We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by oeb11

In DFW there are plenty of available hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.

The whole point that you and every other denier is missing is that the pandemic is only JUST GETTING STARTED in Texas.


Dallas and Houston are trailing NYC by several weeks because those cities do not have the mass transit system"super spreader" that NYC has. It is the same reason why Los Angeles is lagging. They are being saved by their cars.


A couple of weeks ago, NYC had plenty of ventilators and hospital beds, too. Now look. 560 dead in a single day.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Also, I was always talking about Texas so try to keep up, you idiot.

I don't give a fuck, cunt-face. You were responding to MY post about the rising exponential curve in the US, not in Texas. So, your diversion about Texas doesn't mean squat.

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Additionally, you did not address my assertion about the number of hospitalizations being a significant data point, either.

Also, the tests are only being run on people with fevers, biasing the sampling all to hell...

Fucking inflexible minded engineer...

The number of hospitalizations? Who cares? The data cited from the Johns Hopkins website discusses TOTAL cases, deaths, and recoveries.


Both deaths and hospitalizations are irrelevant for figuring out where we are because they are WAY behind the actual case count. It can take a week or more from the time a person tests positive until the time they get seriously sick and/or die.


So, deaths and hospitalizations are too low. It takes them a week to catch up and in the meantime, the true number of new infections has doubled from last week.


See how that works?


If people got violently sick within 24 hours of being infected, there wouldn't be much of a discrepancy. But there is because of the long time period before symptoms show up.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by Missburger

them old people keep dying you will be a blue state lol

just wait

By that logic, NY will be getting redder. Certain parts of California, too.

[friendly fred]

Update:

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857
02Apr2020 positive tests 4,669 negative tests 46,010 deaths 70 total tests 50679
02Apr2020 positive tests 5,330 negative tests 50,434 deaths 90 total tests 55764
02Apr2020 positive tests 6,110 negative tests 57,641 deaths 105 total tests 63751

9 out of 10 cases test negative among symptomatic persons getting limited resources. Just think how low it would be if everyone were tested.

Positive cases each day:

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse
(4669-3997)/3997 = 16.8% increase - not exponential
(5330-4669)/4669 = 14.2% increase - 2 straight days of a lower increase
(6110-5330)/5330 = 14.6% increase - flattened yet?

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low and actually went down in number overnight - hopefully this continues to be very low.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17, 12, 20, 15

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Kinkster90210

I don't give a fuck, cunt-face. You were responding to MY post about the rising exponential curve in the US, not in Texas. So, your diversion about Texas doesn't mean squat.




The number of hospitalizations? Who cares? The data cited from the Johns Hopkins website discusses TOTAL cases, deaths, and recoveries.


Both deaths and hospitalizations are irrelevant for figuring out where we are because they are WAY behind the actual case count. It can take a week or more from the time a person tests positive until the time they get seriously sick and/or die.


So, deaths and hospitalizations are too low. It takes them a week to catch up and in the meantime, the true number of new infections has doubled from last week.


See how that works?


If people got violently sick within 24 hours of being infected, there wouldn't be much of a discrepancy. But there is because of the long time period before symptoms show up.

You stupid, inelastic engineer - learn to be a little more creative.

I'm comparing the number of cases at this point in the curve to what they had in New York and they were jumping up in positive cases and deaths at a much higher rate two weeks ago so perhaps that is evidence we won't be nearly as bad off as them.

The hospitalizations are a true count of the cross section of the population that is sick. The number of positively tested cases undercounts all the people who are sick but don't get tested. Every mother fucker who is sick enough goes to the hospital - get it?

The positive cases of two weeks ago should roughly correspond to the demand on hospital resources now so that is why real statisticians would look at those numbers as well.

What kind of a shithole school gave you graduate degrees in engineering?

You butt into my remarks and claim I was responding to you?

FWIW - look at the ratio of positive tests to tests taken - in all the problem states they have very high ratios of more than 20% of all tests turn out positive.

