TACO Wednesday

[1blackman1]

90 deals in 90 days.

Well ok, 2 deals in principle that changed nothing.

Now Trump is really serious, August 1 will be massive tariff’s day if countries don’t come make a deal.

Seems everyone knows Trump Always Chickens Out.

[Yssup Rider]

Kick the can, Demented Donnie.

Don’t trip.

His mouth wrote yet another check his fat ass can’t cash.

It would probably bounce anyway

[Tiny]

TACO? Does that mean Trump wisely folds when he doesn’t have the cards? How many dead people would still be alive if LBJ chickened out? Or George W. Bush?

[Lucas McCain]

Thanks for the deep wisdom, Tiny. Didn't know that had jack and shit to do with Trump and his wishy-washy tariff deadlines... by the way, it's easy to fold when your hand sucks and other countries know it and they keep calling your bluff.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

Thanks for the deep wisdom, Tiny. Didn't know that had jack and shit to do with Trump and his wishy-washy tariff deadlines... by the way, it's easy to fold when your hand sucks and other countries know it and they keep calling your bluff.

Et tu, McCain? I leave here for 2 weeks and when I come back you're a member of the topic police too.

Do you really want to see 100%+ tariffs on China and 20% to 50% tariffs on Europe and our Asian trading partners? You don't think he should be extending the deadlines and lowering the rates?

This is Trump's negotiating style. He makes maximalist demands and statements. He'll take ten steps forward. And when people put up a howl, he'll take seven steps back. Nobody notices he's three steps ahead of where we started.

The problem here though, with the trade wars, is that he took ten steps BACKWARDS initially and now is in the process of retracing part of that. I may be the biggest free trader on here btw. I don't think the USA should have the tariffs on any products that aren't strategically important. I'd love to see him totally chicken out on tariffs.

As to the analogy to wars and foreign policy, look at what he did with North Korea. Take a look at I Am the Ironman's "bomb the shit out of Moscow" thread. Kim launched an ICBM and Trump threatened to blow the country off the planet. Then using the carrot and the stick, Trump got on a path to normalize relations. Kim launched no intermediate or long range ballistic missiles during the remainder of Trump's term. Contrast with George W. Bush, whose decisions spilled millions of lives and trillions of dollars, AFTER we'd already established there were no WMD's in Iraq. After Saddam had opened the country up to inspectors because of Bush's threats. And what was all this for? So people wouldn't say BACO?

I'd much prefer a president who chickens out to one who proceeds full throttle with harmful policies.

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Et tu, McCain? I leave here for 2 weeks and when I come back you're a member of the topic police too.

Do you really want to see 100%+ tariffs on China and 20% to 50% tariffs on Europe and our Asian trading partners? You don't think he should be extending the deadlines and lowering the rates?

This is Trump's negotiating style. He makes maximalist demands and statements. He'll take ten steps forward. And when people put up a howl, he'll take seven steps back. Nobody notices he's three steps ahead of where we started.

The problem here though, with the trade wars, is that he took ten steps BACKWARDS initially and now is in the process of retracing part of that. I may be the biggest free trader on here btw. I don't think the USA should have the tariffs on any products that aren't strategically important. I'd love to see him totally chicken out on tariffs.

As to the analogy to wars and foreign policy, look at what he did with North Korea. Take a look at I Am the Ironman's "bomb the shit out of Moscow" thread. Kim launched an ICBM and Trump threatened to blow the country off the planet. Then using the carrot and the stick, Trump got on a path to normalize relations. Kim launched no intermediate or long range ballistic missiles during the remainder of Trump's term. Contrast with George W. Bush, whose decisions spilled millions of lives and trillions of dollars, AFTER we'd already established there were no WMD's in Iraq. After Saddam had opened the country up to inspectors because of Bush's threats. And what was all this for? So people wouldn't say BACO?

I'd much prefer a president who chickens out to one who proceeds full throttle with harmful policies.

The problem is he really believes the other country PAYs the tarrif. And nobody can (or will) explain reality to him.


For reference: A tariff or import tax is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer.



I caught part of some footage of him being questioned about it and he went on a tangent about how the US used to be tariffs only, no income tax back in the 1700/1800s. Guess what TACO, people back then couldn't reach into their pocket, pull out a thing called a phone, open a thing called an app that connects to an internet (another thing missing from those times) and order a product from Asia and have it received in 48-72 hours. Times have changed and his mental decline has him stuck in some long gone past.


