economic downturn on the way......?

[txdot-guy]

The US economy is about 70 percent consumer spending. When people are afraid for their jobs, inflation, tariffs, the stock market, then they stop spending and start saving instead.

I think we’re in the beginning of a recession that’s going to be triggered by the uncertainty behind the tariffs or just the threat of tariffs. Which will be exacerbated by the DOGE cuts and executive branch chaos.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

...
Fedex cut their 2025 guidance dramatically
Walmart advises growth will be 1/3 of what was forecast
Dominos pizza showing a big decrease in deliveries
McDonalds offering a bleak year for 2025...

Personally, I don't see a broad based economic downturn being across the board equally (or is it equitably). These could also be the effects of the Progressives getting their money laundromats closed down, thanks to DOGE.

I wonder what the Rent-a-Riot unemployment rate looks like these days and projections for 2025.

No monies, no dinners ~ Ancient Chinese Proverb

[Unique_Carpenter]

On the way????

It's already here.

I'm glad we sold over 90% of our cattle before the Chinese blacklisted US meat wholesalers two weeks ago. Folks think we knew something, we were lucky and simply had another reason to sell.
Some of our local competition have started having cash flow issues.

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... And the DOGE savings thus offset the tariff threats.

#### Salty

And the dumpster needs to raise the deficit why exactly? It's not calculus, mate, it's grade school mathin'...

[ICU 812]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Food and delivery companies often indicate an early indicator of an economic slowdown.


Fedex cut their 2025 guidance dramatically
Walmart advises growth will be 1/3 of what was forecast
Dominos pizza showing a big decrease in deliveries
McDonalds offering a bleak year for 2025


And this is just the beginning of 2025, and what else will come.....

The Democrats know that the only thing that can help them in 2024 and "28 would be a crashed economy. So they nade a really big deal out of the price of eggs . . .and that mtic has fallen by 50% or more now and no one on the left celebrates it.

We will see if the President's international strategy of encouraging domestic investment will take effect in time to influence the midterms posativly. It may not and his agenda may falter because of that economic lag. The DOGE program os streamlining the beurocrcy may show a quickr benafit, though there will be a more immediate spike in unemployment.

I was a federal employee during one of the shutdowns in ther 1990s. I worked directly with patients at a VA hospital. When the shut down came and all "non essential" folks went home, it was erie to see how empty the place was. The place went from 2,500 (or so) employees on the day shift to maybe 500 oer noght. hat is a lot of n nssentikals!

I am sure that ovr the entire federal system, there are at least 30% who are just etra . . .from my own experience.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

On the way????

It's already here....

IMMHO, it's been here for quite a while.

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

...I'm glad we sold over 90% of our cattle before the Chinese blacklisted US meat wholesalers two weeks ago. Folks think we knew something, we were lucky and simply had another reason to sell.
Some of our local competition have started having cash flow issues.

If I carry one over from my big toe, and subtract a couple fingers from my left hand... that would mean beef prices to US consumers will be coming down in the short term.

Gonna need more wood for the smoker.

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

IMMHO, it's been here for quite a while.If I carry one over from my big toe, and subtract a couple fingers from my left hand... that would mean beef prices to US consumers will be coming down in the short term.

Gonna need more wood for the smoker.

Kinda short sighted there. "Cash flow issues" are not a positive sign for a business, in this case cattle farming. Businesses go under, supply goes down and price goes up.


Oh, but don't worry...the orange idiot is already preparing for bailouts like he had to do last time. You do know what that does to the deficit, right?

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by 69in2it69

Kinda short sighted there. "Cash flow issues" are not a positive sign for a business, in this case cattle farming. Businesses go under, supply goes down and price goes up...

Nor are they positive for a government and their politicians.

Farming and ranching ain't no longer run by a bunch-o-straw chewing hayseeds. In that, you are correct. You probably don't remember when they were yanking almond trees out of the ground in California either.

So Imma guessing they stocked up on inventory while prices were soaring, hoping to bang a big buck at the market. But like the stock market - it can giveth and it can taketh away.

[VitaMan]

I suppose consumers are going to start to run out and buy cars, because the prices are about to increase
by $ 1000s and $ 1000s of dollars.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

I suppose consumers are going to start to run out and buy cars, because the prices are about to increase
by $ 1000s and $ 1000s of dollars.

Actually, American cars should go down. Foreign jobbie-doos might as well if they roll back the tariffs they charge for importing our cars.

[VitaMan]

Why should they ? Many parts and components come from overseas.


According to the Yale Budget Lab, the president’s 25% auto tariffs will increase vehicle prices “by 13.5% on average, the equivalent of an additional $6,400 to the price of an average new 2024 car.”

[Mplay]

Not making this political. This country is screwed no matter what. This debt doesn’t go away without huge ramifications.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... Have you seen the FALLING prices of eggs and petrol-gas??
Grocery prices did NOT rise last month.... Starting to FALL.

See? ... "economic downturn" NOT happening! ...

#### Salty

Only thing that has been notably falling is consumer confidence. And for good reason.

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Inflation numbers came in higher than expected today.


Your local grocery prices mean nothing.

NaCl-y calls that winning.

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Market down another 700 points today.


While everyone waits as Trump conducts his experiments on the economy, and creates more and more uncertainty.

That would be double winning to the salty one.

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... And the DOGE savings thus offset the tariff threats.

#### Salty

Can you show us the detailed breakdown of those numbers. Seems that whenever they state something, it is most often deleted/retracted when fact checked. You know. That think maggies don't like having done to them when they open their mouth.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Personally, I don't see <blah blah blah>

We already know you rub vaseline over your glasses. Vision is your most failable sense.

Originally Posted by VitaMan

I suppose consumers are going to start to run out and buy cars, because the prices are about to increase
by $ 1000s and $ 1000s of dollars.

I did. But that was months ago.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Actually, American cars should go down. Foreign jobbie-doos might as well if they roll back the tariffs they charge for importing our cars.

... and it was a foreign one.

[VitaMan]

Now Trump is intent on wrecking many sectors of the economy at once.

Unprecedented. But that is Trump...always using a wrecking ball, whether in words, name calling, or actions.

He could go down as the worst President in history....by far.

[VitaMan]

Trump has managed to lose 3,800 points on the Dow since inauguration.


And yes, you can relate that directly to what he has done.