In the states without a crises, only about 10% of the people being tested test positive. Could be a lot of reasons for that - including that we have a better run healthcare system than NYC - and so do many others.

[friendly fred]

In 15 days from the first 3 deaths, New York, with only 2/3rd's the population of Texas, went up to 1218 deaths.

In 15 days since the first 3 deaths in Texas, we are up to 90 deaths.

source: https://covidtracking.com/

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

In 15 days from the first 3 deaths, New York, with only 2/3rd's the population of Texas, went up to 1218 deaths.

In 15 days since the first 3 deaths in Texas, we are up to 90 deaths.

source: https://covidtracking.com/

It's hard to compare the population of NY vs. the population of Texas.

43% of NY state's population live in the 305 square miles that make up NYC. 33 times larger than the 2nd most populous city in NY, Albany. About 90% of the coronavirus deaths in the state are in NYC. Many more are in surrounding counties.

Texas coronavirus deaths are the highest in Harris county -- 18% of total Texas deaths. Dallas at 15%.

Obviously population density is the major factor in the spread of the virus. If you've ever been in Manhattan during rush hour
you would fully understand. Since Texas is so sparsely populated per square mile than several other states, it will be interesting to see if the number of coronavirus deaths per capita are as high as other more densely populated states.

15 deaths in Texas yesterday due to the virus, up 14% in one day. 6,110 total cases, up 13% in one day. U.S. deaths in total up 16.8% in one day.

[Lucas McCain]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

If you've ever been in Manhattan during rush hour you would fully understand.

Well said. I work a lot in Manhattan. Everyone is on top of each other there. My biggest client is located in Times Square. It's a zoo there with the locals and the tourists. I also work a lot in downtown Houston. It's not nearly as bad as Manhattan, but you are definitely around a lot of people but it's a lot easier to keep your distance there than it is in NYC... it doesn't matter though to me right now because I won't be seeing any clients in person anytime soon for a while anyway.

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

You stupid, inelastic engineer - learn to be a little more creative.

I'm comparing the number of cases at this point in the curve to what they had in New York and they were jumping up in positive cases and deaths at a much higher rate two weeks ago so perhaps that is evidence we won't be nearly as bad off as them.

The hospitalizations are a true count of the cross section of the population that is sick. The number of positively tested cases undercounts all the people who are sick but don't get tested. Every mother fucker who is sick enough goes to the hospital - get it?

The positive cases of two weeks ago should roughly correspond to the demand on hospital resources now so that is why real statisticians would look at those numbers as well.

What kind of a shithole school gave you graduate degrees in engineering?

You butt into my remarks and claim I was responding to you?

FWIW - look at the ratio of positive tests to tests taken - in all the problem states they have very high ratios of more than 20% of all tests turn out positive.

In the states without a crises, only about 10% of the people being tested test positive. Could be a lot of reasons for that - including that we have a better run healthcare system than NYC - and so do many others.

Creative? Disregarding the bad evidence and cherry picking the good evidence is what you call creative? You are math and science illiterate.

And the death counts you cited over the last week show a definite upward trend and yet you cited a SINGLE overnight drop as evidence we are doing good? There was another drop earlier that week before it rebound with another rise. How about you wait for a full week of drops before you make any conclusions?

We have lower rates of infections (for now) because we are less crowded than NYC, not because we have a better healthcare system.

You keep making the same fucking mistake in every post. We are about 2-3 weeks behind NY because our population is not as dense and our housing is generally not large apartment buildings.

But the stupid ideas proposed in these threads that we don't need to socially distance will destroy that small advantage and we will end up with an inundated healthcare system as we catch up.

Fucktards that think bars should still be open and the sports teams should still be playing because we need to keep the economy going apparently learned nothing from Mardi Gras and New Orleans.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

It's hard to compare the population of NY vs. the population of Texas.

43% of NY state's population live in the 305 square miles that make up NYC. 33 times larger than the 2nd most populous city in NY, Albany. About 90% of the coronavirus deaths in the state are in NYC. Many more are in surrounding counties.

