag. right under his same size US flag.

I should take a photo and post it but that might be a bit much, not that I'd be worried about outing my neighbor on a ho board he almost certainly doesn't know or care about, just because the photo might make it too easy to determine the exact address and thus my address as I live right next to him.

I may or may not grab another Trump sign from Plano library. but regardless of how I obtain one, I WILL HAVE ONE IN MY YARD.

this is NOT my neighbor's house but it is the exact size flag he has along with his US flag.




TRUMP 2020!

BAHHAHAAAAAAA

We're arguing about whether president Obama or president Trump should be prosecuted for crimes in another thread. My argument is that an aggressive prosecutor can go after anyone, including any of us, and we shouldn't allow that to happen to our ex Presidents. This kind of fits into my argument. You could go to the big house for that, stealing property and interfering for the political process. But it would be a travesty of everything that's good and just about America to do that to you.

[HoeHummer]

I don’t think there’s a lot of regards in The USEh for goodness and justice, eh?

Isn’t that why most Yanks hate their lives right now?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

I don’t think there’s a lot of regards in The USEh for goodness and justice, eh?

Isn’t that why most Yanks hate their lives right now?

I don't hate my life. I love it! The government's going to send me $312 that I'm going to spend on an hour with a hot provider. Please see Lusty Lad's U.S. postal service thread which is competing with yours for top billing.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I don't hate my life. I love it! The government's going to send me $312 that I'm going to spend on an hour with a hot provider. Please see Lusty Lad's U.S. postal service thread which is competing with yours for top billing.

don't feed the fake Canadian troll. let Yssup Hoe Rider Hummer die on the vine like a rotten grape

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Tiny

You're the only person here with longer posts than me,...

Ain't feeling no love this way. I'm feeling as jilted as Bill Stevenson ;-)

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I mentioned this in another post where I also cited Biden leading Trump by 2% in Texas.

One needs to filter out illegal aliens and Californians.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

I love when SPEED says..."I'm against the violence"...but when I press him with the facts that his beloved party hasn't condemned these violent anarchist AT ALL he's quiet as a church mouse

Actually I did respond in another post but I'll say it again.

I think that Biden and other Democrats should condemn the violence happening in a handful of cities. Biden has already said he does not support defunding of police and would rather see MORE police on the streets. That is great but he should go further in my opinion. The subject of law and order will be high on Trump's negative campaign list.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

did you think he was toast in 2016? while not directed at you so much, it's really for speedy and his insistence that polls proclaiming Biden leading are dead on correct and any polls showing Trump leading are incorrect.

he'll now howl that he never said any such thing but he's implied it time after time. the way polls are conducted, they can be swayed to any results desired. and by basing the results on the correct subset .. it is actually valid. but worthless given the full data set which showed something else.

When did I ever say any polls showing Trump ahead are "incorrect"? I'll make it easy for you. NEVER.

Rasmussen has Trump +4 in its latest approval ratings. Incorrect? I don't know for certain anymore than I know that a Poitico poll showing Trump -20% is incorrect. What I have consistently said is to not take any single poll at a single point in time to be correct or incorrect. Look at the average of ALL polls taken on a particular subject and you will come closer to the actual feelings of voters.

I also think it's important to look at how accurate polling companies have been in the past before citing a specific poll. Muhlenburg College and ABC News and Marist College are rated A+ based on their past accuracy in predicting results. Trafalgar Group is rated C-.

Yes, polls can be swayed to get the answers desired. I challenge you to find a poll that has done so. They certainly do exist but are rare. The polls conducted by the companies graded the highest are totally unbiased. It does them no good when their results are wrong.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I challenge you to find a poll that has done so. They certainly do exist but are rare. The polls conducted by the companies graded the highest are totally unbiased. It does them no good when their results are wrong.

That requires a lengthy examination of the sample selection, drafting of the questions, and analysis of the responses at the time the responses were given to the person asking the questions.

More importantly, one must VERIFY that all responses were truthful.*

So your "challenge" is hollow!

This board/blog is a perfect example of inaccurate reporting!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

That requires a lengthy examination of the sample selection, drafting of the questions, and analysis of the responses at the time the responses were given to the person asking the questions.

More importantly, one must VERIFY that all responses were truthful.*

So your "challenge" is hollow!

This board/blog is a perfect example of inaccurate reporting!

It is very easy to find the exact questions asked and who has responded to the polls.

However, you are correct in that it is difficult to verify that the responses were truthful. Again I will point to the accuracy of polls over time and in most cases the results have been very accurate. In 2016 exactly one state, Wisconsin, was predicted incorrectly. In 2018, the poll predictions were close to perfect.

[Munchmasterman]

No, Florida is.

trump is 45.94

Biden is 45.90.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/fl-pres-0720/

Originally Posted by bambino

Yes, the land of George Floyd! Is Illinois next?

https://nypost.com/2020/08/20/minnes...dead-heat/amp/

BAHAHAHAHA