He can't negotiate because he has no bargaining power. 100% tariff on China, the US economy tanks, Trumps approval tanks, China finds alternate markets for their products. I bet all that and Trump ending up looking like a complete idiot has Xi shaking and unable to sleep at night.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 69in2it69

The problem is he really believes the other country PAYs the tarrif. And nobody can (or will) explain reality to him.


For reference: A tariff or import tax is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer.



I caught part of some footage of him being questioned about it and he went on a tangent about how the US used to be tariffs only, no income tax back in the 1700/1800s. Guess what TACO, people back then couldn't reach into their pocket, pull out a thing called a phone, open a thing called an app that connects to an internet (another thing missing from those times) and order a product from Asia and have it received in 48-72 hours. Times have changed and his mental decline has him stuck in some long gone past.


He can't negotiate because he has no bargaining power. 100% tariff on China, the US economy tanks, Trumps approval tanks, China finds alternate markets for their products. I bet all that and Trump ending up looking like a complete idiot has Xi shaking and unable to sleep at night.

I don't think it's dementia. Trump's thought like this all his life, just like Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, and my father for that matter. He views trade as a zero sum game. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

I spoke with an executive of an Asian manufacturing company a few nights ago whose company has factories in China, Vietnam and Cambodia. His money's on China coming out of this with the lowest tariffs. Why? Because it can play the rare earth elements card. I suspect he's wrong, but that's certainly plausible.

[royamcr]

Originally Posted by 69in2it69

The problem is he really believes the other country PAYs the tarrif. And nobody can (or will) explain reality to him.


For reference: A tariff or import tax is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer.



I caught part of some footage of him being questioned about it and he went on a tangent about how the US used to be tariffs only, no income tax back in the 1700/1800s. Guess what TACO, people back then couldn't reach into their pocket, pull out a thing called a phone, open a thing called an app that connects to an internet (another thing missing from those times) and order a product from Asia and have it received in 48-72 hours. Times have changed and his mental decline has him stuck in some long gone past.


He can't negotiate because he has no bargaining power. 100% tariff on China, the US economy tanks, Trumps approval tanks, China finds alternate markets for their products. I bet all that and Trump ending up looking like a complete idiot has Xi shaking and unable to sleep at night.

I'm pretty sure he knows who pays tariffs but he keeps trying to convince the magats that China pays the tariffs, or whatever other country we get stuff from.

Reality is 100% or 150% tariffs wont do shit. It just means a $2 product now costs $4. When American company imports it and sells it for $30 the marginal difference is $2. At scale this is a big number, but reality is it would cost $20 to produce in the US. Chinese tariffs would have to hit 500% to maybe 1000 to move the needle in getting companies to manufacture here. Trump will be history in 3 years, hopefully sooner, but no company is going to commit to moving manufacturing until after 2028 when tariffs could be lifted due to a new administration.

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by royamcr

I'm pretty sure he knows who pays tariffs but he keeps trying to convince the magats that China pays the tariffs, or whatever other country we get stuff from.

Reality is 100% or 150% tariffs wont do shit. It just means a $2 product now costs $4. When American company imports it and sells it for $30 the marginal difference is $2. At scale this is a big number, but reality is it would cost $20 to produce in the US. Chinese tariffs would have to hit 500% to maybe 1000 to move the needle in getting companies to manufacture here. Trump will be history in 3 years, hopefully sooner, but no company is going to commit to moving manufacturing until after 2028 when tariffs could be lifted due to a new administration.

Manufacturing is never coming back. Never. And it's not just the price bump that's going to disrupt things...ships don't travel with one container, it sits. That's not a price increase, it's empty shelves and THAT will have a huge impact on his legacy. Supply shortages not because of a global pandemic but because he's an idiot.

[eyecu2]

Originally Posted by Tiny

This is Trump's negotiating style. He makes maximalist demands and statements. He'll take ten steps forward. And when people put up a howl, he'll take seven steps back. Nobody notices he's three steps ahead of where we started.

I'd much prefer a president who chickens out to one who proceeds full throttle with harmful policies.

Tiny,

I can appreciate the fact that if there are some tariffs vs. zero, they are to the benefit of the american people. Sadly- I don't know that it will create a benefit for anyone but government in the form of filling up coffers- cause they sure as shit are dropping taxes on the middle class. And those tariffs are going EVENTUALLY get passed down through to the end users purchasers.

