Ebola in Central Texas

[Puccipleaser]

So one of the hospital workers who handled samples is on a Carnival cruise?! So nobody thought it might be a good idea for that worker to be monitored? SMH. This whole situation is disgusting! To many agencies are picking and choosing what is a concern and what is not. Any and everything should be a priority that was associated with Duncan. Until we have facts, and not speculations, this should be dealt with the highest priority and the utmost care.

[Toyz]

Originally Posted by Puccipleaser

So one of the hospital workers who handled samples is on a Carnival cruise?! So nobody thought it might be a good idea for that worker to be monitored? SMH. This whole situation is disgusting! To many agencies are picking and choosing what is a concern and what is not. Any and everything should be a priority that was associated with Duncan. Until we have facts, and not speculations, this should be dealt with the highest priority and the utmost care.

Hmmm...let me see. I've just been in close proximity with the most deadly virus currently dangering mankind....where can I have the most random contacts possible?

A cruise? Yah, a cruise...

[fun2come]

Originally Posted by Toyz

Hmmm...let me see. I've just been in close proximity with the most deadly virus currently dangering mankind....where can I have the most random contacts possible?

A cruise? Yah, a cruise...

Actually that might be pretty smart ... 2 weeks in "isolation" on a cruise ship ... all of them
On the other hand ... think about it.... easy to contain .... think Titanic ...

do I need to SMH again... no still dizzy

[Toyz]

Originally Posted by fun2come

Actually that might be pretty smart ... 2 weeks in "isolation" on a cruise ship ... all of them
On the other hand ... think about it.... easy to contain .... think Titanic ...

do I need to SMH again... no still dizzy

It was a three hour cruise...a three hour cruise..

Now the ships washed up on the shore of this uncharted dessert aisle...with Fun to Come, Still Looking too

.

If u don't get that...well u r too damn young.

[Centaur]

Originally Posted by Toyz

And it's the MINIMIZERS that scare me the most Centaur. The ones that say "oh the chances are small".

All I AM saying is the CDC and Washington are not reacting properly and we...as a people...should not parrot what we hear like the minions we've become.

Oh, I don't think the chances of an epidemic are small. I don't think we know enough to know what the chances of one are. Right now you're vastly more likely to buy the farm any myriad of other ways. If it isn't contained...well, the Spanish Flu made WWII look like a slow day at the morgue. Ebola isn't currently nearly as contagious, as far as medial experts tell us - I think it would be hard to keep that big a secret among civilian scientists (being one of them, albeit in a non-biological discipline) - but it's still a very real and major threat. Citizens can take precautions so that if there is an outbreak they stand a slightly better chance, but there isn't a lot (as far as I know anyway) that we can do to contain an outbreak other than put pressure on our government to do it.

People tend to assess risk with emotion. Pessimists panic. Optimists whistle Dixie. Not a lot of people want to take a cold hard look at what imperils them or their world. That's just human nature.

[fun2come]

Originally Posted by Toyz

It was a three hour cruise...a three hour cruise..

Now the ships washed up on the shore of this uncharted dessert aisle...with Fun to Come, Still Looking too

.

If u don't get that...well u r too damn young.

Damn I am old ...

[Toyz]

Originally Posted by Centaur

Oh, I don't think the chances of an epidemic are small. I don't think we know enough to know what the chances of one are. Right now you're vastly more likely to buy the farm any myriad of other ways. If it isn't contained...well, the Spanish Flu made WWII look like a slow day at the morgue. Ebola isn't currently nearly as contagious, as far as medial experts tell us - I think it would be hard to keep that big a secret among civilian scientists (being one of them, albeit in a non-biological discipline) - but it's still a very real and major threat. Citizens can take precautions so that if there is an outbreak they stand a slightly better chance, but there isn't a lot (as far as I know anyway) that we can do to contain an outbreak other than put pressure on our government to do it.

People tend to assess risk with emotion. Pessimists panic. Optimists whistle Dixie. Not a lot of people want to take a cold hard look at what imperils them or their world. That's just human nature.

Therein lies the base of my concerns. We don't know. Yet we hear "all is well, do not fear".

