6 of 10 disapproval for Trump

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Precious_b

Are you saying he's shooting for early lame duck status?

Interesting choice of words there, precious!

[69in2it69]

More like Peking duck the way China has him under control. Anybody notice Cuomo after Trump endorsed him? "He's not endorsing me, he's opposing Mamdani".... run Forrest run!!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Well, of course it'll be after Tuesday. Doubtful it'll be soon though.

I made my prediction as to when they will vote that way. It ain't this week or next.

I'll offer you the same deal I offered Salty. If the 60+ Senators do not vote to fund the government and end the shutdown by the end of next week, being 11:59 PM EST on Saturday, November 15, then I'll back you up for a week. You can say Gary Johnson is a mother fucker, and I'll do my best to help you make your case. And if you lose, then you'll do the same for me. The loser would be allowed to put a disclaimer at the bottom of posts, "I do not necessarily believe what I'm writing, and am posting this to honorably pay off my wager with Blackman (or Tiny.)"

This offer expires at 10:00 PM CST tonight.

I offered to do this for a month with Salty. He and I agree on more things so it would have been easier if I'd lost. That's why I'm proposing a week, as I believe a month might affect the loser's mental health. Salty declined the bet, but he would have won.

There's no utility in using the shutdown as a political football after the elections today. Most members of the uniparty want the government to get back to sloshing out the moolah. The only real exception is Rand Paul. Mike Lee, Ron Johnson and maybe Ted Cruz as well, but they're not going to stand up to Trump, who is almost as big a spendthrift as Nancy Pelosi. The Democrats want this over more than the Republicans. I bet there are at least 50% more Democrats who receive SNAP benefits or who work for the federal government than Republicans. The Democrats are hurting parts of their base. I don't see any way they'll draw this out to try to keep Trump's or Republicans' approval ratings low. This WILL almost undoubtedly be settled by the end of the month, and who's going to remember it come November of 2026 when elections roll around again.

[1blackman1]

Tiny, what you’re saying is nonsensical. Most of the SNAP payments go to red states, which by extension means to more republicans. But the shut down isn’t about SNAP.

I previously stated that the republicans will cave by claiming that they came to a compromise and that illegals won’t get the Medicaid benefits. Now the reality is that it doesn’t happen anyway but they will require some redundant language in the “compromise” bill stating it so they can have an off ramp from this and the extension CR will simply be what the Democrats requested in the first place.

Will this happen by Nov 15, I’ve no clue. I’m pretty sure though that there’s a closer to zero chance the Democrats agree to the CR without an wxtwnauon of the subsidies in place. Now could they be passed separately, sure, but it’d be foolish of the Democrats to not have the extension passes as part of the CR. I also don’t see how it happens by your date since John Mikie is afraid to bring the house back in session and risk the Epstein discharge petition getting tossed at him.

Interesting that you only want to bet on what happens on the senate side. I’ll bet ya the current CR doesn’t pass with a rider or attached legislation for an extension of the subsidies, signed by Trump on or before 11/15.

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Tiny, what you’re saying is nonsensical. Most of the SNAP payments go to blue cities

FTFY

[1blackman1]

Still wrong. Stop getting your news from Fox talking heads.

[Jacuzzme]

Not at all wrong. Urban centers are where the vast majority of wealth transfers go.

[Lantern2814]

The lefties love using percentages to lie about red states having more people on benefits. Reality says that 35% of California's population is a lot more people than even 55% of Mississippi or Alabama. Which results in a lot more money going those blue areas.

[1blackman1]

so you are just making up numbers. Who says that 10 million Californians are getting snap? In fact the number is closer to 5 million. But you cannot compare a state of 35 million to a state of 3 million like mississippi. But when you start adding up the poor red states to reach equal population, they exceed the number of people in blue states receiving benefits. Louisiana for example has 800,000 SNAP beneficiaries even though they have a population of 4.5 million.

Now, if you really go out and read, you will find that California sends more tax money to the federal government than it gets back in benefits whereas Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, all get back more money than they send to Washington. That has nothing to do with PERCENTAGES. If you send 10 dollars and get back 7, but someone else send 3 and gets back 4 dollars, that is simple math.

As for Jac, still wrong as always.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Tiny, what you’re saying is nonsensical. Most of the SNAP payments go to red states, which by extension means to more republicans. But the shut down isn’t about SNAP.