My biggers concern is all the rattling and maximist extremism of tariff demands; it's the kind of thing that creates ripples in the economy pond, from interest rates, stock values, and ultimately sidelining people from being a buyer or seller of goods and services. Say if you're a homebuilder- and your looking at home sales- if all the sudden lumber costs go sky high due to tariffs, or even up 10-15-30%, that house just got more expensive. No matter what interest rates end up doing- unless you are cash buyer- there is going to be a decline in housing starts with all this type of asking for a 100% when you only really needed 10-15. It just smacks of a junior high mentality of approaching countries- vs. a specific plan and preparation for justification. Economies like that steady Eddie approach vs. the TACO-Max style.


Hopefully all this nonsense gets wrapped up sooner than later- although who knows what the next damned thing Trump will start focusing on afterwards.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

Hopefully all this nonsense gets wrapped up sooner than later- although who knows what the next damned thing Trump will start focusing on afterwards.

--------------------

... So America telling the other nations who charge tariffs
that NOW American is gonna charge tariffs also - is somehow
nonsense and BAD thing??

... The whole concept is to get the other nations to LOWER
their tariff costs on America's goods.

... And President Trump is the fellow to get this done.

Did Clinton do that? ... Biden? ... OBama? ... Bush??
Or did they just PAY the tariff costs??

#### Salty

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

--------------------

... So America telling the other nations who charge tariffs
that NOW American is gonna charge tariffs also - is somehow
nonsense and BAD thing??

... The whole concept is to get the other nations to LOWER
their tariff costs on America's goods.

... And President Trump is the fellow to get this done.

Did Clinton do that? ... Biden? ... OBama? ... Bush??
Or did they just PAY the tariff costs??

#### Salty

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahah

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

--------------------

... So America telling the other nations who charge tariffs
that NOW American is gonna charge tariffs also - is somehow
nonsense and BAD thing??

... The whole concept is to get the other nations to LOWER
their tariff costs on America's goods.

... And President Trump is the fellow to get this done.

Did Clinton do that? ... Biden? ... OBama? ... Bush??
Or did they just PAY the tariff costs??

#### Salty

You are ECCIE’s greatest economic mind bar none.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

Tiny,

I can appreciate the fact that if there are some tariffs vs. zero, they are to the benefit of the american people. Sadly- I don't know that it will create a benefit for anyone but government in the form of filling up coffers- cause they sure as shit are dropping taxes on the middle class. And those tariffs are going EVENTUALLY get passed down through to the end users purchasers.

Eyecu2, this tax is more regressive than you might think. An executive with a Chinese manufacturer told me they sell products to (a) higher end brands and (b) Walmart. He believes the Chinese supply chain and the American brands will bear the tariffs about 50/50. On the other hand, they are already selling to Walmart at rock bottom prices. They can't cut prices any more without losing money. Also Walmart's margins are very low so it can't cut prices either. So Walmart Shoppers, that is to say, the American middle class, takes it on the chin.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Seems everyone knows Trump Always Chickens Out.

The Financial Times is running a story today where they say actually it's the Europeans, Asians, etc. who are chickening out. China and Canada are the only countries that have stood up to the USA and imposed retaliatory tariffs. China's playing the rare earth elements card too.

Europe may in the end follow China's and Canada's path, but the rest of the world has "chickened out" (the FT's words) and their products sold to the USA will bear 20% or 30% tariffs or whatever, while they continue to impose much lower tariffs on American imports.

Just as I don't agree with you on this point, I don't agree with the FT. Other countries aren't chickening out, just being wise. If they can continue to buy certain American products for much less than what it would cost to produce them at home, why should they jack the price up with tariffs? Take high end integrated circuits only made in America for example. If they impose 50% tariffs, then their manufacturers can't compete in world markets in selling high end electronics that require American IC's.

Maybe this analogy will make more sense. Say we're both married and both our wives are hookers. I'm banging your wife and paying her $300 a pop and you're doing the same with mine. However, mine isn't attractive, so you're only paying her $50. We're both banging them once a week. Therefore the Tiny family is running a $250 per week trade deficit with the Blackman family.

Your old lady is one fine hooker, my ATF, and I'm addicted to her charms. At some point I get tired of transferring my wealth to the Blackman family, so I chop off my testicles. Now, are you going to chop off your testicles so you're not compelled to fuck my wife? Hell no. That would be stupid. It wouldn't be "chickening out."