I don't think this could ever be like the global wipeout chronicled in the fictional account "The Stand" by Stephen King. But the parellels are there. How a few random carriers spread the disease.

IF there is an outbreak, that's how it will happen...do the simple math of the girl in the plane...how many was she in proximity to, and then, of those, ow many more? And on and on.

We are told...with pompous sincerity...all the must dos in order to contract the disease...a certain temperature...down to the tenth of a degree...before someone is deemed "able to pass the virus".

To me, at least, there are too many absolutes being stated as fact. On a disease we have never dealt with on this continent. I would prefer a few more "we just don't know, and therefore we are blocking all incoming flights from those three countries until we DO know more".

[Centaur]

Originally Posted by Toyz

I would prefer a few more "we just don't know, and therefore we are blocking all incoming flights from those three countries until we DO know more".

I can get behind that. The cautionary principle is always relevant when dealing with potentially hazardous unknowns.

[GneissGuy]

Originally Posted by Toyz

"Only contractable from bodily fluid"

How do we know that?

Because our friends in the media have told us that, and they are never wrong...

"No one here will contract this because we are taking all precautions"

Again...from our media. How'd that work out for us?

I'm being smartassed for a reason EJ. I would submit that we DON'T know as much about this disease as we think. I would further submit that the nurses not being contained is quite possibly just the tip of the iceberg.

Also...sweat is a "bodily fluid" is it not? And why is snot that's sneezed on you not a bodily fluid?

I don't think we are being told the whole truth because they don't KNOW the whole truth.

Nothing's scarier than people who talk in absolutes... (There is NO danger....we will NOT catch this).

Never trust the government.

However, just stop and think about it.

Ebola is not new. We've known about it since 1976. There have been several outbreaks. We've watched how it spreads. It hasn't spread the way flu or colds spread, even in third world countries with terrible hygiene and health care.

In the 30 years we've been studying it, it only seems to have spread through contact with vomit, blood or feces of the seriously ill victims. Unsanitary funeral preparations of Ebola victims have been a large part of the problem.

Let's assume for the moment that it actually can spread through less intimate contact. If it CAN spread that way at all, it doesn't seem to happen very often. It's not likely to spread widely among the general population that way.

Don't forget that for a disease to spread and become widespread, the average victim has to infect more than one other victim. If not, the number of victims in each "generation" gets smaller and smaller.

[Toyz]

Points made and accepted.

Since 1976 it has never been here.

Now it is...maybe it burns out. I sure hope it does, don't you?

If we had restricted the flights in from Liberia there's a great chance we wouldn't be locking down schools, two innocent nurses would not be in specialized hospitals and hundreds of people wouldn't be on quarantine watch.

[Bobave]

Originally Posted by 7Dust

Cause the rest of humanity can go fuck themselves?
Jesus only loves Americans?
smh

Unless you're volunteering to go to Liberia and care for infectious cases personally, this sanctimonious crap is hypocritical, holier-than-thou bullshit.

[GneissGuy]

All this hype is going to do is make things worse.

A year from now, when all this hype has blown over, and maybe a handful of people have caught Ebola in the US, the American sheeple will decide that it's all hype and they don't have to worry about it the next time there's a warning about some sort of disease outbreak.

When something real comes along, it will get ignored.

It will be like the people in New Orleans deciding to not worry about Katrina because they thought the hurricane talk was just hype.

We've already got all the dipshits letting their kids die and kill others because of all the vaccine denier nonsense.

Yes, there's some chance you'll get Ebola from hobby activities here in the US. You're a thousand times more likely to die from your hobby partner giving you the flu. There are an average of 20,000 flu deaths a year in the US. That's more than the total known worldwide deaths from Ebola for all time. So far, there appear to be 2 or 3 cases of Ebola transmission in the US.

You're a lot more likely to be killed in an accident driving to the appointment.

[Toyz]

[QUOTE=GneissGuy;1055932649]
There are an average of 20,000 flu deaths a year in the US.
QUOTE]

Hey Gneiss, we are just talking so don't take this as a slam on you...you bring interesting and respective commentary so I am motivated to discussion.