Texas coronavirus deaths are the highest in Harris county -- 18% of total Texas deaths. Dallas at 15%.

Obviously population density is the major factor in the spread of the virus. If you've ever been in Manhattan during rush hour
you would fully understand. Since Texas is so sparsely populated per square mile than several other states, it will be interesting to see if the number of coronavirus deaths per capita are as high as other more densely populated states.

15 deaths in Texas yesterday due to the virus, up 14% in one day. 6,110 total cases, up 13% in one day. U.S. deaths in total up 16.8% in one day.

I agree with what you are saying except that deaths went down in Texas. We had 20 the day before.

I lived in Manhattan at one point so yes, the traffic during rush hour sucks.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Creative? Disregarding the bad evidence and cherry picking the good evidence is what you call creative? You are math and science illiterate.

And the death counts you cited over the last week show a definite upward trend and yet you cited a SINGLE overnight drop as evidence we are doing good? There was another drop earlier that week before it rebound with another rise. How about you wait for a full week of drops before you make any conclusions?

We have lower rates of infections (for now) because we are less crowded than NYC, not because we have a better healthcare system.

You keep making the same fucking mistake in every post. We are about 2-3 weeks behind NY because our population is not as dense and our housing is generally not large apartment buildings.

But the stupid ideas proposed in these threads that we don't need to socially distance will destroy that small advantage and we will end up with an inundated healthcare system as we catch up.

Fucktards that think bars should still be open and the sports teams should still be playing because we need to keep the economy going apparently learned nothing from Mardi Gras and New Orleans.

Apparently, you are another engineer who thinks he is smarter than everyone else and that we can't do simple math if we aren't an engineer.

To begin with, I have put multiple disclaimers on my posts saying we don't have enough data to say we do or do not have a problem in Texas - we need another week to know for sure, but I'm hopeful we are not headed to the problem those unfortunates in NYC are facing.

I don't think we are - obviously a big reason is density. Second, although the data doesn't prove we have flattened the curve, I would say it is leaning more in the direction of California so far, which doesn't have a lot of deaths relative to both their overall population and significant population density. Still, comparing the death rates to New York over an identical time frame, albeit one that might or might not be out of phase could be instructive for the non rigid thinkers.

I'm willing to bet we end up with significantly fewer cases, and I give Governor Abbott the credit for advocating social distancing, which is a good idea if the only goal is saving a few lives no matter what the cost. I also give Trump credit for blocking flights from China way back when de Blasio was advocating everyone go out to eat in the crowded and overpriced restaurants in the theatre district.

However, since the NBA sucks and it is a stupid game, I hope they cancel the whole season. (Have they cancelled it anyway? The only player I really ever liked was Shaq but I really don't pay much attention to the league)

The only bars I go to are strip clubs, so I'm fucked there, I hope they survive but maybe we can get the pretty girls back rather than the fat girls who survive giving $100 blow jobs to idiots.

I think we should consider quarantining the old folks and getting back to work with masks on and not be a bunch of pussies just because a few old fat fucks might die a month earlier than they would have anyway.

You do realize almost 800 motherfuckers die everyday in Texas anyway, right? 15 died yesterday and I bet most were old, unhealthy and ready to go. Is it worth trillions in economic losses our grandchildren will have to work years to pay off on the chance a few less people get sick and die a month early?

[Revenant]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Update:
Positive cases each day:

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse
(4669-3997)/3997 = 16.8% increase - not exponential
(5330-4669)/4669 = 14.2% increase - 2 straight days of a lower increase
(6110-5330)/5330 = 14.6% increase - flattened yet?

Wow, you are one dumb fuck. Your own data indicates exponential growth.

Do you not realize that you are comparing the percent change from the previous day? But the daily totals are COMPOUNDING each day using that method.

If something goes up every day 10% over the previous day, that is exponential growth, NOT linear growth. If it's linear it's the same growth rate each day compared to the STARTING date.

Assume a starting point of 1000 and increase 10% each day from 1000. You will get:

1000, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1400, 1500, 1600, 1700....