I previously stated that the republicans will cave by claiming that they came to a compromise and that illegals won’t get the Medicaid benefits. Now the reality is that it doesn’t happen anyway but they will require some redundant language in the “compromise” bill stating it so they can have an off ramp from this and the extension CR will simply be what the Democrats requested in the first place.

Will this happen by Nov 15, I’ve no clue. I’m pretty sure though that there’s a closer to zero chance the Democrats agree to the CR without an wxtwnauon of the subsidies in place. Now could they be passed separately, sure, but it’d be foolish of the Democrats to not have the extension passes as part of the CR. I also don’t see how it happens by your date since John Mikie is afraid to bring the house back in session and risk the Epstein discharge petition getting tossed at him.

Interesting that you only want to bet on what happens on the senate side. I’ll bet ya the current CR doesn’t pass with a rider or attached legislation for an extension of the subsidies, signed by Trump on or before 11/15.

Well Blackman, once the Senate passes the CR, I figure it's a done deal, and the timing just depends on how quickly Mike Johnson rounds up the Congressmen for a vote. However, in order to try to make a wager without paying any juice to the bastards at Polymarket, I'm willing to bet Trump will sign the legislation to reopen the government by 11:59 PM on Sunday, November 16 at 11:59 PM. You'd have to drop the qualifications about riders or extensions of subsidies though. This offer is good until high noon, Texas time, tomorrow.

You said this won't happen next week. And by the standard followed by the EU and the UN, a week doesn't start until Monday.

Think how sweet it will be if you win. If you say Lusty Lad is a redneck simpleton (which is totally not true), then I'd have support you. With the agreed upon disclaimer of course.

The only info I can find about the number of Republicans versus Democrats receiving SNAP benefits is from a 2013 Pew poll, which indicated Democrats are about 2X as likely as Republicans to have received food stamps.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-re...mp-recipients/

[1blackman1]

This aint 2013. SO that isn't exactly something reliable.

Trump is already setting his republican's up to fold. He just claimed that the two reasons Democrats won was 1) he is not on the ballot and 2) THE SHUT DOWN. So, that is an acknowledgment that the shutdown is hurting Republicans. That is his way to tell them to end the shut down and make it look like they got something out the deal.

And I made my offer. It isn't a negotiation. Take it or leave it.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

so you are just making up numbers. Who says that 10 million Californians are getting snap? In fact the number is closer to 5 million. But you cannot compare a state of 35 million to a state of 3 million like mississippi. But when you start adding up the poor red states to reach equal population, they exceed the number of people in blue states receiving benefits. Louisiana for example has 800,000 SNAP beneficiaries even though they have a population of 4.5 million.

Now, if you really go out and read, you will find that California sends more tax money to the federal government than it gets back in benefits whereas Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, all get back more money than they send to Washington. That has nothing to do with PERCENTAGES. If you send 10 dollars and get back 7, but someone else send 3 and gets back 4 dollars, that is simple math.

As for Jac, still wrong as always.

One percent of the population in California pays 40% of the income tax. That's true of the USA in general. And a Gallup poll indicated 57% of that 1% is Republican or leans Republican, compared to 36% who are Democrats or lean Democrat. So you've got Republicans disproportionately paying more of the cost for government and SNAP benefits.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/151310/...servative.aspx

Sorry to lean on another old poll again but it's the best I could find.

This is the kind of fire power I can bring to your side, for a week, if you take that bet and win!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

This aint 2013. SO that isn't exactly something reliable.

Trump is already setting his republican's up to fold. He just claimed that the two reasons Democrats won was 1) he is not on the ballot and 2) THE SHUT DOWN. So, that is an acknowledgment that the shutdown is hurting Republicans. That is his way to tell them to end the shut down and make it look like they got something out the deal.

And I made my offer. It isn't a negotiation. Take it or leave it.

I leave it! That would be a sucker bet.

[69in2it69]

States that receive more federal assistance than they contribute:


1 New Mexico
2 Mississippi
3 Louisiana
4 Kentucky
5 West Virginia
6 Alabama
7 Oregon
8 Tennessee
9 South Carolina
10 Arkansas


Break out the crayons and color the states red or blue and see what you get.

[1blackman1]

And I bet if were to add up the 8 of 10 RED states in that lists population, it would be greater than the population of California.

I'd hazard a guess that if you add up the number of residents of those 8 states that on SNAP, it would exceed the number of SNAP recipients in California as well.