Tell me this...what is the mortality rate of the average flu you speak of above?

Now....lets say ebola goes airborne...and by all accounts its not YET, but has a minor chance to mutate.

Lets infect 100,00 people with ebola and an equal number with flu...

how many more die from ebola? (its a math quiz and not a trick question).

This isn't the flu. Its a 50-90% death sentence. And of that 20K deaths, how many are pre existing extenuating circumstanes such as an elderly person. What would be the mortality percentile of ebola in an elderly population sample?

To me its just common sense...lessen the contact with POTENTIAL ebola carriers and you lessen the infection rate. As ebola (currently) only has a source pool in a few African countries why the fuck would you allow the borders open for it to get a foothold in our country if you have the power to largely prevent it?

Its a no brainer...

WHY do you and others feel it such an invasion of rights to restrict flights from those three countries? Whats the big deal? Please answer this one.

[GneissGuy]

[QUOTE=Toyz;1055932757]

Originally Posted by GneissGuy

There are an average of 20,000 flu deaths a year in the US.
QUOTE]

Hey Gneiss, we are just talking so don't take this as a slam on you...you bring interesting and respective commentary so I am motivated to discussion.

Tell me this...what is the mortality rate of the average flu you speak of above?

Now....lets say ebola goes airborne...and by all accounts its not YET, but has a minor chance to mutate.

Lets infect 100,00 people with ebola and an equal number with flu...

how many more die from ebola? (its a math quiz and not a trick question).

This isn't the flu. Its a 50-90% death sentence. And of that 20K deaths, how many are pre existing extenuating circumstanes such as an elderly person. What would be the mortality percentile of ebola in an elderly population sample?

To me its just common sense...lessen the contact with POTENTIAL ebola carriers and you lessen the infection rate. As ebola (currently) only has a source pool in a few African countries why the fuck would you allow the borders open for it to get a foothold in our country if you have the power to largely prevent it?

Its a no brainer...

WHY do you and others feel it such an invasion of rights to restrict flights from those three countries? Whats the big deal? Please answer this one.

The point is that you're not at all likely to infect 100,000 people in the US with Ebola. You probably will infect over 15 million people in the US with flu every year. http://www.flu.gov/about_the_flu/seasonal/

Yes, if Ebola goes airborne and spreads rapidly, it would be a disaster. It doesn't easily spread in an airborne fashion yet, and there's little reason to think it will start doing so.

What if space aliens release some genetically engineered virus to try and wipe out the human race? What if we have a zombie infection like World War Z break out?

It's a lot more likely that we would have a more deadly form of flu. H5N1 "bird" flu has a mortality rate of around 60%, but it doesn't yet spread easily from human to human. Not yet anyway. It's a lot more likely than airborne Ebola since there are already aerial flu strains, just not highly deadly airborne flu strains yet.

Why not speculate about some new and nastier variant of smallpox coming back, either from some unknown animal reservoir or escaped from some lab? Smallpox killed something like 300 million people worldwide in the 20th century. We no longer have stocks of the vaccine.

How about a new, deadlier and more contagious version of SARS?

How about rabies? Nearly 100% fatal. Should we panic because it might become airborne?

How about any of the above diseases starting to spread via mosquito bites?

Why do I criticize the overblown reaction? It's the "Boy who cried wolf" problem.

The end result of all the panic over Ebola is going to be that after this blows over, and everyone realizes it was just media overreaction, the next time something real happens, the public is not going to take it serious.

You can speculate all you want. Some scenarios are possible. Some scenarios are highly unlikely. If you react to the highly unlikely scenarios, after a few false alarms, no one will pay attention any more.

The National Weather Service faces this problem all the time. A hurricane is heading for a major city. Your best guess is that there's a 10% chance it's going to hit the city and cause a lot of damage and deaths. Do you issue an evacuation order? Experience shows that after 2 or 3 "false alarm" evacuations, people ignore the warning the next time it comes out, just like they did with Katrina and Sandy.

[Toyz]

I quit reading at space aliens...if you are going to condescend to me when I'm trying to have an intelligent convo, you're just wasting my time....

Later Gneiss...