That is a STRAIGHT line plotted over a 7 day period.

Now compare a 10% rise over the PREVIOUS day:

1000, 1100, 1210, 1331, 1464.1, 1610.5, 1771,6, 1948.7. That is a PARABOLIC curve - a rising exponential. In only 7 days you have an additional 248.7 cases compared to linear growth. And that is only with a 10% growth rate. Imagine a growth rate where it doubles in a time period (i.e., 100% increase vs. 10% )

Compare your Day 2 growth rate (13.5%) to your Day 5 growth rate (14.2%). They shouldn't be very different, right?

Day 2 was 3266-2877 = 389
Day 5 was 5330-4669 = 661

How the hell could 14.2% be THAT much bigger than 13.5%? They are only 0.7% different, right?

389 is 13.5% of 2877.

But 14.2% of 2877 is only 408.5.

It is NOT 661.

Your data indicates exponential growth and you are citing it as NOT being exponential growth. Flattening the curve even.

I'm not an engineer, but I do know math from business management.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Wow, you are one dumb fuck. Your own data indicates exponential growth.

Do you not realize that you are comparing the percent change from the previous day? But the daily totals are COMPOUNDING each day using that method.

If something goes up every day 10% over the previous day, that is exponential growth, NOT linear growth. If it's linear it's the same growth rate each day compared to the STARTING date.

Assume a starting point of 1000 and increase 10% each day from 1000. You will get:

1000, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1400, 1500, 1600, 1700....

That is a STRAIGHT line plotted over a 7 day period.

Now compare a 10% rise over the PREVIOUS day:

1000, 1100, 1210, 1331, 1464.1, 1610.5, 1771,6, 1948.7. That is a PARABOLIC curve - a rising exponential. In only 7 days you have an additional 248.7 cases compared to linear growth. And that is only with a 10% growth rate. Imagine a growth rate where it doubles in a time period (i.e., 100% increase vs. 10% )

Compare your Day 2 growth rate (13.5%) to your Day 5 growth rate (14.2%). They shouldn't be very different, right?

Day 2 was 3266-2877 = 389
Day 5 was 5330-4669 = 661

How the hell could 14.2% be THAT much bigger than 13.5%? They are only 0.7% different, right?

389 is 13.5% of 2877.

But 14.2% of 2877 is only 408.5.

It is NOT 661.

Your data indicates exponential growth and you are citing it as NOT being exponential growth. Flattening the curve even.

I'm not an engineer, but I do know math from business management.

Fuck you - I'm talking about the rate of increase each day!

Also, go look at the historical data for California and compare that to Texas and New York - if we are in phase with them at the same early stage, ours looks more like California.

[Lucas McCain]

Originally Posted by Revenant

Creative? Disregarding the bad evidence and cherry picking the good evidence is what you call creative? You are math and science illiterate.

Many don't use simple common sense with their claims. Everything is not apples to apples. You can't compare living in NY to living in TX. That's just fucking stupid. I live in DFW. I can't compare that to living in NYC. That's comparing apples to oranges. I live in a house and I drive. I'm neither on a train nor on a subway and riding up and down elevators with people on a daily basis to get to and from home like most do in NYC. Again, it's apples to oranges and just simple fucking common sense.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

Many don't use simple common sense with their claims. Everything is not apples to apples. You can't compare living in NY to living in TX. That's just fucking stupid. I live in DFW. I can't compare that to living in NYC. That's comparing apples to oranges. I live in a house and I drive. I'm not on a train or on a subway and riding up elevators with people on a daily basis to get to and from home like most do in NYC. Again, it's apples to oranges and just simple fucking common sense.

You are missing the point - the very reason I'm saying we should have a better result (not as bad as NYC) is because we are not like New York City in population density.

I expect considerably fewer deaths here in Texas. I have lived in that filthy fucking hellhole of Manhattan so I'm well aware of the differences.

I like Dallas much better which is why I live here. Plus, there are fewer assholes like you here in Dallas.