Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Do you know how 538 operates? They’re not pollsters. They’re statisticians. They take an average what the pollsters put out. Garbage in, garbage out. That’s why they were so far off the 2016 Election. The age of Trump is much different. Pollsters haven’t quite figured it out yet. Here’s another offer Speedy, I say the Republicans hold the House. You in?
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I can't find FiveThirtyEight's 2016 forecast for the House. They do use polls in their modeling but rely on other input also. In 2008 Nate Silver predicted Obama winning 349 electoral votes. He got 365. 49 out of 50 states called correctly. In 2012 Nate Silver did better -- 50 out of 50 states called correctly!!
So we'll find out in 33 days which prediction was the anomaly by FiveThirtyEight -- 2016 or 2008/2012.