Quote:
Originally Posted by eccielover
And that is sadly not based on any factual estimate at all. Lots of POTUS's have taken a loss or even what was it a "shellacking" in their first midterm in regards to the House in various states and then continued on to re-election in those very same states. Trump actually gained in the Senate which was also against the norm.
It's early and the pundits are already trying to call it.  |
It's an educated guess at this point in time. FACT -- Trump won the popular vote in those 3 states by less than 1%. FACT -- Democratic candidates for Senator and Governor in those 3 states won easily, some displacing incumbents. Several House districts flipped from red to blue. FACT -- Trump's approval rating in those 3 states has dropped from around +10% in January 2017 to around -10% in January 2019.
What is significant is that the voter turnout for the 2018 midterm elections was 49.3%, the highest percentage turnout for a midterm election since 1914. Certainly Donald Trump is to thank for that. Voters on both sides were energized. My guess is that the 2020 election turnout will surpass the 60.1% turnout in 2016. Who that will favor is up for debate.
You are certainly correct in that it is way to early to make cast-in-stone predictions. But it is fun to discuss the various issues surrounding the 2020 election. Beats the other discussions going on in my opinion.
